Posted on 10/07/2004 5:05:06 PM PDT by GiovannaNicoletta
Despite President Bush's unnerving performance in the first debate and subsequent slippage in nationwide polls, his prospects for November 2 in the Electoral College still look good.
Republican insiders believe their man is holding his lead in a few key "blue" states that Al Gore won narrowly in 2000: New Mexico, Iowa and Wisconsin. They also believe Bush remains strongly competitive in additional "blue" states, including Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan and Oregon.
Before last Thursday's debate, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll completed September 28 put Bush ahead of Kerry 49% to 46% among likely voters in Pennsylvania, although the same poll showed Kerry leading 49% to 45% among registered voters. A Detroit Free Press poll also completed September 28 similarly put Bush ahead of Kerry 50% to 48% among likely voters, while Kerry led 48% to 46% among registered voters.
A Strategic Vision poll in Minnesota, also completed September 28, showed Bush trailing Kerry in that traditionally Democratic state by only 2 points, 48% to 46%.
In Oregon, however, a Portland Tribune poll completed September 23 put Kerry up among likely voters, 50% to 43%.
Republicans believe that state ballot initiatives to ban same-sex marriage should help Bush in both Oregon and Michigan.
Same goes for Ohio, where Bush has maintained a healthy lead despite strong Democratic efforts in the state. A Columbus Dispatch poll completed October 1 put Bush over Kerry 51% to 44% among likely voters there.
In Florida, the deciding state in 2000, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll completed September 27 put Bush ahead of Kerry 52% to 43% among likely voters.
Democrats, meanwhile, are having difficulty finding a "red" state that went to Bush in 2000 where Kerry can win this year. For example, Republicans believe Bush has already locked up both Missouri and West Virginia.
Kerry's two best chances may be in New Hampshire and Colorado. But a post-debate University of New Hampshire poll completed October 3 showed Bush over Kerry, 50% to 45%, among likely voters in the Granite State. In Colorado, however, a Rocky Mountain News poll completed September 13 put Bush up by just one point among likely voters, 45% to 44%.
Unless he can succeed in using the two remaining presidential debates to force a fundamental shift in the underlying momentum of the campaign, Kerry may find himself in the final days of the campaign still playing defense in too many of the "blue" states and offense in too few of the "red."
Hope this is right, but when the headline is Bush "still" looking good, it reflects anxiety, and the possibility that the state polls are lagging indicators on the national polls.
All that is certain is that there are bound to be some unexpected twists and turns between now and Election Day.
Not for me. I'm going to vote on the first day of early voting, and I will only vote for straight Repubicans.
I am beginning to believe it was a head game for the Kerry campaign. I thought finding WMD was it.
I am so despondent over Baker allowing 3 debates, the spin after the debate, the polls, the DNC talking heads.
If only you were in a swing state!
I do recall reading in 2000 that Bush only needed Penn, Minn, or Wisconsin to seal the victory. I remember replying that mathematically, he could win without any of them, but it would be pretty. And it sure as heck wasn't.
TS
With any luck, this will all end well. I'd go through four more hurricanes if need be just to see W beat the hell out of the stinkin' Democrats.
A lot of Freepers ripped me on debate night when I said Bush lost it(in the second half of the debate) and that this would probably hurt his standings in the polls.
But since that night I can tell you that there's been a noticeable drop in enthusiasm on FR, compared to before the debate when the atmosphere here was noticeably elated.
The change is astounding.
I'm not saying everybody has given up, but it is obvious a lot of posters are disheartened.
I still think Bush can win this thing, but hope am hoping for a good showing tomorrow by the President.
VP Cheney said in the "joint-appearance", almost off-handedly, "Al-Zaqwhari is in Baghad" and gave a small smile.
Does that mean he will be "produced" in the next week or two?
Remember when the Iraqi's claimed to have killed him along with 40 other terrorists in Fallujah, then the next day they changed their story?
Inquiring minds want to know.
I am very confident about FL. Maybe another poster was right. It was worth it for GWB to spend a little less time preparing for the debate so he could comfort hurricane victims. That may well have locked up FL for him. Now he just has to get the momentum going back his way in OH. I think with FL and OH he cannot lose.
The polls in Oct. 2000 were all over the map with Gore and Bush both ahead at times by double digits.
What probably did Bush the most harm was the DUI October surprise and then the premature calling of Florida (and basically the election) for Gore. The DUI story caused a bunch of the holier than thou Christians to stay home and the premature calling of Florida cost Bush not only votes in the Florida Panhandle but probably cost him New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Oregon.
If this is true, it is brilliant strategery. When he wins it will the Dems wondering what truck hit them.
Keeping my fingers crossed. I heard a pundit the other day describe Jeb as perhaps the best governor in the USA. He said that unfortunately, it's hard to imagine the country accepting a third Bush president in 2008. What's the feeling there?
Hell Rove is scared to death to even go near Kerry's lies avbout Vietnam before congress and how he ruined the lives of the Vietam veterans or bring up that book he wrote
Shows the GOP is still a wimped out party
If Bush wins it won't be because of Rove's campaign but because of the Swifties
Kerry got no bounce from his convention and Bush did
He had a chance to drive a stake in Kerry's campaign that was in chaos and dispair
Now it is just the opposite
In addition Bush should be pounding on the liberal activist judges Kerry will appoint
I was depressed over the President's performance in the first debate, but now I'm fed up with this bleeping liberal media of ours. They are going overboard with their support for Kerry. How much free advertising do you figure the media have given to his campaign with their biased reporting? It's a wonder that Bush is even leading in the polls with this nonstop attack on him.
Bush's states are still solidly in his corner, save OH. OH will eventually break in his favor. But in the meantime, GWB is still poised to pick off a couple of Gore's smaller states like WI, IA, NM and MN.
MI and PA will come into play when GWB's numbers get again into the 50s. Once the debates are over, it is entirely possible that will happen again.
BTW, I was at a townhall meeting in Des Moines Monday am. Rove came out prior to it and look ebullient. He must know something. Bush was on FIRE.
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