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To: Ragtime Cowgirl; CheneyChick
FACTBOX: Afghan Presidential Election

On Saturday, 9 October, Afghanistan will hold its first-ever direct presidential ballot. The election is a major step in the post-Taliban democratic reforms known as the Bonn process.

WHO WILL VOTE?

Some 10.5 million Afghans are registered for the election. Women make up 41 percent of registered voters.

Afghan refugees living in Pakistan and Iran are expected to represent 10 percent of all votes cast.

The United Nations, which is organizing the polls, says there have been many multiple registrations. Voters will have their fingers marked with indelible ink on election day in an attempt to prevent multiple voting. Actual turnout is expected to be closer to 6 million.

WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?

There are 16 contenders out of an initial 18 registered candidates.

The incumbent, Afghan Transitional Administration Chairman Hamid Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun, is widely considered the front-runner.

Karzai's strongest challenger is expected to be Mohammad Yunos Qanuni, an ethnic Tajik.

Other key candidates include Uzbek commander Abdul Rashid Dostum; Mohammed Mohaqeq, a leader of the Hazara minority; and Mas'uda Jalal, the only female candidate.

WHEN WILL RESULTS BE AVAILABLE?

Partial results are expected by the middle of the week -- around 13 October.

A candidate must receive more than 50 percent of the votes in order to win a first-round victory. If no candidate wins a clear majority on 9 October, there will be a runoff between the two leading candidates. The runoff would likely be held in November.

Karzai is expected to win, but the large number of candidates may make it difficult for him to win in the first round.

A runoff could give Taliban rebels and other Islamic militants more opportunities to disrupt the democratic process in Afghanistan. Regional warlords who oppose a centralized government are also seen as a threat to peaceful elections.

A runoff could also compromise Karzai's authority and give him less freedom in selecting his cabinet.

WILL THE VOTE BE SAFE?

Militants and other elements have vowed to disrupt polling. At least a dozen election workers have died so far in a string of attacks.

Security issues are considered most pressing in the country's south and southeast.

Some 18,000 U.S.-led troops in Afghanistan battling militants will participate in securing the vote.

Another 9,000 NATO-commanded soldiers in the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), will patrol in the capital, Kabul, and much of the north.

They, together with some 60,000 Afghan police and troops will be fanning out to protect the roughly 5,000 polling stations throughout the country.

WHAT ARE THE ISSUES?

Ethnicity is likely to be a crucial factor in most Afghan votes.

Widespread illiteracy and limited campaigning by the candidates means few Afghans are familiar with all 16 candidates or their political platforms.

But general issues of concern include improving security, reducing poverty, and speeding reconstruction.

30 posted on 10/07/2004 11:22:37 AM PDT by TexKat (Just because you did not see it or read it, that does not mean it did or did not happen.)
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An Afghan man sits at historic Khajeh Abdullah Ansari's cemetery in Heart in Afghanistan on Thursday, Oct. 7, 2004. Afghanistan's first direct presidential elections will be held on October 9. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian)

Workers set up the tents that will be used to count the votes in the southern city of Kandahar, Afghanistan Thursday Oct. 7, 2004. After the last vote is cast by the last villager in the most remote of mountain hamlets, the next challenge of Afghanistan's first direct presidential election will start: counting the vote. Election officials and international observers acknowledge that inexperienced staff, inaccessible terrain and the typical chaos present in any nation emerging from a quarter-century of war will make tabulating the returns after Saturday's vote an unprecedented challenge. (AP Photo/Elizabeth Dalziel)

U.S Army soldiers patrol as trucks of U.N. election staff seen in the background during a convoy moving to Karokh area to distribute ballot boxes at Herat airport, Afghanistan, Thursday, Oct. 7, 2004. Afghanistan's first direct presidential elections will be held on Oct. 9. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian)

An Afghan member of U.N. election staff carries a ballot box during a convoy moving to Karokh area to distribute ballot boxes in Herat, Afghanistan, Thursday, Oct. 7, 2004. Afghanistan's first direct presidential elections will be held on Oct. 9. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian)

Afghans Say Trouble Inevitable But Won't Stop Vote

Thu Oct 7,11:09 AM ET World - Reuters

By Raju Gopalakrishnan

KABUL (Reuters) - Afghan President Hamid Karzai vowed on Thursday that a historic presidential election would be successfully held this weekend and reflect the people's wishes despite inevitable sabotage attempts by Taliban fighters.

U.S.-backed Karzai is the favorite to win Saturday's poll, which should legitimize his rule and mark a turning point for a country shattered by more than a quarter-century of war.

He said in a BBC interview he was aware guns and intimidation would play a role in the election.

"How long can we wait for the guns to go before we have elections?" Karzai said. "No election in the world is free of tension. Afghanistan is in a more serious situation because we are emerging out of war.

"But because of the massive enthusiasm and will of the Afghan people to go toward this election and to build their country in a democratic way, I very much hope this election will provide a result that they will like."

Taliban threats to attack anyone taking part in the vote have not stopped more than 10.5 million Afghans of a population of about 28 million, from registering to directly elect their president for the first time.

Women make up more than 40 percent of those who have registered, organizers say. An additional 1.3 million refugees in Pakistan and Iran are also eligible to participate.

The Islamic fundamentalist Taliban, ousted from power in 2001 by U.S.-led forces for refusing to hand over militant ally Osama bin Laden, repeated warnings on Thursday, saying fighters would do whatever they could to disrupt the vote.

"Those who wish to participate, despite the warning, can do so, but it will not be our responsibility if something happens to them," Taliban spokesman Abdul Latif Hakimi said by telephone.

The government said it was ready.

"There is no doubt that terrorists will try to disrupt the election process," said Interior Minister Ali Ahmad Jalali.

"If they attack an election site it will damage the process, but it cannot stop the election," he said.

The election has been held up as a foreign policy success and a victory for democracy by President Bush.

About 18,000 U.S.-led troops are hunting al Qaeda and Taliban leaders and helping a 42,000-strong Afghan police and military force and more than 8,000 NATO-led peacekeepers provide security for the vote.

Bush, who faces re-election himself next month, is hoping a smooth Afghan election could provide a model for January polls in Iraq, which has been plagued by violence since U.S.-led forces ousted Saddam Hussein last year.

FEAR IN THE SOUTH

Still, many in the south of Afghanistan, where Taliban fighters are most active, said women would not be voting.

"It is not because I am scared by the threat of violence," said turbaned, bearded Issa Mohammad, seated with a friend beside a dirt track on the outskirts of Kandahar city.

"It is just not in our tradition. Out of 100 families living in this area, I can tell you that no more than two or three of the women will have voter registration cards."

But plans are underway to ensure that the first person to cast a vote in the election will be a woman -- but she will be in Pakistan.

Polls open at 7 a.m. (0230 GMT) on Saturday in Afghanistan.

Polls for hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees in Pakistan will also open at 7 a.m., but time in Pakistan is half an hour ahead of that in their homeland, so the first vote will be cast at 0200 GMT.

The International Organization for Migration, which is conducting the refugee vote, said it arranged for an Afghan woman to be the first to mark her ballot at a polling station in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, at exactly 7 a.m. Pakistani time.

Karzai's message to the Afghan people has been that they should get out and vote, not necessarily for him.

"I urge you to vote freely, but I promise you that if someone else wins I will respect them and I will respect their vote. It is your choice," he said recently.

Two of the 18 candidates in the fray have said they were withdrawing in favor of Karzai. One was not considered to be very popular but the other, Sayed Ishaq Gailani, is from one of the country's best-known families.

Karzai has always been the favorite to win, but the move by Gailani, a fellow ethnic Pashtun, could help him win the required 51 percent of the vote he needs to avoid a November run-off.

While Karzai is easily the best-known candidate, Afghanistan's patchwork of ethnic groups could work against him if voting is on community lines. Pashtuns, the traditional rulers of Pakistan, make up about 40 percent of the population and Gailani's withdrawal will help avoid a split in the Pashtun vote. (With additional reporting by Sayed Salahuddin and David Fox)

31 posted on 10/07/2004 11:52:07 AM PDT by TexKat (Just because you did not see it or read it, that does not mean it did or did not happen.)
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