i think that turnout will be +4-5 for the DEMs. 39% might be too high though.
I could happen, but it's doubtful in my mind. Most of the major polling companies that do not weight polls ask generic party IDs at the beginning of each poll before each poll, especially Gallup and Pew. For the year so far after about 40,000 interviews, Gallup has it even leaning to 0.5 GOP advantage. Pew, with about half as many interviews has it about +1 or +2 Dem advantage, IIRC.
The funny thing is that if you do the Ruy Texiera thing and believe that party ID doesn't move any and stays constant at 39D-35R-26I (something which I don't believe), Kerry actually lost 0.5% from being +1.61% in the 9/9-9/10 poll to being +1.06% in this poll. Go figure.
Newsweek polls don't have the world's greatest track record. But my feeling from the beginning is that the gains Kerry will make in these unweighted polls will be in terms of partisan energy, not much else. We will see when we get to more unweighted polls, like Gallup, Pew, CBS, ABC, etc.