Bush did make a gaffe. He didnt respond and didnt attak Kerry.
Democracy Corps Poll has Bush up by two points.
http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_September_30_2004_1st_Debate_Survey.pdf
CNN/Gallup poll shows no change after 1st Debate.
What if the Newsweek poll is nothing but propaganda? Like the Harris poll at the start of Sept that claimed "Bush's convention bounch is gone"? Funny how the bad new for Bush polls are treated as gospel by a certain sect of Freepers and the ones that show bad new for Kerry are "suspicous" Why is that?
Your opinion is noted. Thanks for sharing.
Now let it go...get out of the way...and let us win!
Gosh, why are you commenting on a debate you evidently didn't watch?!
Relax Freepers. Bush is still ahead by a good margin, this debate and the remaining will have little effect.
The latest Newsweek poll is at variance with the other polls released thus far (other polls indicate that those polled believe that Kerry won the debate, but still have Bush ahead with little change in voter preferences).
Gallup, Princeton, et.al. might say that the numbers of Republicans and Democrats included in the survey varying with surveys has no affect (due to variance in what those polled consider themselves), but don't believe it. Thats one of the reasons why the various polls vary 5- 6% with each other. The huge change in the Republican/Democrat ratio alone accounts for the apparent dramatic Newsweek poll numbers shift:
|
Newsweek Poll |
|
Reg. Voter Subgroup |
10/2/04 |
9/11/04 |
Republicans |
345 |
391 |
Democrats |
364 |
300 |
Rep/Dem Ratio |
0.95 |
1.30 |
The Data:
-------
Newsweek Poll First Presidential Debate Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results (10/2/04)
Totals Bush/Cheney 45 Kerry Edwards 47
Nader/Camejo 2
N = 1,013 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 30-October 2, 2004 (interviewing on 9/30 limited to the Pacific and Mountain time zones after the presidential debate concluded)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS: 1,144 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 1,013 Total Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
481 Men (plus or minus 5)
532 Women (plus or minus 5) 345 Republicans (plus or minus 6) 364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
278 Independents (plus or minus 7)
Source:
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=
----------
Newsweek Poll Post-Labor Day Princeton Survey Research Associates International Final Topline Results (9/11/04)
Totals Bush/Cheney 49 Kerry Edwards 43
Nader/Camejo 2
N = 1,003 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 9-10, 2004
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS: 1,166 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 1,003 Registered voters (plus or minus 4) 391 Republicans (plus or minus 6) 300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
270 Independents (plus or minus 7)
481 Men (plus or minus 5)
Source: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040911/nysa006_1.html