Posted on 09/23/2004 10:40:45 PM PDT by Lando Lincoln
CNN's polling shows that George Bush has a grip on 301 Electoral College votes based on state-by-state polling, with John Kerry fading in the Midwest and his chances of unseating the incumbent fading fast:
President Bush this week reached a symbolic milestone, overtaking Democratic challenger John Kerry in New Hampshire and Iowa to claim more than 300 electoral votes in CNN's weekly Electoral College scorecard.
If the election were held today, Bush would receive 301 electoral votes to Kerry's 237, according to a CNN survey based on state polling as well as interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts. ...
Bush currently leads in 33 states, including the country's entire southern rim (except California) and the mountain and plains regions. Kerry leads in the District of Columbia and the remaining 17 states, including all of the West Coast and most of the Northeast. The two candidates continue to battle for control of the industrial Midwest.
One Democratic strategist gave an interesting analysis: the candidate who controls the Mississippi controls America, a proverb going back to the Civil War. Right now, that candidate is George Bush, who leads in almost every state that borders on the river. Kerry gave up yesterday on Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri, and have always led in most other river states. Only Illinois has been solidly Democratic, although recent returns there have indicated it might be back in play, even given the disastrous candidacy of Alan Keyes for the open Senate seat. Wisconsin has turned into an almost certain win for Bush, and Minnesota -- which hasn't gone GOP for thirty-two years -- is a dead heat.
Take a look at this sea of red:
And this assumes that Kerry takes Pennsylvania, which has begun to look more reddish-purple than bluish-purple of late. Minnesota and Maryland have trended GOP the past month as well, and even New York may be within the margin of error. Kerry is in deep trouble.
NO Complacency!..But I like positive polls even though I don't trust them.
Kerry is definitely fading in the Midwest. I'm from Illinois & G.W. isn't that far behind here & you all know what a dem-o-state Illinois is!
The final map will look a lot like that, but with a red PA and MN.
Pretty much looks like the map I had all along - I recently added one EV for Maine and Bush leads with 322 EVs (up from 321 earlier today when I didn't give him one EV from Maine, which I hear he would get if the election was held today).
Add Oregon & Minnesota and you get 339. The bad news is I don't see any more EVs for Dubya on the map, sorry.
this make me feel better every day, but I'll really relax after sKerry gives his concession speech and Bush is sworn in as President (again) comes January.
With Memogate ready to break wide open, we can kick Kerry goodbye.
Mighty fine looking map.
What else do you think is going to break open?
And if the Electoral College was eliminated, those blue states would run the entire country.
I have this funny hunch California is going to surprise you all ;-)
I say we go for California and New York.
I agree - I think California is going Bush.
Actually, 339 would qualify as a near-landslide. That's where I think we'll be, 339/199. Dubya with nearly 55%.
The red in Maine is on the wrong side of the state. The guy gives one electoral vote out of Maine for Bush at this point, which I think is right, but he mixed up the CD's. LOL. I think the map might be close to right, except for New Mexico maybe, if the the election were held today. But it isn't being held today, and Florida is skin tight, along with Iowa, which is dead even. And without New Mexico and Florida, Bush wins in the House, and without Bush winning Iowa, Kerry wins. This election is still tight.
from your lips to God's ears...
Why are we RED again? I thought incumbents were blue.
I'd love it, but I just don't see CA going for Bush. We all said the same thing in 2000 and it wasn't even close.
That said, Kerry won't even get 200 electoral votes.
Hello fellow Illinoian. Can you please tell me what you have seen as far as the latest Illinois polls?
In the most recent poll, Bush is down by 15% in California. Bush will only will California in a rout. It isn't going to happen. Ditto New York. That one is crazy, unless Bush wins by at least a 10% margin, and more likely 15%.
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