| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | electoral votes | |
| Alabama | 96 | 9 | 8.64 |
| Alaska | 96 | 3 | 2.88 |
| Arizona | 83 | 10 | 8.3 |
| Arkansas | 80 | 6 | 4.8 |
| California | 9.5 | 55 | 5.225 |
| Colorado | 76 | 9 | 6.84 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 7 | 0.49 |
| Delaware | 18 | 3 | 0.54 |
| District of Columbia | 1 | 3 | 0.03 |
| Florida | 70 | 27 | 18.9 |
| Georgia | 97 | 15 | 14.55 |
| Hawaii | 10 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Idaho | 96 | 4 | 3.84 |
| Illinois | 12 | 21 | 2.52 |
| Indiana | 96 | 11 | 10.56 |
| Iowa | 45 | 7 | 3.15 |
| Kansas | 96 | 6 | 5.76 |
| Kentucky | 92 | 8 | 7.36 |
| Louisiana | 91 | 9 | 8.19 |
| Maine | 28 | 4 | 1.12 |
| Maryland | 16 | 10 | 1.6 |
| Massachusetts | 4 | 12 | 0.48 |
| Michigan | 28 | 17 | 4.76 |
| Minnesota | 41.8 | 10 | 4.18 |
| Mississippi | 96 | 6 | 5.76 |
| Missouri | 80 | 11 | 8.8 |
| Montana | 94 | 3 | 2.82 |
| Nebraska | 97.5 | 5 | 4.875 |
| Nevada | 65 | 5 | 3.25 |
| New Hampshire | 54.9 | 4 | 2.196 |
| New Jersey | 23 | 15 | 3.45 |
| New Mexico | 42 | 5 | 2.1 |
| New York | 8 | 31 | 2.48 |
| North Carolina | 93 | 15 | 13.95 |
| North Dakota | 96 | 3 | 2.88 |
| Ohio | 73.7 | 20 | 14.74 |
| Oklahoma | 97 | 7 | 6.79 |
| Oregon | 36 | 7 | 2.52 |
| Pennsylvania | 45 | 21 | 9.45 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 4 | 0.16 |
| South Carolina | 97 | 8 | 7.76 |
| South Dakota | 96 | 3 | 2.88 |
| Tennessee | 85 | 11 | 9.35 |
| Texas | 98 | 34 | 33.32 |
| Utah | 97 | 5 | 4.85 |
| Vermont | 8 | 3 | 0.24 |
| Virginia | 91 | 13 | 11.83 |
| Washington | 24.5 | 11 | 2.695 |
| West Virginia | 77 | 5 | 3.85 |
| Wisconsin | 62 | 10 | 6.2 |
| Wyoming | 97 | 3 | 2.91 |
| Totals | 538 | 297.221 |
That previous posting is a weighting of the number of electoral votes Bush will receive by how likely he is to win each state. For instance, if Bush has a 50-50 chance of winning a given state, he is credited with 50% of that states electoral votes. So the 4th column is how many weighted electoral votes he will receive.
Because the odds of his winning each state are statistically linked (i.e., doing well in one state is correlated with doing well with another state), the actual number of electoral vote result will probably be much less close.
Statistics major? ;^)