Posted on 09/20/2004 4:17:19 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 83.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 80.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 9.5 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 76.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 18.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 70.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 97.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 10.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 96.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 12.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 96.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 45.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 92.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 91.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 28.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 16.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 4.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 28.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 41.8 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 80.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 94.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 97.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 65.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 54.9 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 23.0 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 42.0 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 8.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 73.7 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 36.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 45.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 97.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 85.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 98.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 97.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 8.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 91.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 24.5 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 77.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 62.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 97.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 288 | 250 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 288 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 250 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 297.22 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
That line just keeps on rising. A few more weeks to go, and the whole map will be turning blue.
Don't get complacent....Volunteer your time at your local Republican Victory Center or County GOP. Here is the search link for your state.
http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=republican+victory+center&fr=ieas
No sugar coating here, that I can see.
Looking good.
IT does make a difference when you volunteer. Call and write your local opinion radio shows and letter to the editors
Hopefully they will keep the Fraud out on the campaign trail. Look at your graph - the only time GW fell below 270 was in August, when Fraud was totally off the air and out of sight. The more the public sees this foole, the less they like him.
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
| 07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
| 07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
| 07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
| 08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
| 08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
| 08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
| 08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
| 08/30 | 56.1% | 276.4 | 35.0 |
| 09/06 | 65.0% | 284.1 | 35.0 |
| 09/13 | 73.7% | 291.5 | 34.2 |
| 09/20 | 80.1% | 297.3 | 33.4 |
I wish this election would hurry up and get here.
Looks good, but I think in the end, PA and Oregon will also go to Bush.
The slate for Maine should be divided into:
Maine (overall) 2 e-votes
Maine 1st District 1 e-vote
Maine 2nd District 1 e-vote
Although Maine is a close net Kerry right now... Maine's electors are awarded on a congressional district basis. And in the northern (non-communist) Maine 2nd congressional district, Bush is pulling well ahead; although as of yet not enough for the whole state.
Make it 3, not 4 e-votes for Kerry, and 1 for Bush.
Bush is coming back up to campaign in central Maine this week, so it's clear Rove realizes Maine's in play.
So do I. Our son called me last night, and told him that he argued with his grandmother over President Bush, whom my son and his wife support.
She has evidently bought the AARP bait, hook line and sinker.
I'm going to visit her a week from today...I'll just tell her Hub and I and our daughter and her (dem) husband are ALL supporting President Bush, if she asks.
I HATE making my dear old stepmother feel left out, BUT nothing will change our support for the President. NOTHING!
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | electoral votes | |
| Alabama | 96 | 9 | 8.64 |
| Alaska | 96 | 3 | 2.88 |
| Arizona | 83 | 10 | 8.3 |
| Arkansas | 80 | 6 | 4.8 |
| California | 9.5 | 55 | 5.225 |
| Colorado | 76 | 9 | 6.84 |
| Connecticut | 7 | 7 | 0.49 |
| Delaware | 18 | 3 | 0.54 |
| District of Columbia | 1 | 3 | 0.03 |
| Florida | 70 | 27 | 18.9 |
| Georgia | 97 | 15 | 14.55 |
| Hawaii | 10 | 4 | 0.4 |
| Idaho | 96 | 4 | 3.84 |
| Illinois | 12 | 21 | 2.52 |
| Indiana | 96 | 11 | 10.56 |
| Iowa | 45 | 7 | 3.15 |
| Kansas | 96 | 6 | 5.76 |
| Kentucky | 92 | 8 | 7.36 |
| Louisiana | 91 | 9 | 8.19 |
| Maine | 28 | 4 | 1.12 |
| Maryland | 16 | 10 | 1.6 |
| Massachusetts | 4 | 12 | 0.48 |
| Michigan | 28 | 17 | 4.76 |
| Minnesota | 41.8 | 10 | 4.18 |
| Mississippi | 96 | 6 | 5.76 |
| Missouri | 80 | 11 | 8.8 |
| Montana | 94 | 3 | 2.82 |
| Nebraska | 97.5 | 5 | 4.875 |
| Nevada | 65 | 5 | 3.25 |
| New Hampshire | 54.9 | 4 | 2.196 |
| New Jersey | 23 | 15 | 3.45 |
| New Mexico | 42 | 5 | 2.1 |
| New York | 8 | 31 | 2.48 |
| North Carolina | 93 | 15 | 13.95 |
| North Dakota | 96 | 3 | 2.88 |
| Ohio | 73.7 | 20 | 14.74 |
| Oklahoma | 97 | 7 | 6.79 |
| Oregon | 36 | 7 | 2.52 |
| Pennsylvania | 45 | 21 | 9.45 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 4 | 0.16 |
| South Carolina | 97 | 8 | 7.76 |
| South Dakota | 96 | 3 | 2.88 |
| Tennessee | 85 | 11 | 9.35 |
| Texas | 98 | 34 | 33.32 |
| Utah | 97 | 5 | 4.85 |
| Vermont | 8 | 3 | 0.24 |
| Virginia | 91 | 13 | 11.83 |
| Washington | 24.5 | 11 | 2.695 |
| West Virginia | 77 | 5 | 3.85 |
| Wisconsin | 62 | 10 | 6.2 |
| Wyoming | 97 | 3 | 2.91 |
| Totals | 538 | 297.221 |
Thanks for the ping. I wanted to point out that a round of polling in Pennsylvania has placed the President out in front and I think he's doing much better in Iowa also.
That previous posting is a weighting of the number of electoral votes Bush will receive by how likely he is to win each state. For instance, if Bush has a 50-50 chance of winning a given state, he is credited with 50% of that states electoral votes. So the 4th column is how many weighted electoral votes he will receive.
Because the odds of his winning each state are statistically linked (i.e., doing well in one state is correlated with doing well with another state), the actual number of electoral vote result will probably be much less close.
4 times more likely to win Mass than DC. LOL.
Statistics major? ;^)
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