Report from Chappaqua: No downside for Hillary if she replaces Kerry on the ticket..

one man's opinion

[ken5050]

As many of you know, I have over the past four years occasionally chronicled the Clintons, from the perspective of what one hears and observes from Beautiful Downtown Chappaqua. Many Freepers have told me how much they enjoy my commentaries. I've ignored the rumors, the innuendos, the "tin-foil hat" theories. Indeed, there are many more very interesting details that I have deliberately chosen NOT to share with all of you. What I'm going to discuss now is admitted speculation on my part, but based upon a few conversations I've had in the last few days..and you'll have to trust my instincts on my sources..OK..here goes..

[carenot]

Replacing Kerry involves lots of weird issues I think.

Well, Kerry IS a weird issue.

[upchuck]

Two words why the Hildabeaste won't run in 2004 and also why she may not run in 2008: Peter Paul.

On the other hand... Hillary is the absolute, perfect personification of evil and the antithesis of everything that defines our country. IMHO, she and her husband may well be the Anti-Christ. Those who wish her to be POTUS are mentally weak and easily lead.

[AGreatPer]

Ping to yaya123. I have been saying this for two years.

Ken, excellent!

[jnarcus]

I won't flame you...just to let you know This ain't a gonna happen...What is going to happen is that Kerry will lose, Hillary will gear up for 2008 via 2006...Win or lose the Demorats will chose her because they want a Clinton back in the WH...This ain't rocket science after all...These are the same wonderkind who thought up the forged document scenario

[blue jeans]

There's alot of churning gears in your mind on this stuff.

Here's my theory on what happened (just a theory mind you).... Clinton has the conversation from the hospital telling him to stay away from Nam (all the while telling his guys to go forward with the made-up documents). He then has it revealed that he told JFK to stay away from Nam (to make it look like JFK didn't take Bill's sage advice and making XXX42 look completely innocent)

The documents torpedo JFK just because they bring the attention back to Nam (in that it looks like he can't get past the war and deal with today's issues and voters are tired of it). Also it keeps the Swifties still in the picture (hurting Kerry all the while).

And if the documents end up being found out as a forgery... then no harm done... as it came through Kerry campaign (as two good as a pair of torpedos!).

That's just my theory but I wouldn't but I wouldn't put it past Hurricane Billary for a minute! Remember Jim McDoogall talking about the Clintons being a Hurricane and destroying everything they touch. Well first it finally left the country after 8 years (& economy and security were certainly victims of em) and now it's finally hitting the Democratic party... and it hasn't even gone out to sea yet (as it looks like Kerryville is where the eye of the storm currently is!)

[BriarBey]

The moment this happens everyone will assume this has been a Clinton setup from the very beginning.
*****

I think you're wrong with this statement. Only the conservatives seem to see the Clintons for what they are, the liberals believe them to be gods. Plus there goes the black vote because we all know, Clinton is just a blackman trapped in a whiteman's body!!! (sarcasm)

[Vinnie]

I agree with you and have said so all along.
Hillary is politically tone deaf. She couldn't possibly compete in a normal primary- long campaign election.
IMO.. there are only two possible scenarios for Hillary.

She is totally managed, and I don't think it is possible for her to avoid impromptu questioning in a long campaign ( although Kerry has done so these last 30+ days). She would be terrible in a debate.
or..

She pulls the Torricelli gambit.
She avoids the primaries, long campaigning, maybe even any debates.
At least 50% of women will swoon over her.

IMHO.. the Repubs had better have 'plan b ' lined up.

[NYCVirago]

Not to most women.

She's the most disliked Democrat out there, even surpassing Ted Kennedy in a recent poll.

[Truthsearcher]

This idea that women love Hillary is the biggest load of crap.

Democratic women love her, but then again Democratic women love all democrats anyway.

Plus there will be far more male swing voters who will vote against her than there will be female swing voters who will vote for her.

Hillary is simply not the powerhouse candidate so many of you think she is, I think you're all spooked by the Clinton years.

[Maria S]

"Hillary has already got her petitions in for all 50 states. Theoretically she is on more ballots than Nader should she wish to run."


What's the website so I can see this for myself?

[reformedliberal]

During the Wisconsin primary, the State Party Chair sent out a memo to all the Clerks to the effect that it was legal to count write-ins for Hillary. After the primary, we heard nothing at all about how she did.

I am reading "American Evita". In 1999 (IIRC; could have been 1998) Hillary asked Dick Morris to poll her chances of becoming President. The poll went against her. I think it was 26% absolutely hated her and another 30%+/- just didn't want her as POTUS. She didn't believe it and had Morris poll again. Same results.

Hillary has a tin ear, politically. She is used to having the MSM and the power of the Presidency to run interference for her. Witness the pardons-for-votes deals he cooked up for her as she ran for Senate. She was lucky in the Senate bid. She was afraid of John Kennedy, but then he dies. She was terrified of Rudy Gulliani and is reported to have been laughing hysterically over the disclosure of his indiscretions. Her staff was delighted when Rudy was diagnosed w/cancer. She deals w/bad press by ignoring it or outright lying or having her posse destroy her opponent. IMO, that Donk cadre of flak catchers has just struck out for the 2nd time since they lucked out and got BJ elected with only 43% of the vote.

IMO, the national political climate in 2008 isn't going to favor a Dem and if we still fighting terrorists, it won't favor a woman. Rudy will be waiting to see what she does in order to checkmate her. The party looks about to split between the far progressive left and the centrist DLC, which is the Clinton wing. This may mean she cannot get the nomination from her own party or, if she does, it will be from the center and the far progressive wing may or may not go along.

Also: Harold Ford, Jr will finally be old enough to run. So will Barack Obama.

I just don't see her succeeding and she may decide not to try. Almost any Dem POTUS would nominate her for AG or the SCOTUS. If we add Senate seats in the 2006 midterms, that might decide her. A GOP Senate might not confirm her to any executive or judicial position. Her vaunted database of former Reagan and Bush41 adminstration officials is going to be way out of date by 2008. Even if it was such a powerful tool, funny she couldn't shoot down Cheney, Rummy or Ashcroft with it, let alone W.

One final thing against Hillary ever being POTUS: she is caught up in some campaign contribution scandals that will go to trial and the Flowers trial will go forward accusing her of having her staff intimidate Flowers. There is so much negative information about her, she may decide not to put herself thru that.

I don't doubt the Clintonistas are discussing alternatives. They are nothing w/o Hillary.

[Maria S]

Because of where you live, I respect what you may know or have heard.

My only question to you or anyone else: Would it be legit for Hillary to replace Kerry? What would have to happen for her to run as president?

This is a scary scenario, IMO!

[tame]

FYI...I feel a little nervous putting this down on paper. Someone had to..

Actually, about a couple of weeks ago, I already mentioned to Mr. Tonk on another thread that there is the possibility that we could be TOO successful in demolishing Kerry with the result that Hillary would replace him.

It's possible, but I don't think it will happen barring an unusual catastrophe. I believe Hillary wants to do a full campaign to win.

[Brian Allen]

My Grandma says if my aunt had b*lls she'd be my uncle!

[counterpunch]

Your theory is impossible.
I have explained this to many a Clinton conspiracy theorist in other posts. It's quite simple, really.

There is a limited timeframe in which a candidate can get on the ballot. The deadline varies from state to state. Such a bait-and-switch campaign would require getting put on ballots state by state. Ralph Nader has already failed to qualify in time in most states. Most of these deadlines have already passed now.

Yes, Hillary could get on the ballot in New Jersey. The corrupt politicians and bought judges would see to it.
It is an entirely different situation for the other 49, though. With the majority of Governors and state legislators in the hands of Republicans now, it ain't gonna happen. The Democrats may find some friendly judges here and there, but not enough to get on enough state ballots to even win an electoral victory should she sweep every state she runs in. The California Supreme Court would almost certainly not allow her on here, believe it or not. That alone would make the election a lost cause.

Lets also not forget that Hillary's personal negatives are above 50% and she has been voted "most despised Democrat" or something of the like (which she claims as a badge of honor while at the same time saying that Bush-hatred is a good enough reason to vote Democrat.)

It would be the worst political debacle in history. No Democrat would come out of it unscathed. Seriously wounded. Given that a New Jersey style switcheroo would seriously piss off the vast majority of Americans and add the rancid icing on the Democrats' stinking cake of corruption, the Democrat party would be finished. Not that its not shaping up to be looking that way anyways.

[mombrown1]

Some time months ago I vaguely remember hearing that she had filed some papers somewhere just in case. As a dem she would not have to qualify the same way Nader does, state by state.

[TheRedSoxWinThePennant]

With Hillary at the head of the ticket, Democratic coffers fill to overflowing. Republicans, having shot their wad defining Kerry, have to scrounge to get the funds to compete with Hillary.

I think repub coffers would overflow the moment Hillary entered the race. She would be much more energizing to our base than the dems.

[YaYa123]

I slowly scrolled through this thread...cause I knew I'd find you here. Let's tell ken5050 he ain't got nuthin on you. This is your story , and ohmigawd, have you stuck to it...like ticks on a junkyard dawg!

But nope...I'm not buying it, not for a second. If Kerry dropped dead tomorrow, or declared himself physically unable to continue the campaign, (because of recurrence of cancer, or that schrapnel he picked up in Viet Nam moving to his brain...whatever reason you can dream up,) Hillary would not run this time around.

But NOOOOOOO, you won't believe me! and I bet ken5050 won't either.

[DoctorMichael]

I've always enjoyed your infrequent postings.............

I'm in for a Bttt