Report from Chappaqua: No downside for Hillary if she replaces Kerry on the ticket..

one man's opinion

[ken5050]

As many of you know, I have over the past four years occasionally chronicled the Clintons, from the perspective of what one hears and observes from Beautiful Downtown Chappaqua. Many Freepers have told me how much they enjoy my commentaries. I've ignored the rumors, the innuendos, the "tin-foil hat" theories. Indeed, there are many more very interesting details that I have deliberately chosen NOT to share with all of you. What I'm going to discuss now is admitted speculation on my part, but based upon a few conversations I've had in the last few days..and you'll have to trust my instincts on my sources..OK..here goes..

[discostu]

There's the elector issue, but then you still have to deal with the states where electors must vote (at least once, varies by state) for the candidate that was on the ballot. So in order for a switch to work not only will the Democrat slot need to secure the magic 270, they'll have to make sure and hold onto the 270 through at least 2 rounds of electoral college voting (or blow the doors off the election so bad the people that must vote for Kerry once won't drop them below 270). Pretty hairy stuff, lots of hard backroom politicing, and on top of that she said during the 2000 recount that she was against the electoral college which could give Rove some good ammo for counter politicing in the backroom. And somehow I think Karl is a better backroom brawler than Hilary, he can use the carrot and the stick, Hillary is all stick all the time.

Now one interesting consideration: what does a Hillary 08 candidacy to for Jeb? Right now I don't think Jeb can run until 2020 if at all, the "royalty" issue (venerial transmission of power) hurt George W in 2000 and I think is still hurting him today, and would be positively brutal for Jeb. But if he's running against another former president's spouse the royalty issue should pretty much disappear.

[discostu]

Depends on the states they carry. Some states force their electors to vote for the guys on the ballot at least once, some don't. If they carry too many of the former it'll have to go to a second (or higher) ballot in the EC. I think, but I'm not sure, there's at least one state where they can't switch at all, so that lock down could prevent a replacement ticket from ever getting past the magic number.

Because the state laws vary so much it's not cut and dry. it would be really ugly, and might still result in a second term for Bush.

[Publius]

thank you for that information. however - it ain't gonna happen.

You're welcome, and I hope you're right. But in a number of similar threads, I've weighed in with the constitutional and legal issues of a ticket switch rather than the political issues, and I've been flamed in language that almost made me reach for the Abuse button. I've written down the names of FReepers who have said this can't possibly happen and I'm a stupid clymer for even suggesting it, and -- God forbid! -- if Hillary pulls off a switcheroo, I'm going to contact each and every one of them and make them eat some crow.

I hope you're right.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Even with the RATmedia baying at full blast Hillary will NEVER get more than 42% of the vote.

This would be a dream come true for me but she can easily see there is no chance for her to win. Will NOT happen.

[NYCVirago]

I disagree. Hillary is waiting until 2008. There's no upside for her in running now. While she may energize the Dem's base more, she also would energize the Repub base even more, and she's a turnoff to swing voters.

[winodog]

I agree. I also like what another freeper mentioned. The P. is too dam hard a job and takes a lot of work. I dont think she can do the heavy lifting required to run.

As long as Rudy does not want her senate seat she is set for life with a cozy very powerful job that requires little work. She is likely to stay where she is.

One other possibility. The war on terror might go very bad and we might very well be looking at a major recession sometime in W's next term. That means a dem P. and maybe a supreme court justice nomination for the witch.

She will take the easy way out instead of being embarrased by losing the dem nomination in 08. America is not ready for a female P. and most certainly not slicks wife. At least thats MHO.

[hershey]

Well, well, it looks as if Hill's recent speech lessons were all for naught! Who knew?

[riri]

and she's a turnoff to swing voters

Not to most women.

[justshutupandtakeit]

RATfunds have been severely depleted by the Fraud. Bush has not been running against Kerry, he is a non-entity, they have been running on their record.

If Hillary would jump in at the last minute there would be anti-Hillary 527s form so fast your head would spin. And they would not be playing nice but would be throwing hardballs at her head so fast she would wish Bob Feller was throwing them.

[Publius]

...but then you still have to deal with the states where electors must vote (at least once, varies by state) for the candidate that was on the ballot. So in order for a switch to work not only will the Democrat slot need to secure the magic 270... etc.

You're right. But when the parties put various versions of "Operation 270" on their battle plans after 1968, they documented the rules for each state.

It would be fiendishly difficult, but if the margin were big enough, it would be doable.

...somehow I think Karl is a better backroom brawler than Hilary...

You'll get no argument from me on that. Our team is better than theirs.

Right now I don't think Jeb can run until 2020 if at all, the "royalty" issue (venerial transmission of power) hurt George W in 2000 and I think is still hurting him today, and would be positively brutal for Jeb.

Did you have to use the term "venerial"? I'm cringing with pain just thinking about it.

[Veto!]

Even if every word you say is true, what good would it do Hillary? She has millions of admirers, but even more detractors and they hate her. She'll never be president, not by hook and not by crook. IMHO.

[txhurl]

I've expected Hillary to *swoosh* into the race for over a year, and now I wonder about what's Oprah's big announcement gonna be.

[Publius]

RATfunds have been severely depleted by the Fraud.

Isn't it wonderful what a real political boner will do for your opposition?

But if Hillary were to successfully pull off a switcheroo, the Democratic coffers would fill to overflowing. Of course, there are enough people who would crawl over broken glass to vote against her that our own coffers might well recharge nicely.

[Veto!]

I don't think the system could accomodate, or the people tolerate, a replacement candidate scenario.

I agree. Unless, of course, Kerry conveniently dies. Ahem.

[Dr. Eckleburg]

I don't think this will happen.

I also don't think it's smart to spend time battling the Clintgoons right now. We need to concentrate on Kerry, period.

There are still two months to go. And a cornered, wounded democrat is more dangerous than ever.

[Doc Savage]

Does this mean that Hillary would have sex with an female intern in the Oral Office????????? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm!

[Patton@Bastogne]

.


Ken and PubliusF16Fighter


Ken, you forgot #6.

6. With Hillary at the head of the ticket, Democratic coffers fill to overflowing. Republicans, having shot their wad defining Kerry, have to scrounge to get the funds to compete with Hillary.



Great Reason # Seven:

Bush-Cheney 2004 have spent a couple hundred million defining for America the potential disaster of the Kerry-Edwards ticket.

With Kerry's "drop-out", that $ 200 million and 50 cents gets you a cup of coffee at the IHOP Pancake House.

However, the $ 200 million that Kerry (et al) has spent attacking Bush-Cheney is still worth it's weight in gold.

THEN, you kick-in the additional FREE $ 200 million worth of FREE Main Stream Media "advertising" (Nightly News Stories and weeks of Front-Page speculation-coverage) ...

Concluding that Kerry as the "ex-candidate is actually worth $ 400 million in "very scarce" campaign funds.



Great Reason # Eight:

ALL Swift-Boat-Veterans-For-Truth activites are 100 % nullified.



Great Reason # Nine:

William Jefferson Clinton enters the Campaign at Warp-Factor-Nine, which means, by the way, that all that Heart By-Pass Surgey was just the Opening Act for this scenario.



Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website




.

[Cincinna]

A slow news day I guess ......but I don't believe this would be possible.
The Kerry campaign is being run by the Clintonistas who are making sure he goes down in flames. The Clintons retain McAwful and control of the Democrat Party.

Slick had quad bypass surgery one week ago. The recovery time is 6-8 weeks under the best of circumstances. It is a slow and painful recovery requiring daily therapy and rest and special diet and medication.
Without Slick, Hitlery is nothing. He is the political brains in the family,she has a tin ear politically. He could not campaign for her, make speeches etc. He micro-managed her Senatorial run,he couldn't do that now.

She is lining up her ducks for 2008.

[discostu]

Yeah, they know the rules, and so do the reps.

Yeah it's kind of a nasty phrase huh, stole it from a friend, and it explains Prince Charles so well.

[Mark in the Old South]

I very much doubt Hillary will ever be elected President. I do believe it is likely the demoncrats will hang their hopes on her running, 2008 for sure, 2004 not so sure. We are talking the "New Jersey" solution here. That will play very well in places like NJ, DNC HQ and the Clintoon penthouse but flyover country will react very poorly. She will loose in 2004 and be tainted for 2008 and beyond. In fact I doubt she will ever get the 2008 nomination after loosing 2004 for what will look like the Machiavellian Plot that it is. Remember the Wellstone funeral? Watch what happens in NJ this November with the Presidential election, possibly next fall in their Gov race. Add to this a possible loss for the Senate for Ms Rood-him and it doesn't look pretty.

Demoncrats may be grasping at straws now (I doubt NOT they will make very bad decisions during their period of insanity) but they will have four years to hear back from their evil minions in OH, PA, MN, FL araggggggggg. If there are any sane demoncrats left they will sink the good ship SS CLINTOON (SS stands for super stupid) in 2008. In the final analysis I just do not look under my bed at night for the Hit-lery monster. Her nomination will energize the vast right wing into unprecedented levels. Christians even those who vote for demoncrats would vote against her. She is a niche candidate, only viable in very liberal districts and states. Why do you think she went to NY in the first place?