Posted on 09/13/2004 12:27:52 PM PDT by ken5050
As many of you know, I have over the past four years occasionally chronicled the Clintons, from the perspective of what one hears and observes from Beautiful Downtown Chappaqua. Many Freepers have told me how much they enjoy my commentaries. I've ignored the rumors, the innuendos, the "tin-foil hat" theories. Indeed, there are many more very interesting details that I have deliberately chosen NOT to share with all of you. What I'm going to discuss now is admitted speculation on my part, but based upon a few conversations I've had in the last few days..and you'll have to trust my instincts on my sources..OK..here goes..
It's too late. Most state deadlines for hgetting on the ballot have already passed, states are getting ready to send absentee ballots. If she was gonna pull the switch she had to do it before the RNC ended. And really why would she want to pull the switch? Incumbents win most of the time, she knows that she got where she is via a statistically rare incumbent loss, and she's smart enough not to expect lightning twice. She's staging for 08, 04 has never been a valid target for her. Expect her to spend a lot of time in 06 campaigning for other people, if any of the wierd states (you know who you are) gave gubenotorial elections in 07 expect her to be all over those. Wins by candidates she helps in 06 and 07 will be considered wins for her, and will also lay national groundwork for a run in 08.
Hillary loses to Bush. Hooray! But from her perspective, it's not a problem. SHE DID HER BEST. SHE TRIED HARD FOR US. SHE GOT IN TOO LATE. KERRY MESSED IT UP, LEFT HER WITH AN INSURMOUNTABLE HILL TO CLIMB. IT WASN'T HER FAULT. WITH MORE TIME, SHE'D HAVE WON."
"And because of this, she's the automatic candidate for 2008. No opposition, no primaries, just four years to run the campaign. She can't lose. It's a win/win for her."
We will have someone who will step up and defeat her in 2008. In the meantime we defeat whomever, this November.
The Democrats began to play this card in the 2000 election, and then an angry electorate forced them to shut it down. That was good for everybody.
Each state has different laws regarding the behavior of presidential electors, and federal law is silent on it. There is room for much mischief in this process.
I'm not so sure. sKerry blames his Secret Service when he falls on the ski slopes. If "caught" in the Rathergate scandal, he'll just blame a subordinate or better yet some of the Clinton people newly on board and continue on in his usual arrogant fashion.
Kerry is too badly damaged, and so is Edwards. They are also both pretty young.
Witness Gore. He lost his home state. I may be electible again, but to what?
For Hillary to replace, Kerry would have to die. He won't step aside. Kerry and Edwards would both have to die, because no doubt he'd be the putative replacement if just Kerry were dead. He campaigned for it, and as long as he were alive, the court would never allow Hillary to step in.
Both guys dead. That's what it would take. Neither has the ego to allow themselves to quit.
If they both died under the right circumstances, the wave of sympathy would then help to carry Hillary over the threshhold. It sure helped LBJ win after Kennedy died.
Anyway, that's the only way your scenario works, in my opinion.
Yes. And all the deadlines have been met. Assume, for talking puposes, Kerry/Edwards in on the ballot in every state.
Now assume that Kerry is not available in November. What happens?
you're talking garbage.
Can you cite one instance - just one instance where a candidate for POTUS had resigned? It ain't gonna happen.
Hillary will be there in 2008 THEN you can go after her. right now she's happy to see Kerry fall on his french-looking face.
And Kerry won't be tarred with memogate. if that would happen he'ed be feeling the heat a lot more than he is right now. Memogate is gonna get Rather, and only Rather - if that.
And Even if they find that somebody inside the Kerry campaign did the memos it ain't gonna touch Kerry because the press doesn't wat it to touch Kerry.
It's OVER... Kerry will NEVER be allowed to be POTUS. The dream is dead. Kerry will probably NEVER be elected to public office again after this.
Like you said, for Hillary, jumping in now is a win/win proposition. I believe that is why the clintonites joined the Kerry campaign.
It worked in New Jersey -- i.e., the Democrats were quite happy to vote for a bait-and-switch candidate, in order to keep their party on top. Do you really doubt that they wouldn't do the same nationally, especially when they're in a "anyone but Bush" frenzy?
What do you believe would stop them?
And if you're going to say "the law" or "the Supreme Court", please quote the law or constitutional provision you feel would bar such a scenario.
Assume for talking purposes that Kerry/Edwards is on the ticket. Now assume that one or the other is not available in November.
What happens if the DEM party gets the majority of votes in a given state?
I don't think Hillary has the 2008 nomination locked up at all. The democratic party will continue to move left. You will have serious challenges from Dean and maybe even some surprises from the likes of Brock Obama.
There will be some very formidable repubicans running then too.
nick
I have to agree that I don't see this happening this late in the game --- isn't there some sort deadline for applying to get on the ballot? Also, it would gaurantee 100% Republican turnout with a lot of very mad Dems (unless Kerry dies?)!
I earnestly believe the Reps could tie this sort of shady manuever up in the courts for months (again without a untimelt Kerry demise)?
Middle of the road voters would see this for the pathetic sham that it would be --- and the backlash against the Dems would be devastating, (making the CBS forgeries uproar look like they used the wrong fork at dinner)?
I just don't see it working this late in the game?
An extremely interesting and well-reasoned set of speculations. Well done. But as an earlier poster points out, it is a ticket that is running and not just JFK. I think many Americans will have issues with the injustice of someone taking JFK's place, and John-Boy Edwards not having the chance to do it instead.
What happens is the DNC picks a new ticket. Letters are sent to Democratic electors in 50 states and DC telling them that the ticket has changed.
If the ballot in a particular state is not yet locked in, the DNC informs the state that the ticket has changed, and thus the ballot changes. If the ballot is locked in, then the ballot remains the same, but the Democratic electors who are elected under the Kerry/Edwards label vote for the new ticket picked by the DNC. This is all perfectly legal.
The change in the Democratic ticket can happen any time before December 18, the date when presidential electors meet in their respective state capitals and vote.
"Don't you have to register in the various states as a presidential candidate? I mean isn't there a cut off date for that?
Yes. And all the deadlines have been met. Assume, for talking puposes, Kerry/Edwards in on the ballot in every state.
Now assume that Kerry is not available in November. What happens?"
Yes, you tell me. What happens?
nick
Actually, a plurality is all that is needed.
34 years? No way. Ten-fifteen years tops and that counts her double term.
08/24/04 – A HOLLYWOOD fundraiser who organised events featuring such celebrities as former US president Bill Clinton was today jailed for more than five years for fraud. Aaron Tonken, 38, was sentenced to 63 months behind bars after admitting fraudulently diverting hundreds of thousands of dollars destined for charity galas and using the cash to pay off his own credit card bills. <…snip…>During his time as a top fundraiser, Tonken helped arrange events for Mr Clinton and his wife, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in August 2000. Tonken struck a secret plea deal with prosecutors that resulted in today's sentencing by US District Judge Dale Fischer in Los Angeles.Now…keep in mind the secret plea deal and read these stories:
04/19/04 - The Federal Election Commission has opened a formal probe into a star-studded Aug. 12, 2000 Hollywood fundraiser for then-first lady Hillary Clinton's Senate campaign, Fox News Channel reported on Sunday. And some say the development is at least partly responsible for Sen. Clinton's claim that she's not interested in joining John Kerry's presidential ticket.The allegations themselves are not new: Two of the event's organizers, Hollywood producer Peter Paul and charity fundraiser Aaron Tonken, have detailed a series of transactions undertaken in conjunction with Hillary's campaign that could violate FEC regulations, with Paul charging that the campaign failed to report nearly $2 million he spent producing the event.
But months before Paul was returned to the U.S. to stand trial in the stock case, Hollywood fundraiser Aaron Tonken began cooperating with federal probers. Tonken has said that he's a star witness against the Clintons in a federal grand jury probe in New York into Mr. Clinton's Marc Rich pardon - and has been cooperating with the U.S. attorney in Los Angeles who's probing his fundraising activities.
FEC Heat Hurts Hillary's VP Chances
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton surely hopes that history isn't repeating itself with the raid conducted by the FBI last month on another warehouse; this one chock full of documents from her 2000 Senatorial campaign."The documents were seized in a May 30 raid of a California storage facility containing documents of Peter Paul, the entrepreneur who funded Hillary Clinton's Senate campaign with over $2 million dollars in direct, in-kind contributions which were never reported by Hillary Clinton or her Senate campaign, as required by law," revealed the public interest law firm Judicial Watch in a press release late last week.
FBI Raids Hillary's Warehouse in Whitewater Deja Vu
The Bush administration has quietly done an about-face on allegations that New York Sen. Hillary Clinton broke campaign finance laws in 2000 - with the Justice Department preparing to extradite one-time Clinton fund-raiser Peter Paul to the U.S. as part of a plea deal for his testimony. The sudden action on Paul's case comes just weeks after reports surfaced that former Hollywood fund-raiser Aaron Tonken has supplied damaging testimony about Hillary Clinton's fund-raising practices.
"I'm a star witness against President and Mrs. Clinton," Tonken claimed in a recent report on his case in Vanity Fair magazine, explaining that prosecutors wanted his testimony about" "fundraising activities that I've done on behalf of the Clintons." The exact nature of Tonken's allegations against Sen. Clinton remains secret, the magazine said. But the celebrity moneyman is known to have been involved in the August 2000 fund raiser that is at the heart of Peter Paul's allegations.
Peter F. Paul, the flamboyant Hollywood entrepreneur who says Hillary Rodham Clinton has hidden almost $2 million of in-kind contributions he made to her campaign in 2000, is back from Brazil and promising to raise a ruckus about the New York senator as he fights bizarre securities and bank-fraud charges on which he's been indicted. Aaron Tonken, a political operative in Hollywood and a former protégé of Paul under indictment for a variety of alleged sharp deals with the rich and famous, also is promising to tell everything he knows about behind-the-scenes shenanigans of Clinton and many others.
Clintons' Fall Guy May Turn the Tables (Peter Paul)
Mr. Paul has substantial, documentary evidence detailing his close relationship with the Clintons and his funding of the Hollywood tribute, including cancelled checks, hand-written thank you notes from the Clintons, and photographs. Also named in the complaint is Clinton fundraiser David Rosen, Clinton friend James Levin, and Hollywood celebrity fundraiser Aaron Tonken, who currently is under criminal investigation for his role in other Hollywood fundraisers. As a result of Mr. Paul’s disclosures, federal authorities have launched an investigation into the Clintons and other matters. Mr. Paul, who is facing alleged (and related) stock and bank fraud charges, remains eager to cooperate with federal authorities.
Thank you for playing Ms. Clinton, we have some lovely parting gifts for you...these exquisite matching stainless steel bracelets and an all-expense paid trip to beautiful Danbury, Connecticut. Now...who will be our next contestant? COME ON DOWN!
[Note: For those that don't get it...Danbury is the Federal Penitentiary mentioned in all of the Martha Stewart articles]
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