Skip to comments.Beyond the Bush bounce: Dick Morris shows what polls are missing, suggests traitors in Kerry's camp
Posted on 09/10/2004 3:31:13 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
Friday, September 10, 2004
By Dick Morris
© 2004 WorldNetDaily.com
President Bush enters September with a remarkable double-digit lead as a result of one of the most successful conventions in recent years. The key to the GOP success was, of course, its focus on terrorism, reminding Americans what a dangerous world we inhabit. The Republicans also moved to the center, featuring pro-choice and socially moderate orators like Rudy Giuliani, Sen. Zell Miller and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The Democrats don't understand the need to move to the center. Bob Shrum, Kerry's and Ted Kennedy's key strategist, makes his living by appealing to the party's base. The addition of James Carville and Paul Begala to the team just reinforces the tendency to tack to the left, embracing an economic populism that resonates with 40 percent of the voters but leaves the rest cold.
After all, when Clinton needed to win 43 percent of the vote to get elected in 1992 against Bush, as Ross Perot split the Republican vote, he relied on Carville and Begala. But when he needed to win half the voters in the 1996 campaign, as Perot's appeal diminished, they were nowhere to be seen.
Carville and Begala will likely focus on "the economy, stupid," which is a needed correction for Kerry whose current strategy of trying to beat Bush on terrorism brings to mind Winston Churchill's characterization of fighting a land war in Asia against Japan in World War II: "Going into the water to fight the shark."
But in its focus on the economy, the Kerry team is likely to lose sight of one basic problem: In running against a bad economy, it is helpful if the economy is bad. With an unemployment rate approaching 5 percent, they'll have a hard time making the case.
The decision to bring in Carville and Begala also begs a more fundamental question: Do they want Kerry to win?
Both men are primarily loyal to the Clintons Bill and Hillary. Clearly, the former president would like the former first lady to be president in 2008. And a Kerry victory would stand in the way.
An axiom of politics is that generally you want your campaign advisers to hope that you win and Carville and Begala may not pass that standard.
Bush's post convention bounce is likely to linger until the debates. He will get another boost this weekend as we mark the anniversary of the 9-11 attacks, reminding Americans, once more, how important it is to keep Bush at the helm.
How big is Bush's lead? Don't believe the surveys that show it in the 5- to 7-point range. Believe the surveys of Time and Newsweek, which show a lead in excess of 10 points.
The difference is because pollsters disagree about whether or not to weight their results to keep constant the ratio of Republicans, Democrats and Independents in their sample. Some polling firms treat party affiliation as a demographic constant and, when they find that their sample has too many Republicans, they weight down each Republican interview and assign an extra weight to each Democratic response.
But other polling firms and I disagree. We feel that political party is not a demographic, like gender or race or age. If the survey finds more Republicans than usual, we think it's because the country has become more Republican, so we treat the result as a indicator of national mood, not of statistical error.
Time and Newsweek both picked up major moves toward the GOP in the wake of the convention. Likely the other firms did too, but they treated the finding as a mistake and weighed down the Republican interviews, making the race appear to be closer than it really is.
The debates are likely to help Bush, since Kerry's supporters are so divided on the war and on terrorism. Almost whatever Kerry says is likely to lose him a share of his voters. For example, 37 percent of his supporters told the Rasmussen Poll that they want America to give priority to making democracy work in Iraq, while 54 percent want Kerry to emphasize troop withdrawal. So when Kerry said Monday that he'd prioritize bringing the troops home, his comments appealed to the majority of his voters but alienated more than a third of them. The debates are fraught with such traps.
So look for September to be a good Bush month. But, in October, Kerry will close at least part of the gap. Democrats always do.
LOL. Gee, Dick, ya think? Heck, even a lot of the DEMS I know are voting Pubbie this year.
Well this Clinton bunch better not push too hard too fast or they won't have a candidate by November.
Now just how dumb and stupid is JFKerry that "vietnam warlord"? Has he no clue about what is in the best interest of the Clintons and their gang.
One has to wonder the state of mind of JFKerry allowing the likes of Serpent Head and the Forehead anywhere near his campaign.
A traitor surrounds himself with traitors. Well, that's no surprise.
I admit I don't trust the Clintons and their slimey dirty-dealing thugs. Which makes me question EVERYTHING they do. I have been saying for months that I wouldn't be surprised to see Clinton's DNC dump Kerry and bring Hillary in on her white horse to "save the party, country and children" and replace Kerry with her at the last minute. My hubby says "they can't do that, the delegates voted for Kerry". To which I say - when have laws ever stopped Clinton and their thugs.
They can't. The Democrat Party is the lunatic fringe.
The most they can do is try to appear to be moderate, but in fact they are the communist/socialist/Marxist Left-wing lunatic fringe, and the only way they can escape the appearance of this is through deception.
They have strong allies in this. The Democrat Newsmedia (formerly known as the "Mainstream Press") is an enormous and powerful propaganda machine at their service. It has discarded most pretexts of objectivity.
However, the American people have shown an impressive ability to see through the propaganda and resist the endless, relentless barrage that intensifies and becomes more audacious each day.
The fate of the world depends upon the steadfastness of the American people in the face of the most ruthless and powerful barrage of propaganda in history.
Morris himself does not pass the standard he establishes.
I would submit this is the first of many "excuse stories" to be able to say "Bush did not win, Kerry lost because he had traitors." (or fill in the excuse de jour)
"I admit I don't trust the Clintons and their slimey dirty-dealing thugs. Which makes me question EVERYTHING they do. I have been saying for months that I wouldn't be surprised to see Clinton's DNC dump Kerry and bring Hillary in on her white horse to "save the party, country and children" and replace Kerry with her at the last minute. My hubby says "they can't do that, the delegates voted for Kerry". To which I say - when have laws ever stopped Clinton and their thugs."
I suspect there is a whole lot more about JFKerry we do not know yet. Little has been discussed about what he got out of his and McCain's deal to normalize relations with Vietnam. Which is why I now refer to JFKerry as the "vietnam warlord". This event took place in the 90's.
This sordid attempt to use 60 Minutes and "forged" documents might cause unknown pressure for JFKerry to release his military and medical records.
BY the way where is McCain????
I thought they were going to do this before the Rat convention, had Dean still been around, but he self-destructed well-before then.
Can they do it now? Seems to me that political parties are private institutions, subject mainly to their own bylaws, and that there might be enough legal wiggle room to do just about anything they please.
There's nothing in the Constitution governing the behavior of parties, or how they bring candidates to the election. I'd surmise there's little in state election law either that the parties couldn't make a case for overriding if they were determined enough.
Exactly! Remember how they jury-rigged the replacement of Sen. Toracelli - or however his name is spelled - in New Jersey. That was such a unlawful farce and if the DNC didn't have the MSM in their back pocket, there would have calls for hangings.
Birds of a feather flock together Dad always said.
Clearly evident in Hanoi John's camp.
On one hand.. it's too late and there's no way she could win (even they 'might' realize that). But on the other hand, that might help her standing as the frontrunner in 08.
Thanks, that's the perfect example. How a party brings a candidate to the table is a party matter, not a matter of federal election law.
Sure, there are all sorts of state regs, but the Torecelli matter makes it clear that those laws can be mangled and twisted by the ultimate interests of the party itself.
And the DNC is dominated by Clintonians.
And now Billy is bed ridden, he is automatically allowed even more leeway due to sympathy for his condition.
The Clintonista wing of the Democratic Party is preparing the way for Saint Hildebeest. If they determine it would be best for her to step in this fall, it shall be done. Kerry is an old war horse (like Dole in 1996) and can be dealt with accordingly. The donkey-headed and increasingly irrelevant Edwards is also a pawn. He could be dealt with in a heartbeat for the greater good.
Dick Morris has less political savy than 95% of the posters on this site
He is a con artist supreme
The major stumbling block may well be various state deadlines for finalizing ballots, which is necessary to allow time to get absentee ballots printed and mailed. Not every state election board is as corrupt as New Jersey's, but I am sure there a lot that are really close.
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