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I may be a party pooper, but one poll does not an election make, even if it is conducted by a liberal magazine and would appear to be against its own ideological interest. Kerry has been hit with a string of setbacks, the GOP managed their convention well, and the mass street protests in New York were a Godsend to the Republicans.

However, there are some sobering realities the Bush-Cheney campaign must face. The race remains winnable, but here are the facts.

* The Democrats still have the MSM on their side. Their clout is considerably weaker than in the past, but it is hardly gone, especially among those over 50.
* The big Democrat moneybags may still prop up a faltering Kerry campaign to prevent a tsunami that could sweep liberal Congressional stalwarts like Tom Daschle and Patsy Murray out of office.
* There is a solid 35-40% of the voting public that would almost always vote for a Democrat. Blacks, Hispanics (except Cubans), and Jews (except Orthodox) do not appear to be shifting their Democratic preference much.
* There are a number of states, with at least 150 electoral votes, that it would take divine intervention to see a GOP victory: CA, HI, WA, IL, NY, NJ, MD, DC, CT, RI, MA, VT.
* Big city political machines, often run by corrupt black politicians, are still capable of stuffing ballot boxes. Remember that the Democrats were corrupt (think Boss Tweed, Prendergast, Richard Daley the elder) long before they were liberal in the modern sense.
* Demographics must be reckoned with. Over 20 years of virtually unchecked immigration (legal or not) have boosted the numbers of Democrat voters. More than any other factor, immigration from Mexico has been the reason for California's leftward lurch since the days of Ronald Reagan, William Knowland, and S.I. Hayakawa.
* Generational shift must be recognized. In 1972 and 1984, the G.I. Generation was mostly alive. That is not the case in 2004. Even when those folks were economic liberals (and many were - they were responsible for the Great Society welfare state legislation), they were usually social conservatives.
* Ideological shift is a problem as well. This is most notable in the white professional classes, especially outside the South and lower Midwest. Clinton and Gore carried most of the collar counties around New York, Chicago, etc., that were solid supporters of Eisenhower, Nixon, and even Reagan.

We need to work hard to win this one. The Swift Boat veterans and the sleazy looking protesters will largely be forgotten in 60 days. This election will still be won in the "purple" states, like it or not.