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Rasmussen National Tracking Poll 9-2-04: Bush 49% Kerry 45%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 9-2-04 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 09/02/2004 1:52:31 PM PDT by ConservativeStLouisGuy

The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%.

This is the first time that Bush has reached the 49% mark in the Tracking Poll since Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday (March 2). It's also the first time Bush has been up by four points since April 26.

Kerry reached 49% a few times following his convention but neither candidate has yet reached the 50% mark.

Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release favorable/unfavorable ratings for Bush, Kerry, McCain, Schwarzenegger, and Giuliani.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern and results are reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Last night, we began our fall schedule of interviewing 1,000 Likely Voters each night (up from 500 earlier in the year).

Three-quarters of the interviews for today's report were completed after Monday's Convention speeches by John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Half were completed after the Tuesday speeches by Arnold Schwarzenegger and Laura Bush.

Our pre-Convention Electoral College projection shows Bush with 213 Electoral Votes to 207 for Kerry. The magic number needed for victory is 270 Electoral Votes.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 9204; bushbounce; bushkerry; kewl; poll; polls; rasmussen
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Things continue to look up! :-)
1 posted on 09/02/2004 1:52:31 PM PDT by ConservativeStLouisGuy
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To: ConservativeStLouisGuy

The individual state polls are worrisome. Kerry is doing pretty damn good in the battleground states-- we have to change that.


2 posted on 09/02/2004 1:54:11 PM PDT by faithincowboys
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To: ConservativeStLouisGuy

Over 50% tomorrow after the Acceptance Speech.


3 posted on 09/02/2004 1:54:42 PM PDT by RobFromGa
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To: ConservativeStLouisGuy

I am hoping this turns into a 10 point lead after tonight


4 posted on 09/02/2004 1:55:08 PM PDT by Always Right
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To: ConservativeStLouisGuy
Bounce!


5 posted on 09/02/2004 1:56:05 PM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Even if the government took all your earnings, you wouldn't be, in its eyes, a slave.)
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To: ConservativeStLouisGuy
9-2-04 Job Approval Numbers

State Polling Data (Electoral College 2004 Projected/2000 Final Results) -- Red/Blue States

Bush-Kerry Favorables

LOTS of GOOD numbers to check out!
6 posted on 09/02/2004 1:56:51 PM PDT by ConservativeStLouisGuy (11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
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To: faithincowboys

Remove the special Rasmussen Sauce before you evaluate the state polls.


7 posted on 09/02/2004 1:56:52 PM PDT by brewcrew
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To: faithincowboys

What's Ohio and/or Missouri doing?

Those are the bellwethers.


8 posted on 09/02/2004 1:56:59 PM PDT by Guillermo (It's the 99% of Mohammedans that make the other 1% look bad.)
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To: faithincowboys

Which states? I have recently seen Bush ahead in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa.


9 posted on 09/02/2004 1:57:26 PM PDT by KJacob (God's purpose is never the same as man's purpose.)
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To: Always Right

Probably so....the way I look at it, Bush ALREADY has a bigger jump than Lurch -- and there's STILL one more evening of the RNC to go!


10 posted on 09/02/2004 1:58:10 PM PDT by ConservativeStLouisGuy (11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
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To: RobFromGa

The best numbers should begin to appear 2 and 3 days after tonight. I think Rasmussen's numbers are a reflections of 3 consecutive days of polling.


11 posted on 09/02/2004 1:58:19 PM PDT by Heff ("Liberty is not America's gift to the world, it's the Almighty's gift to humanity" GW Bush 4/12/04)
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To: faithincowboys

Oh ye of little faith....all good things come to those who wait :-)


12 posted on 09/02/2004 1:58:45 PM PDT by ConservativeStLouisGuy (11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
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To: Guillermo

The thing that scares me in Colorado. A tie in CO? HOLY ship!!!


13 posted on 09/02/2004 1:59:41 PM PDT by faithincowboys
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To: faithincowboys
What polls are you looking at?
14 posted on 09/02/2004 1:59:52 PM PDT by Dog
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To: RobFromGa
If it does go over 50% watch the Kerry campaign to go into heightened crisis mode -- and look for the REALLY NEGATIVE campaign ads to come...
15 posted on 09/02/2004 2:00:07 PM PDT by ConservativeStLouisGuy (11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
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To: faithincowboys
Wait about two weeks and then look at the battleground states. Then you will see exactly why the RATs have been so panicked the past few weeks.

F'n is in a pretty deep hole. It is not impossible for him to dig out of it, but he went from being a slight favorite to a decided underdog in just one month.

16 posted on 09/02/2004 2:00:07 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: ConservativeStLouisGuy

I have lots of faith, but I am wondering why this wretched dude is doing so well in the BG states!!!


17 posted on 09/02/2004 2:00:56 PM PDT by faithincowboys
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To: comebacknewt

Cool. Do you think the dirty Ben Barnes "bombshell" will hurt W?


18 posted on 09/02/2004 2:02:12 PM PDT by faithincowboys
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To: faithincowboys

My guess is that the big states have the concentration of their population in the large cities -- where the unions and politicians get a stranglehold on voters, turn them into Dem zombies and dictate how they'll vote.


19 posted on 09/02/2004 2:02:57 PM PDT by ConservativeStLouisGuy (11th FReeper Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Unnecessarily Excerpt)
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To: ConservativeStLouisGuy

20 posted on 09/02/2004 2:03:25 PM PDT by happydogdesign
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