Skip to comments.Daily Rasmussen Poll 8/29; Bush 48- Kerry- 45. Bush has biggest lead since June
Posted on 08/29/2004 9:04:22 AM PDT by Nascardude
Sunday August 29, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
This is the first time since the Democratic National Convention that Bush has been up by more than a single point in the Tracking Poll. It is the first time since June 12 that he has been up by three points.
Yesterday, for the first time all year, our projection showed Bush with an advantage in the Electoral College. We will be issuing another Electoral College update today at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.
Our current projection shows Bush with 200 Electoral Votes to 190 for Kerry. The magic number needed to reach the White House is 270 Electoral Votes. This is based upon a series of new state election polls from Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Missouri, and Ohio. Other recent state polls include Minnesota, California, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
Today's 3:00 p.m. update will be based upon new polling data from Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Other survey data released today shows that just 21% of Americans believe the United Nations is our ally in the War on Terror. Public assessment of France is even bleaker.
Other data shows that most Americans discuss the War in Iraq with family, friends, and co-workers at least once a week.
Beginning September 1, Rasmussen Reports will expand our Tracking Poll to 1,000 Likely Voters per night. At the same time, we will increase the flow of information provided both on the public site and for our Premium Members.
Premium Service during the final two months of the campaign will include daily tracking for Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. We will also provide frequent updates for many other states and key Senate races. Details on the Premium Member enhancements will be released this evening.
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Premium Members can review data showing public preference for Bush or Kerry when it comes to taxes, Social Security, Education, Iraq, and Health Care.
Also, a survey conducted Monday and Tuesday night found that 45% of voters nationally say Bush is more honest and trustworthy than Kerry. Thirty-nine percent (39%) take the opposite view.
While debate has raged about past military service of the candidates, 46% of voters say that Bush has a better vision for the future of Iraq than Kerry. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say Kerry has a better vision for Iraq (Demographics are available for Premium Members).
Now what we need to look for is a poll or two to show GWB with the 50% mark in the the head to head -
I'm hoping for a sustained 5 point bump after the convention. I guess will see in the next 10 days or so.
The 'BOUNCE' has begun!Bring it On!
And the best part about this poll is that it's on a Sunday which is usually a very weak day for Bush in Rasmussen's polling.
a bump for BUSH and http://www.swiftvets.com/
WE CANNOT COUNT OUR CHICKENS BEFORE THEY HATCH ON ELECTION DAY.
That said,,,I am doing a little sort of jig,,
... well: of just finding some fast, simple way of getting all the hurting to stop, really, I guess.
The vooooiiiiiiiiiices... listen to the vooooiiiiiicessssss, Johnnnnnn... the voices are your FRIENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNDS, John... :)
kerry heading down...when was the last time kerry was at or below 45%
It does have the uncomfortable side effect of shrinking the bounce, which will probably officially start tomorrow.
GALLUP has had Bush at 50% or 51% in their last three national polls. Whether that was directly head to head or included Nader I don't recall.
There is no doubt we have the "MO" on our side right now - The media are spinning nightly trying to kill it - and I'm sure they are cosponsoring differing news items between the Networks (ABCNBCCBSMSNBCCNN) to try and offset any bounce for GWB next week -
The new SBVT ads that start to show Kerry's comments once coming home from Vietnam are going to hurt Kerry even more then the the first released ads out of the SBVT -
Kerry's comments and actions once he came home were much more harmful and look much worse for him - (the media screwed up drawing so much attention to the SBVT ads) -
With that said - now the GWB reelection team have to drive home the economy and WOT issues - Big time - They have to show with ads that continually scroll facts about how well our economy is doing - (over and over) -
The economy will still be the key issue in NOV -
And who knows maybe we get lucky and bag Al Zawahiri, Zarqawi or UBL before Nov as well (though, I'm not sure that will happen) -
Actually, I think ras has typically had Bush higher on weekends. To me, the only reliable # from Ras is JA, which is still 52%, meaning Bush wins. If that gets above 55%, watch for states like OR, MN, and NJ to slide into Bush's column, and if it gets any higher, CA is not out of the question.
Claiming France will save the day if he becomes president will turn out to be a real millstone around his neck.
It is actually much worse than this. the sbvt have just destroyed ketchup boy. The bleeding will continue til 11/02 when W wins 45 states plus 3 in the senate and a few more in the house.
If he can't protect his own reputation, how is he going to protect america?
Right now, Bush 280EV and kerry 249EV.
Kerry has not been at 45% the whole month of August, and probably not since before Edwards was picked as his VP. The last time the numbers looked like this was right after Reagan's funeral, before Kerry selected Edwards as his VP. Kerry is definenlty at his lowest mark in 2 months
The bounce has begun!! And the convention hasn't even started!! KERRY IS TOAST!!
Heh! A bounce before the convention and another one afterwards. Liberals' stomachs are in their throats over this one.
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