Polls and Polls and Polls (Interesting polling analysis - Good news for GWB!!)

Polipundit.com ^ | 08/18/2004 | Alexander K. McClure

[crv16]

In Pennsylvania, a new Quinnipiac Poll reports that John Kerry leads President Bush 47%-42% with 4% going to Ralph Nader. Why am I not concerned? As other posters have argued, polling data in some states notoriously skews Democratic. In Pennsylvania, SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac, and the Keystone Poll reported that Ed Rendell would defeat then State Attorney General Mike Fisher by 19 to 20 percentage points. It was around 8 points on election day. Moreover the Quinnipiac Poll tests registered voters. While Kerry probably has a slim margin, it's even closer than the five points reported. My expectation is that the President will pull ahead in PA after his convention.

In Nevada, two new polls are out. One by Rasmussen showing PresidentBush leading by a point. The other by SurveyUSA which shows President Bush leading 49% to 46%. (Their last poll, if I recall, had Kerry leading.) If President Bush leads in Nevada, then he cannot be tied in Colorado. It is counterintuitive. In any event, President Bush would still be wise to make a campaign swing though Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada on the way to his convention.

In Georgia and Oklahoma, President Bush enjoys big leads. In Georgia, he is ahead by 14. In Oklahoma, he leads by 20 points. My guess is that Congressman Carson is asking himself why he ever ran for the Senate. Kerry has a lead of six points in Michigan and a lead of one point in Wisconsin. Wisconsin has actually seen an improvement for the President since the last poll. You can find these polls at Quinnipiac, Strategic Vision, and SurveyUSA.

Meanwhile Gallup has an interesting report. Since early June, President Bush has gone from a 4 point lead in the Red States to a 19 point lead. His trajectory in these states has consistently been upwards. (The Red States are those which President Bush carried by more than 5 percentage points.) In the blue states, which the President lost by more than 5 percentage points, he trails by 16 points. However that is an improvement from the 20 point gap in June and the 23 point gap in late July. (There are not too many so-called Blue States with large populations. While California, New York, Maryland, and Massachusettsare included, the list also includes Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Deleware, and Hawaii.)

In the critical battleground states, where the margin was five points or less, President Bush has went from -5 gap to a -2 gap. In early July he was trailing by ten. Should all go well, he will pull ahead in these states after his convention. The bottom line is that things are looking up for the President. His base is behind him, energized, and ready to support him. He has a solid wall of electoral support in the shape of a giant L running from the Southeast to the Northwest. Now the President must use the media coverage in the next two weeks to lay out a vision appealing to swing voters and independents. I think he can do it. In fact, I know he can do it.

[GodBlessRonaldReagan]

President Bush has went

Okayyyyyy...

[Imaverygooddriver]

 

War veterans Jere Hill, middle, from Warham, Mass., and Robert Gibson, right, from Lexington, Ky., stand with their backs turned during Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's speech at the 105th Veterans of Foreign Wars National Convention in Cincinnati on Wednesday, Aug. 18, 2004. Man in foreground is unidentified. Kerry received a polite if not overwhelmingly positive reaction from the VFW. But there was a clear divide, with scores of veterans sittings with their arms folded while others clapped. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

Copyright 2004 Associated Press. All right reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

 

[JFC]

I wish IT WAS NOVEMBER 2, at 11:30 p.m. The winner would be named... George W. Bush. I can go to sleep.... and thank God for the Victory..... The Dems will not have any gains and the hollywood crowd will be worrying about selling one of their 8 over priced homes.

[ozzie]

Too much of this analysis is based on Bush getting a big boost from his convention. This question is far from settled and in fact if both sides are dug in he may get as little boost as Kerry got from his.
I remember all the upbeat hopes during the Dole/Clinton campaign. Everyone saying that when push came to shove people wouldn't re-elect as dispicable creature as Clinton.
Well, they did, and there are plenty of uninformed democrat drones that would vote for Stalin before Bush.
I'm hopeful, but not optomistic.....yet.

[LS]

The problem is that even were Bush to win outside the margin of error in the popular vote and get 300+ EVs, the Dems are going to launch an all-out counteroffensive in the form of a) an impeachment over either Abu Graib or "lying" on WMDs; and b) they may get totally whacko/violent. The good news is that we have most of the guns.

[Josh in PA]

First place I am going after GWB is declared victorious...

DU!.. :).. Oh I can't wait :)

[Bahbah]

I thought you all might like to see this picture.

[Peach]

You absolutely made my day!!

Thanks for the ping.

[lnbchip]

The good news is that the House appears to be more Republican everyday and the GOP will probably gain a net 3 seats in the Senate. So, yet another election results in an even more neutered Democratic Party.

[Common Tator]

counteroffensive in the form of a) an impeachment over either Abu Graib or "lying" on WMDs; and b) they may get totally whacko/violent. The good news is that we have most of the guns.

Impeachment is an impossibility as long as the Republicans hold the house. With the 2000 redistricting in full force there is no way the Democrats can get the votes in the house to even have impeachment hearings.

And if the House does not impeach, then the senate can not convict.

Impeachment is a straw man.. for the ignorant to fear. There is a far greater chance that Kerry could be elected than that Bush would be impeached.

[LS]

I don't mean actual impeachment, but the Dems will use this as an issue, and they will press for it. Of course they can't get anywhere unless some stupid RINOs cave. But they won't go away quietly.

[LS]

And remember, just two weeks ago we increased our margin in the house by 1 when the guy in LA jumped.

[GarySpFc]

counteroffensive in the form of a) an impeachment over either Abu Graib or "lying" on WMDs; and b) they may get totally whacko/violent. The good news is that we have most of the guns.

I dread but expect in the not too distant future there is going to be Civil War II in the States, but this time it will be between the blue and red states. The Democrats' morals have sunk so low in their pursuit after power that I simply cannot see how this Union can survive.

[pgkdan]

This question is far from settled and in fact if both sides are dug in he may get as little boost as Kerry got from his.

The first Gallup Poll after the DNC showed that Bush was solidly favored by 90% of the respondents that said they planned to vote for him while only 77% of Kerry's support was self identified as solid. There's alot more room available for a Bush bump than there was for Kerry...and besides Bush is an infinately more attractive candidate that Kerry.

[rightazrain]

I sense that Kerry's support is not deep. Yeah, the left-wing nuts are broken glass, but beyond that, I'm suspicious.

I'm especially encouraged by the focus group of indies who switched support after seeing the Swift Boat ad.

[reformedliberal]

I agree that they will attempt the Nixon option: spending 4 years trying to impeach W. But: impeachment takes place in the House. I don't think they stand a chance of even getting it up on a committee agenda. In the Senate, we are going to pick up at minimum 2 seats and there is no way even the moderate Republicans are going to deal w/the Donks on that issue after the disgraceful lack of bipartisanship the Ds have displayed for 3 1/2 years.

The Abu Ghraib incident is being adjudicated. Last I heard, it was alleged to have gone as high as some *intelligence officers* and Karpinski was also derelict, but Sanchez called their bluff and they have backed down, AFAIK, on the hearings/assignment of blame. At least, the media is quiet on it all.

Clarke, Wilson and Berger are compromised, marginalized and neutralized. Moore always just preached to the choir. Woodward actually didn't indict W all that badly. Their bench is pretty thin.

The Clinton's are rather preoccupied w/their own legal mess, again, these days. In October, Aaron Tonken's tell-all comes out, detailing Hillary's campaign cash machinations.

From what NewsMax leaked about 10 days ago or so, the ISG report is going to say that Saddam had an active nuke program, not to mention the number of chem shells that was 37 & counting a few weeks ago. Qaddafi is said to be ready to come forward and detail the multinational Axis of Evil nuke program that had been hidden in a hollowed-out mountain in Libya, used Iranian fissionables, Iraqi scientists, Syrian and North Korean missiles.

I also agree with your b) scenario. But don't be so sure the left is unarmed. The ones I know are not.

I experienced martial law in 1967 in Milwaukee's *housing riots* (search Father Groppi, date and city for details). I have a lot of respect for the ability of the National Guard to put down civil unrest, if necessary. As for bombers and violent revolutionaries, I don't think they could muster more than a few hundred broken into cells of 4-6. That's really all the Weatherpeople ever amounted to.

All they really have as a lever is the courts, IMO. So, if we win and increase the margin in the Senate, they will concentrate, again, IMO, on blocking judicial nominations. We may have to deal with that for another 2 years, longer if we lose any Senate seats in the midterms. W will be forced to use recess appointments for critical appointments.I have also heard Donks making dire predictions that they have Senators who would switch parties. I am not sure they do, but the activist cadre is at least concerned about it.

As I think about this, time is also on our side in regard to Europe. The media cannot keep the truth of their economic failure and *malaise* from Americans forever. How wonderful does socialism look when you have to examine it in failure?

I think they are fighting for their lives and so are we and we junkies know it. So do the political leaders on both sides. This is war by other means and we simply cannot afford to lose this November.

BTW, I know you know that. I am on my last nerve w/this election and posting is therapeutic.

[samtheman]

I don't look for as big a boost from the convention as I do from the debates. I think W is going to mop the floor with JFn in the debates.

It should be smooth sailing after that.

[HitmanLV]

My feeling for over a year has been been:

Bush with 325 EVs, +/- 25.
A GOP House with 235-200 or so.
A GOP Senate with 54-45-1, or if the wind is at our backs, 55-44-1.

I can't see things any better - my prediction is realistic and a bit optimistic.

But in no situation can I see Bush winning many more EVs, or bigger spreads in the House and Senate.

[LS]

Hehehe. I understand. I was a basket case last November until Bush finally pulled it out. I continue to see very positive signs in the (bogus) polls: I think the fact that Bush has not been below 50% on Ras is a clear indicator that the Dems have shot their wad; new polls show Bush ahead in NV, tied in WI, ahead in FL (yes, there is one showing him down), fairly close in MI (5 points), tied in NM. I keep telling people that Kerry will continue to implode and that ultimately a huge proportion of the undecideds will swing our way, in addition to some "closet Democrats" who really can't trust Kerry.