Posted on 08/16/2004 6:40:18 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 95.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 94.5 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 71.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 61.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 8.4 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 80.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 5.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 14.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 50.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 95.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 7.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 9.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 95.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 38.4 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 94.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 91.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 87.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 27.9 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 12.1 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 4.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 29.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 30.4 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 96.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 56.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 58.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 41.0 | 0 | 4 |
| New Jersey | 16.0 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 30.0 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 7.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 78.0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 58.2 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 96.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 36.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 30.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 96.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 71.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 97.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 5.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 83.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 25.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 52.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 44.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 274 | 264 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 274 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 264 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 264.94 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
The bid price is 50.1 and the ask price is 52.1. These average to 51.1.
Thus, the tie goes to President Bush.
GWB needs to start gaining a small but significant lead and soon -
The GWB reelection team waited way to long to get in the game - The 527 issue has killed us -
Though even with that this race still remains a toss-up - Which means it is still GWB race to lose -
The IEM showed a shift to Kerry. Tradesports still bets on Bush. We'll have a better idea of who's really ahead after the GOP Convention in New York next month.
Bush holding steady for five weeks now. He appears to have bottomed, pending the GOP convention and, shall we say, "events" that may or may not take place. Either way, he still wins.
Yesterday's Iowa Electronic Markets had Bush up. Do you know something I dont?
I think we'll know exactly where this race is a week BEFORE the GOP convention - (the conventions now are just bells and whistles....and the public isn't watching or caring) -
August 20 -24 should tell us how this election plays out - if GWB is up (above 3pts) he should win in NOV - if GWB is down he is most likely going to lose - if it is a tie -then we will have a race right down to the finish -
Amazing how unprepared the GWB reelection team was on the 527 issue - it has killed us in the battleground States -
Already? If that's the case then I'd say the Kury surge out of his Convention was short-lived. The markets project a Bush win but its a tight one.
I probably ought to put some money on Bush. It is sort of like a gladiator betting on himself. If he wins, I make money, if he loses, it doesn't matter.
Nothing prevented Republicans from setting up their own 527 organizations. Why cede the field of independent campaign groups to the other side? I agree, the President mishandled this one and its turned a cakewalk into a nail-biter. With all his demonstrated weaknesses, Kerry shouldn't even be in contention but he is. And that has nothing to do with his strengths as a candidate as in how rabid the Democrats hate Bush enough to drive him out of office.
Nothing prevented Republicans from setting up their own 527 organizations. Why cede the field of independent campaign groups to the other side? I agree, the President mishandled this one and its turned a cakewalk into a nail-biter. With all his demonstrated weaknesses, Kerry shouldn't even be in contention but he is. And that has nothing to do with his strengths as a candidate as in how rabid the Democrats hate Bush enough to drive him out of office.
Yup, the convention and then the debates. Plus hopefully the Swiftboat noose around JfnK's neck will continue to tighten. Pray that the Kerry/Edwards campaign makes monumental mistakes in the weeks ahead. Something more devastating than the Wendy's lunch faux pas.
When I hear Florida is a toss-up that scares me. I know that there are lots of elderly who the Dims call and use scare tactics every day. I just ask God to Put His hand on this Election...... we need W to stay in office.
The convention and other things (low UE numbers, troop withdrawal in Europe, the fact Kerry is a dork) will help push Bush ahead in the weeks to come, IMHO.
Let me just Remind you if Bush loses.... WE all LOSE!
Agree with you 100% here - But Rove blew it - he had no ground game up and running on 527's - The GOP will be outspent by over $150 + million by Nov -(mainly in 11 battleground States - this is killing GWB) -
Here in MI - Kerry ads or anti-GWB ads outrun GWB supporting ads 4 to 1 - (and the GWB ads are awful half the time - never focusing on the SUCCESS of the economy...always talking about how it has been tough...but we are making it through ....terrible ad) -
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