Posted on 08/01/2004 4:28:28 PM PDT by demlosers
Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) -- They say there's no sure thing in politics. However, a party's presidential candidate is supposed to receive a bounce in the polls after the national convention. Yet, a new national poll shows Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry losing ground to President Bush.
A Gallup poll sponsored by USA Today and CNN reveals that the Democratic convention failed to give John Kerry the temporary bump in the polls he expected. The survey showed Kerry and John Edwards behind President Bush and Dick Cheney 50 to 46 percent among likely voters.
A similar poll taken just before the convention had Kerry in the lead 47 to 46 percent.
The poll did find voters' perceptions of Kerry on key leadership and election issues improving and it was within the poll's 4-point margin of error. However, it is the first Gallup poll since 1972 showing a presidential candidate losing popular support in the wake of his political convention.
"Clearly there is no convention bounce for Kerry," Gallup said in a statement accompanying the results.
Among registered voters, Kerry holds a 50 to 47 percent advantage, but polls of likely voters are normally better predictors of the outcome.
If independent candidate Ralph Nader is included in the vote tally, Bush continues to lead Kerry by four points among likely voters. Among registered voters, with Nader in the race, Bush and Kerry tie at 47 percent apiece.
A survey taken by Newsweek seemed to confirm the lack of a convention bounce.
Taken Thursday and Friday, the poll found Kerry and Edwards with a 49 to 42 percent lead over the president. That puts Kerry only four percentage points higher than he was in a pre-convention poll Newsweek conducted weeks ago and is the smallest convention bounce ever measured by a Newsweek poll.
Gallup representatives told USA Today that they plan to lengthen the survey through Sunday to determine why Kerry lost ground during the convention.
According to Gallup, "an analysis of convention bounces since 1950 shows that on average, among registered voters, the Democratic candidate received approximately a seven-point increase in support following the convention."
After Democratic conventions, the Republican candidate normally loses about five percentage points, Gallup said.
Falling numbers: proof-positive that the democRATs achieved their mission of letting the people get to know John Kerry.
"Clearly there is no convention bounce for Kerry," Gallup said in a statement accompanying the results.
Maybe because the balloons didn't come down.
Maybe it could be called a Michael Mooron bounce. (-5)
Among registered voters, with Nader in the race, Bush and Kerry tie at 47 percent apiece.Why does Nader peel more voters away from Bush than Kerry? Are people voting for Nader to punish Kerry?
Extending the poll through Sunday will only show a sharper drop. Kerry and Edwards were on almost every talk show. Ugh.
I don't even know where to start - is it that they can't answer questions about their "plans"? Is it that they always have to interrupt each other? Is it that when one is talking, the other has the "adoring spouse" look?
They miss on substance and style. Not to mention "gravitas".
Obviously this poll is biased because it undersampled Hamster-Americans.
The only thing this proves is that the polls are all over the place. Zogby has Kerry ahead as does Newseek, and now Gallup has Bush ahead. Since we don't good polling data I will rely on my intuition. No one in their right mind could vote for Kerry.
Campaign Carl seemed back to his even handed self today.....I'm very gald because he's great
I think this puppy, if not already posted should be firmly placed in breaking news... This is huge.
The Dims have their convention and people flock in droves away from scary Kerry. I love it.
There's been a trend of Bush building strength before the convention started. Apparently the convention just didn't make any difference and Bush is still building strength.
The Kerry message from the convention was an anti War message. You never know, he might start campaigning about calling the war criminal troops home because they are cutting of the heads of babies and burning villages.
The democrat convention wasn't very concerned with the war on terror, for to them, there is no war on terror. Their whole stick is to end the Iraq war and forget the whole terror thing otherwise.
They're losing.
The Kerry campaign is openly hostile to the Naderites. The Kerry camp has much harsher words for Ralph Nader than they do for Osama Bin Laden, Saddam Hussein, Kim Jung Il and the Taliban combined.
Kerry is completely taking the Naderites for granted - "Vote For Me or I'll Sue You". Turns out it's not that appealing of a message.
You know it, I know it, and now after the DNC, all know it!
It is a positive for Dubya and his reelection endeavors to say the least!
The article seems to be saying that without Nader Kerry has a 50/47 advantage with registered voters, and that with Nader, it's a 47/47 toss-up. That doesn't indicate that Nader draws more from the Bush vote.
I think what we're seeing is the Clinton-Clinton wing of the DNC slowly but surely defeating the Kennedy-Kerry wing of the DNC. I don't know whether to cheer this result or not based on what it may bring in 2008. One thing at a time, I guess.
Guess America doesn't like what it sees. Kerry will revamp his campaign.
Kerry can't even orchestrate a successful balloon drop.
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