Kerry's Convention Bounce Sets Him Up To Be One Of The Biggest Losers of All-Time

[SamAdams76]

Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).

If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.

Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.

When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.

By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!

Here are the convention bounces of other losers...

Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points

Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.

So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.

Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.

[Remember_Salamis]

"If his poll number remains too high close to the election, expect a "anonymous" leak that'll nail him, and it won't be leaked by us."

-- They don't need to. They just need the Democratic political analysts to write columns and talk on cable news about how Kerry "has no chance". That'll sink him for good. Pretty easy I guess.

[Darkwolf377]

You've forgotten the main reason why this will never happen: Americans don't care enough about Canada to want to influence its elections. :)

[puroresu]

Actually, Wallace took a ton of votes from Nixon in 1968. Wallace carried pretty much the same few states Goldwater carried in 1964 (not exactly, but close). Without Wallace, Nixon would have won 55-45. It's hard to imagine Wallace voters supporting Humphrey.

[Remember_Salamis]

"Three other sources are suggesting a LOSS for Kerry"

-- What sources?

[WOSG]

"Stepford Wife"

careful ... the Dems are calling the Republican wives 'stepford wives' because they have grace and calm about them, and are not erratic and deranged like Theresa the Ketchup heiress.

Now there was someone on FR who claimed that Theresa was certifiably crazy, claimed to know her in the early 1990s via republican circles. ... I didnt believe his story then (he told it early 2004 on FR). I do now.

[windchime]

Bump!

[jocon307]

"I think Kerry is a strongish candidate"

He certainly is, as Dave Barry puts it, he wants to Keep America Strong through the Strength of Strongness.

[Shortstop7]

Funny how so many forget that fact.

Thanks.

[Mo1]

-- What sources?

I don't know .. it was ableChair that mentioned it

[Remember_Salamis]

strangely, not all Nader-ites are lefties. Nader got 10% in Alaska, his highest total.

[WOSG]

"We sure fooled em with that "you cant hide" line, eh?"
"Ah ha ha ha. that was a good one."

[Mo1]

How many Kerry's are there??

How many candidates were in the Primary??

Kerry has a habit of morphing into other people .. and uses their words also

[Remember_Salamis]

"In this election season the undecided vote is somewhere around 10% at the most. Everyone else is pretty rock solid in their chose of candidates."

-- Eytime I hear this crap it makes me sick; It's all about turnout. Partisans show up at the polls in much higher numbers than independents. If Al Gore increased turnout among registered Democrats in Florida by 1%, he would have won.

[BobbyK]

Thanks SamAdams76; back to reality you've pointed the truth for the pretender.

[sc2_ct]

Remember, Clinton did get the 30 point bounce, but a LOT of that was due to Perot's BS. Perot had somethign like 20% and when he dropped out he made Clinton out to be the better guy from what I recall. If Perot had stayed in, the bounce would have been quite a bit less for Clinton.

[ableChair]

Three different sources are indicating a possible LOSS for Kerry; they are:
Rasmussen, The Iowa Electronic market and tradesports.
While only 1/3 of the Rasmussen data were taken after the speech, it seems highly unlikely that a Kerry gain would emerge when the partial data shows an increase for Bush by 2 points. I think the Newsweek data is highly suspect.

[concerned about politics]

If Al Gore increased turnout among registered Democrats in Florida by 1%, he would have won.

Not if the military votes had been mailed overseas on schedule. Clinton sent them out too late and they missed the deadline, remember? None of them were counted in any state. They were all thrown out.

[Rate_Determining_Step]

Think back:

 
Category     Clinton vs Bush I       Kerry vs Bush II 
 Likability     8         7            5        8 
 Magnetism      9         3            3        6
 Quality of 
  campaign      10        6            5        5?
 Incumbency 
  bonus points  0         10           0        10 
                ------   ------       ------    ----  
                27        26           13       29
 

Someone who crunches these types of numbers for a living could probably make them much more precise in terms of actual score and categorical impact.

But any way you slice it, Clinton was miles ahead of Kerry in every category you can measure. Plus, there was Perot. Plus, there was no war. Plus, he was facing a weaker incumbent. Plus, there was Dan Quayle (remember the full page ad to dump him?) PLUS, the dude just squeaked in on a plurality.

I remember Clinton's campaign and it was phenomenal, from the Bus Tours to the book. It ranked right up there with Gingrich's Contract with America Congressional Revolution as a political masterstroke.

Ketchup Boy is going down hard - very hard.

[Remember_Salamis]

Yup. I'm active duty, and I'm well aware of the fact. What's sad is that most Americans have no idea that Gore's lawyers sued to get the military's vote thrown out.

[ladyinred]

If Kerry only got 4 %, then the pollsters will either have to skew the polls in his favor more, or see to it that Bush only gets say, 2% in his. Must keep if fair and balanced doncha know!