Skip to comments.Kerry's Convention Bounce Sets Him Up To Be One Of The Biggest Losers of All-Time
Posted on 07/31/2004 8:48:48 PM PDT by SamAdams76
Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).
If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.
Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.
When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.
By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!
Here are the convention bounces of other losers...
Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points
Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.
So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.
Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.
I think bush will get a 4 point bounce from his Browns camp appearance alone. :lol:
Thanks for this excellent post, Sam.
Maybe. I'm a political scientist, and I've seen lots of these things like this come and go. There might not even be a real trend under this data. I think Kerry is a strongish candidate, and this will be tight. But I'm predicting a Bush win. It'll be much easier if the Nader Left has another tandrum this time.
Repeat after me (near some democrats): "There is no difference between the parties. Spoil your vote. Vote Naderrrrrrr."
Last poll I heard was on FOX. It gave Kerry only a 2.8 bounce. Newsweek has always had a problem with their far left wing kook factor. My guess is it was closer to the 2. It's more Kerryesk.
The problem is the missing link. There's Kerry 35 years ago, and Kerry in 2004 (psychically, anyway. Mentally is questionable). There's nothing in between. Na da. Zilch. Where was he? Did he flee to Communist Red China?
Great to hear it. However, I'm not optimistic that Bush's bounce will be that great, either. This whole thing is still too close and too soon. We have no excuse to be too confident.
Plus, the W machine is ready to define Kerry IN HIS OWN WORDS. Plus humor, as in ridicule. Bunny suits, deer hunting on your belly, safron biker shorts, Kerry is TOAST!
Check out Sam's research.
Is that photo with Kerry Edwards sign crossed out during when the Kerry bus was passing by?
Very interesting news. :-)
So what is it? A stronger America? Believe in America? Or America can do Better? These guys don't look strong to me.
Dead 'Rat bounce?
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