I've tried to summarize the status of the threat. As I am only human, if I've missed anything, please let me know.
Summary 7/27/04
1. Attack windows - Many dates have been put forth here on TM based upon Islamic / Jihadist ‘special days’, numerology and rumor. Fortunatly these dates have proven to be false (although some evaluation of the relation of 911 to 311 is useful). Therefore we may need to review and look for other indicators of impending attack such as changes in communications / chatter levels, etc. The best understanding I have is that the next round of attacks will be sequential with Italy being hit first, then England and the US. If this threatened pattern appears, then we could look more closely at the activity at the time to try to narrow the attack window further.
Italy. The world has passed AQ’s ‘truce’ period with Europe. Terrorist group Brigades of Abu Haf al-Masri has issued two threats against Italy, most recent 7/26/04. Validity of threat most recent threat is questionable because the communique issued July 15th said that this is Italy’s last warning, the next ‘communication’ will be the actual attack itself. If both threats are valid, then something has happened to necessitate the second warning, perhaps a disruption of preparations/targets. Rome has been specifically mentioned. Time window if threats are valid is very soon, however, there are no specific events that I am aware of that might narrow the time down. Next national elections are in 2006.
England - nothing new to report
U.S. - Jihadist ‘chatter’ has been on-going for many months about the impending death strike to America. The first signicant opportunity is the Democrat convention in Boston. For AQ, there would be many pros and cons to such a strike
Pros - Heavy news coverage
Concentration of political power in small area
Potential to influence national election
Cons - Heavy security, higher risk of detection
May cause support for the President and not Kerry (who is viewed to be more sympothetic/softer).
AQ has shown savvy towards timing an attack to influence the electorate as shown in the Madrid bombings. However I think they misjudged American response to 911 and are leary to strike at a sympathetic party. Homeland security seems to think it will be ‘soon’. Definitely expect an attempt prior to the national elections in November.
Australia - New threat issued today with no specific time frame discernable.
2. Attack method.
A. The threat is for something big, devastating to hit US. This has been a common theme, with significant discourse on whether AQ has small nukes or the capability to deploy them. Given that many of the sources that inferred that the attack should have occured by now are the same ones predicting nuclear attack provides a degree of questionability to the nuke option.
B. Discussion in TM and from national news sources indicate continued AQ interest in aircraft hijacking. Thoughts range from using far more people to putting together a ‘weapon’ of some sort in a toilet. This weapon could be an explosive device or a chemical of some sort. Another aspect is having more terrorists on the plane to help keep the passengers subdued if they can take over the craft. One piece of the puzzle missing is how the terrorists would get past the reinforced doors to the cockpit.
C. A more disturbing development are reports of considerable numbers of arabs crossing the US - Mexican border. One terrorist ‘base’ is the Tucson area. More people could result in more car/truck suicide bomb attacks which if dozens were to occur simultaneously, would cause substantial panic. With the exception of 911, the car bomb has contined to be the weapon of choice, needing only willing marytrs and the careful accumulation of explosive material (fertilizer, etc).
4. Significant meetings canceled:
A. OPEC’s meeting in Vienna Austria has been canceled, unprecedented.
5. Security has been heightened in specific cities - Boston, NYC, Philly, Seattle, LA, DC. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns. Seaports and those many crossing over our borders in the news. Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activity looking for mines, Coast Guard turning away ships as necessary.
6. Military operations. The fleet is deployed conducting various maneuvers and exercises. The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea. The first ABM missiles are being installed in Alaska.
7. Dept of Homeland Scty. Nothing new since congressional and public briefings.
Bumping your summary!
Thank you so much for your summary. I returned home yesterday from my son's wedding and came here this morning to try and catch up. After reading a bit and seeing that some disruption had occurred, I gave up for a while.
I was very pleased to be able to read your summary and get some indication as to what was happening here and abroad. Now, if I can just keep up.... :)
Big thanks to you for your synopsis.
Bump and as always thanks!