I am not a pessimist, but I am a stone-cold realist.
My realistic assessment of everything I know about this election suggests a difficult and close race. It shouldn't be, because a joker like Kerry (and his party) shouldn't even be in the game. But he is right on Bush's heels, and I think he'll stay there.
I believe we will win, but we'll need to work for it.
I don't think the past is much of a guide to this one.
Kerry winning is not even close to a reality. I really think you're over-worried about this. Kerry's so far behind that he didn't get a bounce from his VP announcement. And despite whatever the polls say--46% for someone, 44% for someone else--it's way too early to believe that crap. Put it like this; Kerry not only didn't get the same bounce that every other major candidate gets after their VP announcement, but he actually lost ground.
Bush will win in November. 65-35 is my current prediction.