Posted on 06/28/2004 2:03:37 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 96.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 94.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 68.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 67.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 13.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 77.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 9.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 21.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 61.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 9.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 12.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 93.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 40.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 94.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 91.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 81.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 19.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 12.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 3.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 36.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 32.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 94.5 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 62.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 59.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 54.0 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 20.0 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 50.0 | 0 | 5 |
| New York | 9.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 75.0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 97.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 59.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 45.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 44.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 5.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 91.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 87.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 96.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 6.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 80.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 25.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 57.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 42.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 96.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 278 | 260 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 278 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 260 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 278.85 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
The bid price is 48.5 and the ask price is 51.0. These average to 49.75.
Thus, the tie goes to John Kerry.
Zogby showed similar results last week, I think they may even have been a tad heavier toward Bush.
Bush seems to have established a trend.
Looks about right, with a few exceptions:
I think the chances of W winning Arizona and Nevada are a little tighter that that, and his chances of carrying Michigan and Minnesota are much better than that. I also see Pennsylvania as being more of an even tossup.
"Several polls have shown it to be a tie or Bush slightly ahead in Oregon, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and yet all three are shown slight to somewhat strong Kerry."
Just had a poll come out here in the state of Wisconsin. Bush is ahead by at least 4%.
This is exactly the same list of Bush/Gore states from 2000. With redistricting changes, Bush would add 7 electoral votes if he won the same states, as he is doing here. Not bad, could be better.
Why do ties go to Kerry? Is there an assumption that if the incumbent isn't clearly in the lead, he's likely to lose a close vote?
Quotes current as of 16:00:05 CST, Monday, June 28, 2004.
| Symbol | Bid | Ask | Last | Low | High | Average |
| DEM04 | 0.453 | 0.466 | 0.452 | 0.452 | 0.461 | 0.460 |
| REP04 | 0.540 | 0.545 | 0.540 | 0.540 | 0.548 | 0.545 |
Whenever Bush is ahead by 4%, the media reports it as a "toss up." When Kerry is ahead by 1%, it's reported as a Kerry lead.
I've pretty much got my moderate to liberal mom ready to vote for GWB (Kerry is THAT bad.) She has a residence in AZ and NJ. Looks like I should advise her to register and vote in AZ.
| North Dakota | 97 | 3 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 97 | 7 | 0 |
| Alabama | 96 | 9 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96 | 5 | 0 |
| Texas | 96 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 96 | 5 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 96 | 3 | 0 |
| Idaho | 95 | 4 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95 | 3 | 0 |
| Mississippi | 94.5 | 6 | 0 |
| Alaska | 94 | 3 | 0 |
| Kansas | 94 | 6 | 0 |
| Georgia | 93 | 15 | 0 |
| Indiana | 93 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 93 | 3 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 91 | 8 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 87 | 11 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| Virginia | 80 | 13 | 0 |
| Colorado | 77 | 9 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 75 | 15 | 0 |
| Arizona | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 67 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 62 | 11 | 0 |
| Florida | 61 | 27 | 0 |
| Nevada | 59 | 5 | 0 |
| Ohio | 59 | 20 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 54 | 4 | 0 |
| New Mexico | 50 | 0 | 5 |
| Oregon | 45 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 44 | 0 | 21 |
| Wisconsin | 42 | 0 | 10 |
| Iowa | 40 | 0 | 7 |
| Michigan | 36 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 32 | 0 | 10 |
| Washington | 25 | 0 | 11 |
| Delaware | 21 | 0 | 3 |
| New Jersey | 20 | 0 | 15 |
| Maine | 19 | 0 | 4 |
| California | 13 | 0 | 55 |
| Illinois | 12 | 0 | 21 |
| Maryland | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| Connecticut | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| Hawaii | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| New York | 9 | 0 | 31 |
| Vermont | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Rhode Island | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Massachusetts | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| DC | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
Bush has a greater than 50% probablity of winning in 31 states, Kerry only 19 plus DC.
Just like the 2000 election. Gore having a 1% lead in a state with 12% of the vote in was a projected Gore win, Bush having a 3% lead in a state with 95% in was "too close to call".
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