Posted on 06/22/2004 5:50:54 AM PDT by SB00
Liberals take six-point lead over Conservatives
The election: Tories lose ground, Harper considers a new tack, and a coveted group of voters speak up
By DREW FAGAN From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
The Liberal Party has vaulted back into the lead in the federal election, apparently helped along by the Conservatives' campaign troubles, according to a new poll conducted over the weekend. The Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, finds that support for the Liberals has rebounded to 34 per cent of decided voters, while Stephen Harper 's Conservatives have dropped to 28 per cent, a level of support similar to what they enjoyed at the start of the campaign.
The survey of 1,000 randomly selected adults was carried out Friday, Saturday and Sunday, as the Conservatives were buffeted by controversies on health care, child pornography and bilingualism.
"This is a horse race that is going down to the wire," Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker said. "There's been a big move."
The Liberals have risen five percentage points from their position in a similar poll published in The Globe last Saturday, while the Conservatives have declined by four points. NDP support stands steady at 16 per cent.
The change in Liberal and Conservative fortunes appears to be due largely to volatile voters in Ontario, which has 106 of the 308 seats in the next Parliament.
The Liberals are once again well out in front in the province, rebounding to the 42-per-cent support that they had on the eve of the election. The Conservatives have dropped by eight points, equal to the Liberal gain, and now stand at 30 per cent, two points more than they had when the election was called on May 23. The NDP is at 20 per cent in Ontario.
In fact, the latest poll largely mimics the state of play nationwide at the beginning of the campaign. The Bloc Québécois maintains a big lead in Quebec over the Liberals, by a margin now of 30 points. The Conservatives lead the Liberals narrowly on the Prairies and in British Columbia, and are strongly ahead in Alberta.
In Atlantic Canada, however, this latest poll shows the Liberals may have stumbled, as they appear to be now tied with the Conservatives.
The electorate, Mr. Bricker noted, is "fairly settled" except for Ontario. "There's no way to know if this is a blip there or something much more."
Paul Martin has spent most of his time since the debates last Monday and Tuesday evenings in battleground Ontario ridings that were solidly Liberal in the past three elections.
The Liberal Leader was in Northern Ontario yesterday, where he again focused on reshaping health care and attacked Mr. Harper as being unwilling to stand up to provinces that might put at risk the public-payer system.
But Conservative strategists insist that Mr. Harper, who took a break from the campaign trail yesterday, will stick to his game plan in the race's final six days.
"There is no running around like the sky is falling," an official said.
While Mr. Martin will continue to emphasize his health-care theme, Mr. Harper likely will focus on telling voters that the Liberals just don't deserve a fourth term, and that handing them one would be like giving them a blank cheque. "That's what we started the campaign with," another official said, "and there will be more of that."
Late last week, the Liberals began running ads bluntly linking Mr. Harper with former prime minister Brian Mulroney and former Ontario premier Mike Harris. Meanwhile, Mr. Martin accused Mr. Harper and Alberta Premier Ralph Klein of being in cahoots on provincial health-care changes to be aired after the June 28 election.
This, and the uncovering of Conservative policy on Air Canada bilingualism, raised new questions about a so-called hidden agenda. Finally, Mr. Harper incurred the Liberals' wrath by refusing to apologize for a personalized attack on Mr. Martin's record in fighting child pornography.
The Liberal surge is particularly apparent in two hard-fought Ontario regions that together have roughly 40 seats: the middle-class suburbs around Toronto and Southwestern Ontario.
The poll finds that the loss of Conservative support has occurred particularly among male voters, who have moved largely to the Liberals but also to the NDP. The NDP, meanwhile, has lost some of its female support, particularly to the Liberals.
The Green Party stands at 6 per cent nationally.
A seat projection based on the poll results puts the Liberals and Conservatives essentially neck and neck at about 110 seats each, with the Bloc dominating Quebec and the NDP winning about 20 seats.
The poll has a 95-per-cent statistical chance of accuracy on any given question within a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points upward or downward.
Come on Canada - you know what to do on Monday. Do the right thing.
Its a blip. Ontario - most of it will swing to the Conservatives. The Bloc will take Quebec. The Conservatives will win everywhere else in the country. That puts them in first place but yet nowhere near enough to a majority. We'll see if the Conservatives make a breakthrough in the next six days.
Hopefully you're right and Canadians aren't just lemmings that would buy into the Left's lies and scare mongering.
Note that this article IS from the Globe and Mail.
The polls that were taken were weekend polls. They vastly overstate Liberal strength in Ontario. The party's not doing well outside the city centres - they'll certainly keep their downtown seats in the main cities - Windsor, London, Toronto, Kingston, and Ottawa. Rural Ontario and the suburbs around the cities should be colored a sea of Blue on Election Night. The Liberals will be lucky to retain half of the seats in the Province. At the moment, they control 99 of the 103 seats, expanded by population changes to 106 for the next House Of Commons.
I think I agree with you. I went to Ipsos-Reid web site and copied the numbers they got for their poll, and the point swings they had were incredible. I mean things don't change that fast in politics unless something major happens. Here is the numbers they got from their poll:
"In this most recent national poll, conducted from Friday night June 18th to Sunday night June 20th, 2004, the Liberal Party has risen slightly to take the lead with 34% of decided voter support (up 5 points). Conversely, the Conservative Party has dropped 4 points and now hold 28% of the national decided vote. This change in the national vote race can be largely credited to the changing federal landscape in the pivotal province of Ontario, where the Liberals (42%, up 8 points) have surged back into the lead over the Conservatives (30%, down 8 points) by a substantial 12 point margin.
Nationally, the New Democratic Party (16%, unchanged) and the Green Party (6%, down 1 point) continue to hold steady in this poll.
Quebec continues to be dominated by the Bloc Quebecois (53%, up 5 points), who now hold a towering 30 point lead over the Liberal Party (23%, up 1 point). The Bloc, nationally, is pegged at 13% of decided vote support (up 1 point).
In the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attracts 53% of decided votes (up 5 points), and lead the Liberals (23%, down 1 point) by 30 points. The Bloc, nationally, is pegged at 13% of decided vote support (up 1 point).
Among all Canadians, 16% are undecided or would not vote if an election were held tomorrow (up 5 points).
In British Columbia, the Conservatives (36%, up 2 points) are essentially tied with the Liberals (32%, unchanged), while the NDP continues to slide (18%, down 3 points). The Green Party has 8% of the decided votes in this province (up 1 point).
In Alberta, the Conservatives (45%, down 14 points) lead over the Liberals (25%, up 8 points) has now shrunk to 20 points. NDP decided vote support has risen 6 points to 17%. The Green Party trails further behind with 11% of decided vote support (up 4 points).
In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Conservatives (37%, up 1 point) and the Liberals (33%, up 5 points) are tightly knotted, while the NDP (17%, down 12 points) have fallen sharply. The Green Party attracts 7% of the decided vote (up 3 points).
In Atlantic Canada the Conservatives (41%, up 19 points) and the Liberals (37%, down 6 points) are essentially tied. The NDP (15%, down 6 points) trails distantly, while the Green Party barely registers (2%, down 8 points)."
not to mention their gay agenda as well
If the Liberals win again Federally I don't think I can stomach staying here any more, time to move south, but I'll wait till November to make sure its not from the frying pan into the fire :)
Excerpted from National Post, June 22, 2004
They lie about Western Canada. There is NO WAY the Liberals are going to pick up any real number of seats there. Trust me, it'll be a Conservative sweep in that region.
"I listened to about an hour of political talk show from Canada last week. With the election coming people had a lot on their mind - about health care."
I find this Canuck obsession with health care indicative of a truly sick society.
It seems I never see these people talk about anything else, except when they're criticizing America. And they usually use the "health care" card as a model of their moral superiority. In addition to their utter passivity on national defense issues.
Forget Canuckistan!
'It seems I never see these people talk about anything else, except when they're criticizing America. And they usually use the "health care" card as a model of their moral superiority. In addition to their utter passivity on national defense issues.'
Then I guess you don't read the posts on FR from Canadian Conservatives ... or read articles from the National Post ... or visit FreeDominion.com ...
D'OH! That should read "FreeDominion.ca".
As a Canadian expatriate who has followed Canadian politics closely, I agree with Cobbsmith. The Liberals will win -- perhaps even a majority. Canadians will shrink from the prospect of a real conservative government.
Anti-Americanism is a Canadian state religion. They have this gnawing fear of being swallowed up by the colossus to their south.
They're shut out in Quebec, they're behind everywhere in Canada, and they are trailing in most of Ontario. A Liberal comeback could lead them to a minority government - possibly in coalition with the NDP. The funny thing is the Liberals have been criticizing the NDP for make noises about supporting the Conservatives. If the Liberals win a minority government Monday, the Bloc will support them long enough to destroy them at the next election. Gilles Duceppe's aim is to win enough seats in Quebec to force a new election at a time when the provincial Parti Quebecois can ride back into power and take Quebec out of Canada. So a win might not be all that advantageous to the Liberals. And the Canadian Left's vote will be divided among three parties.
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