POLLS POLARIZED POLLING
Remarkably, with the election 6 months away, poll after poll shows that the amount of undecided voters is low- anywhere from 2% to 8%. This shows how polarized the country is. So which poll do we turn to? The common wisdom is that we turn to Zogby because he got it right in 1996 and in 2000.
The problem is that Zogby got lucky in 2000 because he predicted (actually guessed) that more democrats would show up to the polls that republicans. Thanks to a last minute voter push by the Gore Camp in states that ironically he was predicted to take anyway, Gore took the popular vote. Florida turned out closer because the panhandle vote was light after the networks “predicted” Gore was going to win the state before the polls closed.
Luckily for Zogby, these two unpredicted factors propelled him to pollster god. Dick Morris and others love to tout how Zogby got it right in 2000, and we should only trust him. Since Zogby has the current presidential race at a tie, Morris states this is a problem for Bush. But what about the 2002 election?
Not to be outdone, Rove and the RNC revamped the grass root get out the vote for 2002. This was disastrous for (the democrats and) Zogby who was showing on November 4th, 2002, tight senate races. Dick Morris even cited Zogby in his column, (again as the only reliable source because, after all, he got the 2000 election right) stating, “… that the democrats had turned the tide”. This time Zogby’s prediction (actually, it’s a guess) that more Democrats would turn out to vote than Republicans was wrong. He blew it; Morris got it wrong in 2002.
So obviously Dick Morris dethroned Zogby as the pollster god and would not rely on his polling data that favors more democratic voters than republicans for the current presidential race? (That’s a rhetorical question, no need to answer.)
The lesson learned is that with the country narrowly divided with a few undecided, it is going to come down to who can get out the vote. The party can increase turnout to the slightest degree can spell victory. What pollsters should be telling us is who is more motivated to vote this November.
I re-crunched the numbers using the poll's internal percentages, but with a more accurate representation of Republicans, Democrats, and independents.
I got 49.3% for Bush, 45.3% for Kerry.
the Times' results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans -- a huge and unheard-of margin
Nonsense. That's a 13% difference.
The April 2nd Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll had 53% Democrats and 39% Republicans - a 14% difference. And gave Kerry the edge by 12 points.
It's not unheard of - it's run-of-the-mill among leftist media outlets determined to deliver the election to Kerry.
I have never, ever been polled for anything, so now I know why.
next they'll only poll other journalists and kerry will be at 89%.
The LA Slimes lied? 'Magine that...
What did you expect from the LA Times, honesty and objectivity! They have no clue what those words mean! You want to know the real deal. All you needed to do was to tune in last week to the Ronald Reagan memorial ceremonies, and witness the hundreds of thousands of loyal Americans waiting for mega hours to say goodbye and honor Ronald Reagan. That's the real America. Once again, here are the November, 2004 numbers as they will finalize on election day: GW Bush=57%, John Kerry=40%, Ralph Nader=3%. Pubbies will hold the house, picking up half a dozen seats or so, Pubbies will hold the senate with a gain of three. Bank on it! However, for this to happen, you, and I mean you, have to go out and vote for GW Bush! Get with the program!
The best part of this poll is even though the sample is phony, they gave Bush a 51% approval rating!
If the majority of the respondants are Dems and Ho Chi Minh could only muster that margin, does that not reveal much to the real pollsters? Yes? No?
STM, if LA Times is working this hard early in the game to foul the water, there is big trouble. Is the swiftboat sinking?
If their sample had more 'Pubs, they would have simply discarded it.
Without being deferential to the Los Angeles Times, wouldn't the country's voter registration be about 38 percent Democrat (or even more)? I know that it is 66 percent in Louisiana, which is expected to be a Bush state unless Kerry chooses the Louisiana icon John Breaux for v.p.
THAT LA TIMES POLL
Last week, the LA Times ran a poll showing a widening Kerry lead (46-42), which it headlined "Voters Shift in Favor of Kerry" The Drudge Report is trumpeting its discovery that the LA Times sample included 38% Democrats and 25% Republicans. It was clear that something was strange because the data showed Bush leading among Republicans (92-4) by a greater margin than Kerry led among Democrats (86-7). Bush also led among Independents (43-41).
Often, when trying to determine who are likely voters, pollsters will adjust their data based on a model of predicted turnout by party. If the turnout is likely to be 38% Democrat and 25% Republican, then the LA Times has it right. But that turnout model is unlikely.
According to a 2003 survey, the Pew Research Center for People and the Press reported that 31% of Americans identify themselves as Republicans and 30% as Democrats. Had the LA Times sample been 31% Republicans and 30% Democrats, then the LA Times would have reported that "Voters Shift in Favor of Bush", with the following results:
Bush 47% | Kerry 43% | Nader 5%
In 1996, Zogby had success with a turnout model of 34.5% Democrat and 34% Republican. Applying those numbers gives this result:
Bush 47% | Kerry 44% | Nader 4%
From 1997-2000, the Pew Research Center reports party identification of 33% Democrat and 27% Republican. Weighting the results based on those values:
Bush 44% | Kerry 45% | Nader 5%
I don't know what a good turnout model is, but I suspect that the LA Times is way off. I can't seem to find more recent data on party identification or even on voter turnout by party in 2000. If you can find it, please add a comment.
**UPDATE**: According to 2000 exit polling, turnout for that election was 39% Democrat and 35% Republican. Applying those numbers to the LA TIMES data gives the following results:
Bush 46% | Kerry 45% | Nader 4%