Posted on 06/14/2004 2:18:17 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 94.1 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 92.6 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 68.1 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 69.1 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 14.4 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 80.9 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 8.1 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 18.1 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.9 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 59.9 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 91.1 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 9.8 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 96.9 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 11.1 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 94.9 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 44.9 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 92.1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 87.1 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 84.9 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 19.9 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 11.1 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 5.9 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 36.9 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 33.9 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 94.9 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 63.9 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 92.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 95.1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 63.1 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 52.0 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 20.1 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 54.3 | 5 | 0 |
| New York | 9.9 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 83.9 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 94.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 61.2 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 98.9 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 45.1 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 47.7 | 0 | 21 |
| Rhode Island | 4.1 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 91.9 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 93.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 86.9 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 98.8 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 94.6 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 5.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 82.1 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 24.9 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 63.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 41.4 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 98.9 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 283 | 255 |
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 283 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 255 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 285.00 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
Isure hope that you are right. Too many Republicans that I know are very disgruntled with Bush...they are not yet willing to vote for Nader/Kerry, but they might just. I do not want to make the lesser-of-two-evils speech this time around...
Please President Bush, act like a conservative....!!!!
Vermont is a small state with a lot of college kids who register there, and if Kerry crashes Nader could make a strong showing and push the state to Bush. The chance of that happening is slim, but I think it's more along the lines of 10%, in which case 5% is a good buy.
From your keyboard to God's ears!
William Buckley said he would always vote for the most conservative running and I'm with him. To not vote is to vote for Kerry and is cutting off your nose to spite your face. That kind of thinking will punish my children and their future and I for one do not think much of conservatives who might do that. Bush is the man our party has chosen, period. You are either with him or with Kerry period.
Cheers.
Any person who calls themselves a Republican and is even considering voting for Kerry...well, they would qualify them as a RINO too!
Cut taxes--check
Military response to terrorism, check and double check.
Conservatives nominated to Courts, check.
Kerry is campaigning against these ideas don't you know?
Why would someone who thinks Bush isn't conservative enough vote for Kerry, or even more oddly Nader?
Lessor of two evils? On Bizarro world maybe.
Do you think that looking at individual state's for Electoral Votes is a more sensitive or accurate predictor than the overall market?
"William Buckley said he would always vote for the most conservative running and I'm with him. To not vote is to vote for Kerry and is cutting off your nose to spite your face. That kind of thinking will punish my children and their future and I for one do not think much of conservatives who might do that. Bush is the man our party has chosen, period. You are either with him or with Kerry period."
I agree. I have been put off by Bush's domestic spending (pandering to the demoncrats will get us nowhere.) However, there is no way I would not vote and do my part to keep him in the WH. Even besides the foreign issues, there are plenty of domestic things, such as court appointments, in which Bush is mainly conservative and which are of great importance. Anyone who knows a conservative or Republican who is thinking of not voting or voting for a minor party candidate, let them know that disagreement with Bush on some things is not worth letting Kerry win on all things.
A new one for tonight's Monte Carlo. (Just posting so this will show up in My Comments later.)
As a former Buchanan voter I'm firmly behind Bush. Granted there are plenty of issues I disagree with the president on, but the most important is the one I agree with. Our president has an uncompromising vision of terrorism. He clearly has no intent to appease, contain, or deal with terrorists.
Florida is to 2000 as
Penn. will be to 2004!!!
If Bush could win Penn and nothing else changed...those totals would be a lot more to my liking.
Ok, that and having Dashle get thrown out.
Do you think that looking at individual state's for Electoral Votes is a more sensitive or accurate predictor than the overall market?
The Overall Odds for the Election (60%) correlates almost exactly with the odds for the individual states:
In order for Kerry to win, he needs 15 more EVs... looking at the individual odds for the states, we find the shortest odds where Bush is winning at 52% for NH (4 EVs), 54.3% for NM (5 EVs), then Florida at 59.9% (27 EVs)
That's a good question, Plutarch.
While the projection for the individual state's for Electoral Votes reaches a similar conclusion to the overall market, I believe the projection for the individual state's for Electoral Votes is more detailed, and therefore more accurate.
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