Posted on 06/09/2004 6:59:01 AM PDT by wjersey
This is the last thing that John Kerry needed - a full week of Ronald Reagan hagiography, a 24/7 media festival featuring various Reagan alumni telling Americans how Reagan conservatism made the nation great again.
And, potentially, that's a great subliminal advertisement for President Bush, who has long portrayed himself as the heir to Reagan's legacy. Bush can buttress his credentials merely by delivering the eulogy Friday; all Kerry can do is sit in the crowd and cede the spotlight.
Maybe Democrats can find a way to suggest that Bush is no Ronald Reagan, that Bush isn't fit to fill the man's shoes - indeed, that Democratic strategy is slowly beginning to emerge - but, for now at least, the coverage is All Gipper, All the Time.
Kerry has been blindsided by a rare event. As presidential historian Allan Lichtman said yesterday: "It is extraordinary to have one of the great figures in American history die in the midst of a heated, closely contested presidential campaign. That has not happened in modern times, and it has significant implications for the campaign itself."
In fact, Reagan's long goodbye is virtually unprecedented. Former President Herbert Hoover died in 1964, two weeks before the Lyndon B. Johnson-Barry Goldwater election, but LBJ liberalism was at its apogee and Hoover was seen as the discredited steward of the Great Depression. Woodrow Wilson died early in the 1924 campaign, but his internationalist legacy was out of fashion and the isolationist Republicans won easily with Calvin Coolidge.
The Reagan shadow, by contrast, is big enough to put Kerry in the dark, at least in the short run - and give Bush a welcome break from all the embarrassing events that have bedeviled his presidency over the last two months. It would be no surprise if Bush gets some kind of "nostalgia bounce" in the polls released next week.
Maybe the Democrats are needlessly frustrated; Kerry would have been overshadowed by Bush this week, anyway - with Bush bestriding the world stage, first at the D-Day ceremonies, then at the G-8 summit.
Still, as one national Democrat lamented privately yesterday, Reagan trumps everything: "You turn on the network news this morning, and suddenly it's not 'More deaths in Iraq' or 'The latest on the prison-abuse scandal' anymore. TV does emotion well, and the death of a popular president is emotional. That's the story line. We can't compete with that."
There's nothing they can do, except stew. They can't publicly remind people of the downside of the Reagan years - the Iran-contra scandal, ballooning budget deficits, his refusal to acknowledge the AIDS epidemic until 1987 - because independent voters might view that as inappropriate. And they can't simply ignore Reagan's passing and forge ahead with Kerry's new economic message (the original plan for this week), because - bad taste aside - no one would pay attention.
So they put the message on ice, and shelved two multimillion-dollar Kerry fund-raisers - telling the 7,000 expected attendees and performing celebrities, in a barrage of e-mail messages, that maybe they'll find a way to reschedule after the official mourning period has passed.
It's likely, however, that the Republicans will find ways to extend the mourning - by spotlighting Reagan, late this summer, at the national convention in New York. As Lichtman said, "Homages to the 'Reagan conservative heritage' could easily benefit Bush" by suggesting to TV viewers that Bush, despite his controversial record, has a touch of the Reagan aura.
Republicans know they must be careful. As several said privately yesterday, they don't want to turn Reagan's death into a partisan crusade and risk voter backlash. Democrats learned that lesson in Minnesota, when Sen. Paul Wellstone died during his 2002 reelection campaign; a memorial event turned into a raucous rally, and some Minnesotans registered their distaste by helping to elect the Republican candidate.
But Reagan nostalgia is still likely to be a main bill of fare at the GOP convention because such outpourings would be a bonding experience for the restive conservatives in the party base.
As Democratic strategist Donna Brazile noted during a Philadelphia visit yesterday, some GOP activists have been questioning Bush's conservative credentials (grousing, for example, about his expensive new Medicare benefit). But a Reagan homage, she said, "will make them all remember why they are Republicans."
Nevertheless, some Democrats insist Kerry can still benefit from Reagan nostalgia in the long run. They argue that Bush simply doesn't measure up to Reagan, that Reagan's big shadow makes Bush look small and that, as a result, Kerry will draw swing voters who want a more substantive person to fill the office.
In the words of Democratic strategist Jenny Backus: "Reagan's death and funeral are a celebration of the institution of the presidency. It's a reminder of how important the presidency is - and the importance of having a strong president with a global vision" who can work with other nations.
In the last few days, for example, various Democratic think tanks have been cranking out "talking points" for the party - contending, for example, that Reagan (unlike Bush) worked closely with European allies and that Reagan (unlike Bush) confessed error, declaring, after a truck bomb killed 241 Marines in Lebanon, that "if there is to be blame... it properly rests here in this office and with this president. I accept responsibility for the bad as well as the good."
These Democrats are praising Reagan's political flexibility (he raised taxes sometimes, and signed a liberal abortion law as governor), thereby implying that Bush is too rigid to wear the Gipper's crown. And they are praising Reagan's civility at Bush's expense; the Democratic Leadership Council says Reagan "never sought to demonize his political opponents, and never questioned their patriotism or sincerity."
Lichtman, the presidential historian, is not impressed. The bottom line, he said, "is that Bush has had two hellacious months, and he's still roughly even with Kerry. And now Republicans get to celebrate Reagan at their convention and link him with Bush. All the Democrats can do is carp about it and say, 'Yes, but.' Which position would you rather be in?"
Kerry looks smaller ... did he shrink?
Reagans shadow overwhelms a dim Kerry.
I wonder what Mr Reagan was supposed to do about AIDS? Spending on research was higher than even funding for cancer research. Was he supposed to shut down the bath houses etc? Yeah, that would have went over big.
They can now blame their forthcoming loss in the presidential election on Reagan, thus absolving themselves.
So be it. Let's go ahead and win one for the Gipper!
Still, as one national Democrat lamented privately yesterday, Reagan trumps everything: "You turn on the network news this morning, and suddenly it's not 'More deaths in Iraq' or 'The latest on the prison-abuse scandal' anymore. TV does emotion well, and the death of a popular president is emotional. That's the story line. We can't compete with that."
No comment.
Bingo..that's it exactly..
Is there any way to read this other than a desire to see more deaths in Iraq, and more coverage of the prison abuse scandal? I wish there would be a link to these comments by the unnamed national Democrat,'cause I'd like to stick that comment down a few throats.
Absolutely!
Poor J.F'n Kerry is gonna have a tough time this summer.
It's bad enough that NOBODY wants him -his only 'supporters' are only trying to get rid of President Bush.
And now, with President Reagans' passing, the country is getting an excellent reminder of what a REAL man and a REAL leader is. Fresh into the election.
What a bummer, John. Better go home and see what Gomez and Morticia want....
"Bush - who has long portrayed himself as the heir to Reagan's legacy."
W himself did this? I thought others tried to say so, but not W himself.
"Maybe Democrats can find a way to suggest that Bush is no Ronald Reagan, that Bush isn't fit to fill the man's shoes"
Well, they'd be correct. Bush *is* no Reagan, no matter how pretty darn good he is. But that mite only make Dems look silly, since Bush would look more left if compared to Reagan. Not right. It's pretty funny if Dems start harrumphing about how great Reagan was compared to Bush - Reagan is the very antithesis of liberal belief!
As it is, regardless of motivation, I still think it was pretty decent of Kerry to "shut up" for the time being. It shows some class and respectability.
So let's just say Kerry's no Clinton, either!
Nonsense. I don't think Bush measures up to Reagan, but he doesn't need to to benefit from Reagan's memory. Or win the election. My gripes about Bush wouldn't make me choose Kerry in a millionty-jillion years, and they won't make me stay home.
Has anybody else wondered if this is going to help tarnish Clinton's book release? Maybe too far apart, but I'm guessing thoughts of Reagan are going to drift through the public consciousness for quite some time, and the comparison with Clinton won't be flattering to the latter.
I fell very positive about it.
Damn the torpedoes polls....full speed ahead!
By next month, Reagan will disappear from the media, and by November this will have little impact. Thoughtful people already understand the difference between Bush and Kerry, but a lot of voters are merely swayed by the latest trend. Much depends on whether the press will succeed in its campaign of villifying Bush with a new propaganda attack every week from now until next November. Will they succeed, or will they destroy their own credibility?
There's little or no chance that the liberals will repent and change their ways. If the liberals lose the election, they will learn nothing from it. They will simply get even angrier and their lies will get even louder.
According to the Dems, Kerry's strongpoint.
I wonder how the counrtries he calls the 'fraudulent coalition' feel about this?
Same thing jumped out at me. (Post #7)
It won't even be close..but some do like to worry....
"Kerry looks smaller ... did he shrink?"
maybe his botox is having side effects
Here we have it folks. President Reagan's passing has interrupted the Dims 24/7 Bush Bash. And they can't stand it.
Here's how the Dims think:
Good for America - Good for Bush - BAD
Bad for America - Bad for Bush - GOOD
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