Posted on 05/31/2004 8:34:04 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 281.12 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
That's one ugly curve...
In spite of that butt-ugly picture you got on your homepage, I trust your thread is accurate.....and I appreciate it....mucho!!!
The graph depicts a scary trend.
That curve is bottoming and should start a reversal sometime in September. Nobody said it would be easy but I'm not buying John Zogby's prediction of a Kerry landslide, either.
So it is felt that MN will go Kerry without a fight?
Well, perhaps all is lost after all the Dem's DO have Senator M. Dayton in their ranks and Dubya only has Senator Coleman and Governor T. Pawlenty.
After two mad months, several books, a 9/11 commission,", a prison scandal, a commission to investiage the prison scandal, and the liberal media's drumbeat, Bush has finally bottomed out and will continue to rise.
I'd like to see some up-swing on that curve. The great speech he gave today should help.
Many, as I, don't buy his biased and down right ridiculous claim.
According to the political futures traders, President Bush still has a 33.0% chance of winning Minnesota.
Just wait until the likes of Katie Couric have a shot at followup.
To their demise, It will rise even higher! ; )
Does TradeSports have a track record in prior Presidential races? How did they fare?
Yup, he'll get a Memorial Day bump and it will rise or be steady until November.
And to think, to date, while commuting 30 miles through the center of the TC's every day, I still have only seen 1 Kerry bumper sticker this year.
Many (of the few)liberal associates of mine consider John Kerry an idiot.
I'm still unconvinced that the best campaign by Dubya wouldn't be to stay out of the election and let Kerry do ALL the talking.
After all, the effects of the WOT, taxes, and the economy which we have experienced under Dubya speaks loudly on it's own.
The one's that don't know this, are not keeping up on current affairs at all and most likely won't take the time to vote anyway.
Although this is NOT an invitation to stay home in November and not vote, it is a reasonable outlook to consider.
TradeSports.com is legit and has been in operation since 2002.
It will be interesting to see how they fare in a Presidential race. They certainly don't track with the polls. I hope they're right.
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