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Poll predicts minority (Canada- Fiberals in trouble)
National Post ^ | May 21, 2004 | Robert Fife

Posted on 05/21/2004 8:26:59 AM PDT by Squawk 8888

OTTAWA - Paul Martin and the Liberals are heading for the first minority government since 1980 in the coming election as a result of a late surge in Conservative support and a pervasive "mood of negativity" among voters, according to a new National Post/Global National poll.

The COMPAS survey shows Stephen Harper's Conservatives are closing the gap with the Liberals and are now at 31% of voter support compared to 39% for the Martin government.

The national survey of 1,579 Canadians, conducted May 15-19, has the NDP at 17% of voter support and the Bloc Quebecois at 11%, although the separatist party has a clear lead in Quebec.

Conrad Winn, president of COMPAS Inc., said the Tories have risen from the mid-20% range in recent polls because of an "atmosphere of frustration and desolation" among many Canadians, making it unlikely the Liberals will win a fourth consecutive majority.

Mr. Winn noted the electorate has shown "an inclination to turn against the government over specific issues that have emerged in the news," such as the Auditor-General's critical report on the Quebec sponsorship program.

Should the Liberals be reduced to minority status in the election expected June 28, it would be the first minority Parliament since Joe Clark's Conservatives held power for nine months in 1979-80.

The new Conservative party appears to have benefited enormously in the Liberal stronghold of Ontario from the fallout from Tuesday's provincial budget, in which the Liberal government forecast a deficit and increased taxes, Mr. Winn said.

The Conservatives are now virtually neck-and-neck in Ontario at 39% to the Liberals' 42%. Only in Toronto do the Liberals hold a strong lead.

"In the electoral heartland of Ontario, the Liberals face new competition from the Conservatives that they have not experienced in many seasons," Mr. Winn said. "For sure the Conservatives will not be shut out in Ontario this time," he said, adding there is a very good chance the Tories will pick up seats in Eastern Ontario and in the suburban ring outside Toronto.

The Liberals face potential trouble in every region except Atlantic Canada, where their 50% support compares to 26% for the Tories and 20% for the NDP.

In addition to anger over the provincial budget -- where the Liberals imposed a health care "premium" on taxpayers after pledging not to raise taxes -- Mr. Winn said Ontario voters could be reacting to a series of negative Liberal advertisements that attack Mr. Harper.

He noted that Ontarians have a recent history of responding negatively toward the source of attack ads, not their target. When Ernie Eves unveiled a series of commercials targeting Dalton McGuinty last fall, Tory fortunes plummeted and the Liberals rode to a strong majority win.

"There's ample evidence these kinds of ads can backfire," Mr. Winn said.

The Liberals face potential trouble in every region except Atlantic Canada, where their 50% support compares to 26% for the Tories and 20% for the NDP.

In Quebec, the poll shows the Liberals at 40% to 43% for the separatist Bloc, but Mr. Winn said those figures overstate Liberal support, which is concentrated in heavily anglophone ridings in Montreal. Conversely, the Tories have almost no support in Quebec, which means none of their national support is "wasted" in that province.

"In practice, the Liberals are set to lose massively to the Bloc in Quebec, do poorly in Saskatchewan-Manitoba, and be shut out of Alberta," he said. "The Liberals are also threatened in British Columbia, where public misgivings about the provincial Liberals could carry over to their federal cousins."

In British Columbia, the Tories are at 40% support compared to 32% for the Liberals and 26% for the NDP. The Tories remain a powerhouse in Alberta with 57% support compared to 27% for the Liberals and 14% for the NDP.

The NDP is in a virtual dead heat with the Liberals in the Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 32% to the Liberals' 35%. The Tories are at 27% support.

Mr. Winn said a large plurality of Canadians believe they are worse off now than they were four years ago, and this mood of negativity may make the Liberals profoundly vulnerable to charges of corruption from the sponsorship scandal. "By immense (76%) majorities, Canadians believe the Liberals were corruptly helping their friends, Martin had to have known at the time, his record is not squeaky clean, and Adscam was not an honest mistake made in the course of trying to keep Quebec in Confederation," Mr. Winn said.

He noted 28% of respondents said their voting decisions will be based on local candidates and local policy considerations, up from 23% in polling completed in early May. "The increased emphasis on localism can be interpreted as meaning that the electorate is even less engaged in national decision-making and even more skeptical of the national choices presented to them," Mr. Winn said.

Compounding the troubles for the Liberals is the fact governing parties always lose support over the course of a campaign when voters pay attention to criticism and policies offered by the opposition parties, he said.

Mr. Winn said a majority of those polled believe the Liberals have a record of misspending and a large percentage think the government opened the door to terrorists and imposed taxes that are too high.

"To make matters worse for the Liberals, the public is not sure whether the election is premature," he said. Almost half of respondents (45%) said the election is being held too early.

The COMPAS poll is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


TOPICS: Canada; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: canada; polls
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Even better- the survey was nearly finished when the Ontario budget was released. There's a helluva lot of anger here being directed towards the Liberals right now, I'm betting the budget will cost them at least five points in Ontario. Stephen Harper should remember to thank Dalton McGuinty on election night.
1 posted on 05/21/2004 8:27:00 AM PDT by Squawk 8888
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To: Squawk 8888

Sounds like there's hope for Canada. I wish to voters in this country would wake up because it looks like we are headed towards a Kerry Presidency.


2 posted on 05/21/2004 8:31:51 AM PDT by The South Texan (The Democrat Party and the leftist (ABCCBSNBCCNN NYLATIMES)media are a criminal enterprise!)
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To: Squawk 8888

Help out an American cousin, what is the NDP party? Which side are they on?


3 posted on 05/21/2004 8:33:41 AM PDT by jocon307 (The dems don't get it, the American people do.)
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To: Squawk 8888

The Liberals become the minority party in Canada? This is too much to hope for. Iraq will have an elective representative government first.

All the road signs in French everywhere in Canada, including Quebec, would have to come down before I would believe that the Liberal party has lost its iron control. Too many of the minority coalition parties keep joining up with it on their single-issue politics to ever expect a Conservative recovery.


4 posted on 05/21/2004 8:35:11 AM PDT by alloysteel (Live well and prosper. Beam me up, Scottie....)
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To: jocon307

New Democratic party,...Socialist.


5 posted on 05/21/2004 8:35:54 AM PDT by fanfan ("Great spirits often encounter violent opposition from mediocre minds." A. Einstein.)
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To: jocon307

NDP is the furthest left. Maybe the closest thing we have in the USA is the Communist Party; but the NDP is in general a little bit nuttier than that.


6 posted on 05/21/2004 8:36:58 AM PDT by ikka
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To: jocon307

The NDP is a socialist fringe party. Their chances of winning (or even making gains) are nil- they actually managed to get elected in Ontario in 1990 and the damage they did sent their share of the vote from 40% in 1990 to less than 10% in 1995. Their only consistently strong voter base is in Saskatchewan, the home province of the party's founder.


7 posted on 05/21/2004 8:37:35 AM PDT by Squawk 8888 (Earth first! We can mine the other planets later.)
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To: Squawk 8888

India will have to go the same route to purge out the Congress (Communist) party after it finishes erasing all the progress made under Vajpayee. The Indian stock market crash was just the beginning.

On the positive side, outsourcing to, and fuel consumption by, the Indians may be less of problem if their economy tanks.


8 posted on 05/21/2004 8:40:24 AM PDT by SpinyNorman (Kerry: the only man that can look like the front end of a horse while acting like the back end.)
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To: alloysteel
The Liberals become the minority party in Canada? This is too much to hope for.

I think you misunderstood the concept of "minority government" (known in the UK as "hung parliament". In our system of "responsible government" (oxymoron), the executive branch requires the support of the House of Commons to remain in power. If the executive loses a vote, the entire cabinet must resign. A minority government means that the governing party holds less than half the seats in the house and can only remain in power with the support of members of other parties.

9 posted on 05/21/2004 8:42:40 AM PDT by Squawk 8888 (Earth first! We can mine the other planets later.)
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To: Squawk 8888
Is there any chance the Tories could team up with the Bloc to form a coalition government if no one gets a majority? Or is it more likely the Liberals will cohabit with the Bloc or NDP?
10 posted on 05/21/2004 8:42:57 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
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To: Squawk 8888

been reading the Toronto Pravda...Toronto Star and the feedback they have been getting over the budget and the health care premiums is almost all negative which the editorial pages have been trying to quell praising the budget.


11 posted on 05/21/2004 8:43:08 AM PDT by Pikamax
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To: Squawk 8888

The WSJ had another article on the inadequacies of the Canadian healthcare system and its two tier clients. The case in point that was used was none other than Prime Minister Martin, himself, who recently used the Montreal Medisys office for a physical exam, not covered under the federal medicare program. Of course the Prime Minister didn't have to pay out of his own pocket, as would ordinary citizens because the gov't employees are covered under a separate, but not equal medi-care system.


12 posted on 05/21/2004 8:48:54 AM PDT by Eva
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To: conservative in nyc
Is there any chance the Tories could team up with the Bloc to form a coalition government if no one gets a majority?

It is possible but depends on how the numbers play out. The Bloc was formed when Brian Mulroney's coalition of Québec nationalists, Ontario centrists and western conservatives fell apart in the late 80s. The current membership is from the entire political spectrum- they don't fall into the traditional left vs. right pigeonholes. Their leader would have to weigh it very carefully- supporting the Liberals would produce a huge backlash from Québec voters but backing the Tories would end the patronage and pork-barreling that is ingrained in that province's culture. The NDP, OTOH, would never back the Tories so if the Libs and NDP between them get more than 155 seats then Martin stays.

13 posted on 05/21/2004 9:00:46 AM PDT by Squawk 8888 (Earth first! We can mine the other planets later.)
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To: Squawk 8888

Liberal minority government ... not good enough for me. Let's get Harper in there.


14 posted on 05/21/2004 9:52:56 AM PDT by NorthOf45
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To: Squawk 8888

Speaking as someone in the mining industry, let me say that I love your tag-line!

A minority Liberal government, supported by the NDP, would be the worst possible outcome. Remember Trudeau's minority government - the NDP were able to accelerate Canada's move towards socialism by threatening to topple the Liberal slush-fund regime!

A Conservative government, even if minority, is our only hope, imo.


15 posted on 05/21/2004 10:02:33 AM PDT by headsonpikes (Spirit of '76 bttt!)
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To: Squawk 8888
I guess the question is whether NDP support is concentrated enough to pick up many seats, or if, like Nader voters here, it's just a minority across most of the nation. Canada doesn't have at large or proportional representation seats in the lower house, does it?

On the other hand, if the Tories are very weak in some parts of the country, maybe enough voters dissatisfied with the liberals will go with the NDP as a protest vote. Could they win many seats in the East, if the Tories become too identified with the West?

And would the Bloc want to risk participating in a government, or would it just sit on its hands and see what the other parties do? If the choice is between forming a coalition which would ultimately mean the end of the party or remaining aloof and exercising the balance of power, the latter looks like the best choice. Would it be right to assume that their vote will go up without a French Canadian as Liberal party leader?

16 posted on 05/21/2004 10:15:35 AM PDT by x
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To: x

We use the Westminster system (first past the post) exclusively so the NDP gets a disproportionately small number of seats. Their strongest support base is Saskatchewan and BC, with some strength in Manitoba and the Atlantic provinces. They have never won a seat in Québec and their strenght in Ontario has been negligible after their disastrous stint at governing the province from 1990 to 1995.


17 posted on 05/21/2004 10:45:11 AM PDT by Squawk 8888 (Earth first! We can mine the other planets later.)
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To: jocon307

The NDP is the far loony left party in Canada. Thankfully they have just as much chance getting elected as the Greens in America.

The political slant of the Canadian Liberal Party basically is the same as liberal Democrats, such as Kennedy.

Except for a few true conservatives, the Conservative Party of Canada's policies are pretty much on par with the RINO Republicans.

As you can see, in general, Canadian politics are definitely left-ward of America's.


18 posted on 05/25/2004 4:33:30 AM PDT by SB00
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To: Squawk 8888

Give the liberal Canadian media time, they're doing their best to drum their message home to Canadians.

Liberals Good, Conservatives Bad.
Socialism Good, Conservatism Bad.
Tax hikes Good, Tax cuts Bad.

You get the idea.


19 posted on 05/25/2004 4:35:06 AM PDT by SB00
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To: SB00

It is quite surprisingly left-wing when looked from NZ or Australian politics. In Australia the Green Party and Australian Democratic Party are equals to your New Democrats, are both considered to be the lunatic left, and neither has even achieved outright majority in government on any of the state level. In Tasmania, which they have the best performance in all of Australia, they only managed to get to influence the balance of power in parliament (can't remember whether it was that state's upper house or lower house).

Their main party on the Left, the Australian Labor Party, is surprisingly to the right of the Canadian Liberal Party. I think the dormant ALP Left equals to your Liberals but I will ask the Australian FRers to confirm this. For example, Bob Hawke or even Paul Keating are both to the right of Paul Martin on a comparative scale. And their Liberal Party and National Party coalition areseveral degrees to the right of the former Canadian Progressive Conservative Party.

Given that Australia essentially consists of 3 Albertas (Western Australia, Queensland, and South Australia), one greatly diminished BC (Tasmania), one less left-wing version of Ontario (New South Wales), and one Ontario (Victoria), you can see why Australian politics are consistently to the Right of Canada.


20 posted on 05/25/2004 11:17:18 PM PDT by NZerFromHK
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