Posted on 05/19/2004 12:46:40 PM PDT by Conservomax
Nice post. I've always thought the solution was simply that Earth is such a remote backwater that they only check us out every millennium or two, which they can do without leaving the kind of evidence that would survive for centuries -- next time they come back we'll know it.
The Parsy Principle: The universe is much older and much larger than we think. Our 12-20 billion year sphere of observation is only .000000000000000000001 to the nth power (or however you phrase it) of the actual size of the universe.
Like babies, we think that what we see is what there is.
Therefore, the probes started out way over yonder on the other side and haven't has time to reach us yet.
parsy, the pseudo-astrophysicistical cosmologist.
How about: they've been here. And we didn't taste good.
I think that it's entirely possible that alien species are at more-or-less the same point that we're at. Furthermore, If Einstein was correct, and light-speed travel is not possible, then we may never see any other alien races, just due to the vast distances in Outer space. For instance, the Voyager (I think) space probe just exited the solar system. That's not even a short rock throw on a cosmic scale, but it still took 30+ years to accomplish.
I like the "gray Goo" visualization. :-)
These arguments about the probability of life on other planets assume that we have a grip on the odds of life developing on earth. That it may have happened does not mean it was a certainty, or that it was likely or probable. Since we don't know (assuming a set of natural causes), exactly how life got here, there is no way to calculate, then extrapolate out to the probablilities of life arising anywhere else in the universe. Assertions that life "must be" on other planets are based not on logic but religious necessity. People that say life "must be" out there are making statements of blind faith.
The reason that I used the Smithsonian exhibit to do the calculation was (besides the fact I happenned to be there) that the exhibit provides all the numbers for you. (Such as, how many stars in a galaxy, how many galaxies in a universe, etc.) You get a very large number if you presume that life isn't so hard to come by.
General rule of thumb: Physicists tend to get enormous numbers. We biology types get much lower numbers. The amazing thing to me was that I could never have deliberately calculated how to get a number so close to 1. I mean think of all the numbers like 5x10^60 that go into such an equation!
variations in tides.
We do know that there is at least one planet with life....us.
And the stability of our axial tilt.
True, but it does something else - I can't remember - perhaps it blocks asteroids or affects the magnetic fields which protect us from radiation. Its something like that.
I think you're wrong. Are you sure you have all the variables accounted for? How about you list them, just to be sure?
Wouldn't there be radio wave evidence of such?
In addition, going on how sloppy humans are, I refuse to believe that this planet has been visited by any ETs, whether it be 1947 in Roswell, NM or ancient times. There would have to be some solid and obvious evidence left behind, such as a cigarette butt (poor example, sorry, but it is America's favorite litter, followed by the aluminum soda can). If there was evidence, or a visit, such as Roswell, NM in 1947, I also refuse to believe that the US government is efficient enough to 100% cover it up with NO piece of evidence left untouched and unavailable for the public. The only thing government does efficiently is inefficiency.
The variations of tides would be very important. If tides alone were significant, then Venus would have done better. Complex variation of the environment would force complex adaptation, which would imply complex varities of lifeforms. Alternatively, this could be viewed as an additional source of subtle energy requiring subtle responses. Venus would lack the subtle energy source.
Thanks for the ping!
Within the local galactic cluster there would be no way to travel intergalactically since no power source, including nuclear, would last the several million years needed to make the trip. We might populate the Milky Way were it not for Congress, but we wouldn't ever go beyond the Milky Way.Unless we learn how to tap into dark energy! (Assuming the density of dark energy is high enough in between galaxies.)
You presume a Type II Dyson sphere. Dyson said what he foreaw was a loose collection of over 100,000 objects traveling on independent orbits. Dyson also predicted a Type III sphere called a ringworld, which would require only the amount of matter of a large asteroid, and yet would capture a significant portion of a star's energy.
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