Bush Widens Lead Over Kerry In Spite Of Difficulties In Iraq (Bush 46%, Kerry 41%)

Investor's Business Daily/TIPP ^ | 5.11.04

[ambrose]

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Feature Story

Tuesday, May 11, 2004

Bush Widens Lead Over Kerry In Spite Of Difficulties In Iraq

BY IBD STAFF

Despite the Iraq prison scandal that has rocked the Bush administration and damaged America's credibility, the latest Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll shows that the president would win if the election were held today.

The nationwide poll of 981 adults, taken May 2-8 (after the prison scandal broke) revealed that among 823 registered voters Bush leads Kerry 46% to 41%, with independent Ralph Nader getting 5%. In a two-way race, Bush leads Kerry 47% to 44%.

In an IBD/TIPP poll taken April 16-22, Bush led by four points in a three-man race.

In swing states, Bush widened his lead from 3 points in mid-April to 9 points in early May. He now leads Kerry in the so-called battleground states 49% to 40%.

But the race is very close among independent voters. Bush gets 40% of their votes; Kerry gets 39%.

Bush's presidential leadership ratings, as measured by the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, also rose — from 49.5 in April to 51.8 in May, a gain of 4.5%.

"Despite a tough month, Bush seems to have come out ahead," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner. "Bush's ratings have improved among 15 of the 21 demographic groups we track."

Intensity of support among Bush voters is much stronger than support for Kerry, the poll continues to show. While 68% of Bush's supporters say they support him strongly, only 38% of Kerry's supporters say the same for him.

Kerry also lags Bush in tapping his party's constituencies. Bush gets 90% of Republican votes while Kerry gets 77% of Democrats. In fact, one in eight Democrats (12%) want to vote for Bush.

Only 11% of Democrats say they are "very satisfied" with the choice of candidates in this year's election and 59% are "somewhat satisfied." This contrasts with 42% of Republicans who are "very satisfied" and 37% who are "somewhat satisfied."

Among independents, 16% are "very satisfied" and 43% are "somewhat satisfied" with the available choice of candidates.

The poll has some good news for Kerry, however. Nearly three-fourths (71%) say they made up their minds about whom they'll vote for back in February or even earlier. One in five (18%) say they decided in April and March. While Bush dominates among the early deciders (58% to 37%), Kerry is gaining among more recent deciders (70% to 24%).

An IBD/TIPP index that gauges public opinion of U.S. standing in the world hit its all-time low of 44.5 this month, reflecting the "stain" the prison scandal may have made on the country's image. The index's previous low was 46.7 in March 2003, just before the Iraq military action.

Bush has indicated he is aware of the situation, admitting that the last two weeks have been tough on the Iraqi front, with the prison scandal following the bloodiest month there for U.S. troops.

Still, Bush's ratings are improving. Why? Mayur cites four reasons, while believing the net effect of all the positives vs. the negatives (especially the prison scandal) is still positive.

First, he said, the latest job data have convinced many that the economic recovery is for real. More admit that Bush's tax cuts have helped spur the recovery.

Second, Bush's campaigning and heavy advertising in the Midwest and key swing states seem to be bearing fruit. In late April, Kerry led the president 45% to 40%; now Bush leads by 15 points (51% to 36%) in the Midwest. "Each hand you shake is worth 100 votes," Mayur observed.

Third, most Americans (80%) see Bush as a resolute leader. "And as things get tougher in Iraq," Mayur said, "we expect more Americans to gravitate toward him."

Fourth, support for U.S. military action in Iraq remains stable at 57%. Also, 52% believe the action is helping make the world safer. Nearly half (47%) think the U.S. is winning the global war on terrorism while 36% believe it is losing.

Americans admit the prison scandal is not good for the country's image, Mayur said, but they are not blaming Bush directly. If they were, he said, the president's ratings would have dropped.

"Americans understand that a handful of people were responsible for the (prison) incidents and perhaps have accepted Bush's apology," Mayur said.

The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

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[ambrose]

[ambrose]

Bush's presidential leadership ratings, as measured by the IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, also rose — from 49.5 in April to 51.8 in May, a gain of 4.5%.

"Despite a tough month, Bush seems to have come out ahead," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner. "Bush's ratings have improved among 15 of the 21 demographic groups we track."

Intensity of support among Bush voters is much stronger than support for Kerry, the poll continues to show. While 68% of Bush's supporters say they support him strongly, only 38% of Kerry's supporters say the same for him.

Kerry also lags Bush in tapping his party's constituencies. Bush gets 90% of Republican votes while Kerry gets 77% of Democrats. In fact, one in eight Democrats (12%) want to vote for Bush.

Only 11% of Democrats say they are "very satisfied" with the choice of candidates in this year's election and 59% are "somewhat satisfied." This contrasts with 42% of Republicans who are "very satisfied" and 37% who are "somewhat satisfied."

[FairOpinion]

Any chance of getting this to show up under FrontPage News in the sidebar?

I think it deserves to be there.

[doingtherightthing]

Okay, I know it is only a poll, but I did find this statement interesting:

"In fact, one in eight Democrats (12%) want to vote for Bush."

Thanks for the post Ambrose

[Lib-Lickers 2]

but Zogpiss said the election is Kerry's to lose,,,,,,,,,,,,, and I wonder how many news outlets will use this poll instead of Zogby or CNN?

[Tall_Texan]

Rather than looking at snapshots, distinctive trends say much more. While the "independants" is still close, you can see Bush making slow steady progress with each new poll. That tells me the ad campaign defining Kerry and his lack of a real response means Bush is slowly making headway with the key swing voters.

But it's early and while some say the electorate has few undecideds, I think there will be one or two bombshells between now and Election Day which will significantly swing the undecideds (another terror attack, capturing bin Laden or a possible weakening of consumer confidence due to bad economic results).

[ambrose]

I think what all these slime attacks are doing is helping W. nail down his base!

We may have our reservations about Bush, but we're tired of the lies coming from the Party of Treachery and their cohorts in the media!

[onyx]

Third, most Americans (80%) see Bush as a resolute leader. "And as things get tougher in Iraq," Mayur said, "we expect more Americans to gravitate toward him."




Backfiring on media.

[FReethesheeples]

I hope this is correct.

Caveat: I saw Zogby last week in DC in a private meeting.

Zogby calls this the "Armageddon Election."

Who knows at this point, but Zogby says there is only 5-6% undecided among likely voters, lower than ever before.

He is, today, calling the election for Kerry, saying its Kerry's election "to lose." (See Drudge Report May 10th.)

[ambrose]

The hysterical coverage of this 'story' is totally unbelievable.

Remember when U.S. Soldiers were raping young Japanese girls in Okinawa? It caused quite an outcry in Japan, yet there was very little coverage by the US media. There certainly wasn't any suggestion from the media that Clintoon was responsible for the rapes, even though it could be credibly argued that the soldiers were merely trying to emulate their commander-in-chief.

[BigSkyFreeper]

[Eastbound]

Translation: The dems crapped out again. They should have never picked up the dice.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Yup. Like I said in another thread. America's resolve is stronger than the media, Kerry, or the Democrats believe. Bush and America will weather the Iraqi prison scandal firestorm just fine. The only ones who will be outraged, mad, and frustrated will be the Left.

[onyx]

Oh yes, Ambrose, I remember that story.
I remember seeing on the inside of my
newspaper, not even on the front page.
Excellent thinking again, dear friend.
You have a soothing quality about you.
Always seem to put events in their proper
perspective, for which I am grateful.

[onyx]

You're right.
American's resolve is greater than
our damn media care to acknowledge,
and apparently so is our faith in Bush.
The more they batter him, the better he does.
Methinks we're not the only ones who are wise
to the "anti-Bush" agenda of the lamestream media.

[Diver Dave]

My eyesight isn't what it used to be. Perhaps you can help me out.
Does that Oldsmobile have a personalized plate on it as in "Mary Jo"? :)

[BigSkyFreeper]

Possible. :)

I'm thinkin' it says UNKL TED :)

[faithincowboys]

Kerry

Sucks

[ubaldus]

Their "battleground states" subsample is probably quite small, and the polling error for this sample correspondingly large. That's why it's jumping all over the place - from 46-43 for Kerry in April to 49-40 for Bush now. In general, I would not pay much attention to this particular piece of data.

The overall polling numbers look very good for Bush, 47-44 in two-way race is really encouraging, especially since these are registered voters, not likely voters. Bush support is rock solid, it seems he has 43-44% percent of the vote solidly locked. Now he can work on getting the remaining 6-7%.

[Sir Valentino]

The hysterical coverage of this 'story' is totally unbelievable.

Remember when U.S. Soldiers were raping young Japanese girls in Okinawa? It caused quite an outcry in Japan, yet there was very little coverage by the US media. There certainly wasn't any suggestion from the media that Clintoon was responsible for the rapes, even though it could be credibly argued that the soldiers were merely trying to emulate their commander-in-chief.

I don't find it *UNBELIEVABLE* at all. The liberal media will do *ANYTHING* to elect al-Qerry, just as they did for the *CLINTONS*.

They had no *QUALMS* about covering up the *DOZENS* of rapes in Okinawa on Clinton's watch, but somehow we're supposed to believe a couple of incidents of minor *ABUSE* which Bush has *NO* control over is a big deal.

Yeah, *RIGHT*!