ELECTION 2004 Zogby: Kerry will win Pollster points to 4 reasons he sees Democrat victory

WorldNetDaily.com ^ | May 10, 2004 | WorldNetDaily.com

[Jacob Kell]

Pollster John Zogby has predicted John Kerry will win the presidential election in November.

In a column yesterday, the researcher laid out four reasons he sees that point to the defeat of President Bush.

"I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls," Zogby writes. "Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election."

Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign," Zogby says. "Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: Voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative."

The pollster's third reason stems from reading the numbers surrounding the top three issues on voters' minds.

Thirty percent of voters cite the economy as the No. 1 issue, while just 11 percent cite the war in Iraq. Kerry leads Bush 54 to 35 percent among those who name the economy. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Zogby points out, Kerry's lead is 57 to 36 percent.

"This, of course, is balanced by the 64 percent to 30 percent margin that the president holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism," Zogby writes.

Zogby's fourth reason: Kerry's a good closer:

"Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Gov. Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries."

Concluded Zogby: " We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose."

[MNJohnnie]

I think Freeprs need to facethe fact that based on historical past elections, Bush is going to lose

I think the economy is strogn and getting stronger, but over50% of the public doesnt

Same challenge, please provide some SOURCES for any of this doom and gloom? I do not see a SINGAL poll where more then 50% see a negative view on the current economy. All the polls at Polling Report show that view in the low 40% range

[Brimack34]

I guess all just stay home then. No point voting. The pres. should just fold up the campaign. The mighty ZOGBY has spoken.

[MNJohnnie]

don't go by these anecdotal stories. For every one you can find like that, there's somebody who voted Republican in the past but is against Bush's prescription drug benefit, stance on illegal aliens etc.


No, what you have a Democrat Party Seminar Callers who have been to the Democrat party training session that tells them to start every letter to the editor or Talk Show call with "Well I was a Bush voter in 200 but because of ..... I will be staying home" This image of this hugh block of "conservatives" pissed a Bush is nothing but a DNC propaganda line. Conservatives may have a disagreement with Bush on an issue or two but they ALSO have NOTHING that they agree with Kerry on. So called "conservatives" may bitch and whine about Bush, but they absolutely LOATH everything Kerry stands for. Kerry will generate HUGH NEGATIVE turn out in Nov.

[DestroytheDemocrats]

"IF Kerry wins it will portend a shift to the left in American politics."

Oh brother. You wish. The GOP would still have control of the House and Senate. There will be no shift to the left is the domestic enemy. And so are you leftie.

[nathanbedford]

It is frustrating to read 203 posts only to come away discouraged by threats of excommunication for lapses in dogma.

What are we afraid of? A Troll? Far more dangerous is our own resistence to facts or views which threaten our world view. If conservative values are valid, we have nothing to fear from Zogby, whatever his motivations, for our views and values need to be tested if they are to prevail.

I have published my concern for the way the campaign is going and have been bashed for it. The bashing has no more effect on me than it has on Zogby. Tell me why he is wrong but do not tell me he is wrong because he is an Arab. And do not tell me someone should be banned from posting because he views are despised. Let us all have our say.

Please do not deprive me of chance to read a point of view because you do not trust me to see it your way and properly react to that point of view.

That is what Peter Jennings does to me and it does not work when he does it either. Here on FreeRepublic we all get our chance to rebut the Peter Jennings of this world, which is more than ABC offers us. Let us not sink to their level.

[boxsmith13]

I mean because you would ahve for the first time a NE liberal winning in an economy that has grown 4% and will in all likelihood have produced over 2m new jobs by election day. That will be something profound

[boxsmith13]

So check out Gallups recent poll where 51% disapprove of Bush on the economy.

Then go check out Gallup's historical polls, you will see that no incumbent has ever won re-election with Bush's numbers

[boxsmith13]

I didnt say Kerry was going to be able to govern or be asuccessful President. My predictions of a Kerry win go only as far as Nov 2004, if you want further predictions beyond that, Id say Kerry is likely to be a complete failure as President and 2006 could be a repeat of 1994. That's when DEM's lack of enthusiasm for Kerry will really hurth.

[No Dems 2004]

John Zogby is far too self-important. He thinks he's the polling god of America. Also, he's a self-identified liberal Democrat and any attempt he makes at sounding rational are thinly veiled in his partisanship.

I remember some time ago, when he was reporting on a poll about President Bush, he said, "THIS IS AN ARROGANT ADMINISTRATION." I had never, ever read another so-called independent pollster say such a thing. The man is skewed and biased and has a terrible time saying anything positive about this President.

[Al Simmons]

Here are Zogby's 4 Reasons why "Kerry will win":

1. Alahu Akbar!

2. aLAHU aKBAR!!

3. ALAHU AKBAR!!!

4. alahu akbar!!!!

Here is the 1 reason why Zogby is wrong:

He is listening/praying to/worshipping the father of lies.

[Kingasaurus]

What Zogby doesn't know or doesn't mention is this:

The main reason Kerry won against Weld in the 1996 senate race is twofold. Massachusetts LOVES their incumbents, but polls also showed that people were very happy with the job Weld had done as governor, and wanted to keep him in the governor's office instead of sending him to the Senate. Thatw as a very important factor that was unique to that particular race alone, and has no national implications. Zogby's a twit.

[jimfree]

I don't get it. Why would a serious pollster make such a prediction 5 1/2 months in front of an election?

[TomEwall]

Link to Mike Towery article: http://www.townhall.com/columnists/matttowery/mt20040511.shtml

Discussed here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1133377/posts

[TomEwall]

320 EV's is not anything close to a landslide. The states of Florida and New Hampshire were razor close, so a small move in Kerry's direction could take those two states. Taking Ohio and keeping Pennsylvania would put him in the 320 range. He could do this with a small popular vote victory.

For Kerry to win 53% is a pie in the sky number, however. One has to go back, I don't know how far, maybe a century, maybe more, to find a Democtratic challenger to win with that % of the vote.

[TomEwall]

If you're talking about the job approval numbers, Bush is right in between. He's just above Ford, who almost won, although Ford has lower job approval numbers than Bush. (If the '76 election were held one week later, Ford very likely would have won).

I don't think an incumbant with an economy as strong as this one has ever lost.

[princess leah]

Also the chance, slim that it is, that California could be in play for Bush which it absolutely wasn't in 2000...Kerry will HAVE to spend money there and it could be interesting!

[MiniCooperChick]

Well, then both of us are just darned brilliant! ;-)

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

im not liberal, ive just looked at all the gallup polls going back to 1932, and based on history it looks bad for Bush

I wonder if he STILL thinks it looks bad for Bush, lol.

[faithincowboys]

Well, Zogby is a Pan-Arabist who wants America to lose the WOT. Of course, he'd say that.

[The KG9 Kid]

You just scared the crap out of me with this dated post.

I shall get even with you. ;)