Posted on 04/20/2004 7:24:45 PM PDT by Utah Girl
Sometimes it is important to pull back from the day-to-day numbers and take a look at the history of Presidential Elections. When you compare the parties over the past 100 years or so, it becomes clear that Republicans and Democrats typically win the Presidency in different ways.
With the currently notable exception of George W. Bush, Republicans tend to win the Presidency with a majority of the popular vote. Thirteen of the last 14 Republican Presidential victories before 2000 were won with a majority of the popular vote.
Democrats, with the notable exception of Franklin D. Roosevelt, typically win the Presidency with a minority of the popular vote. Excluding FDR, the Democrats have won 10 Presidential elections since the Republican Party was born. Of those ten Presidential victories, eight were won with less than a majority of the popular vote. Even including Roosevelt, Democrats have won with a majority just six times out of fourteen.
Other than FDR, the only Democrats to win a Presidential election with a majority of the popular vote since 1860 were Jimmy Carter and Lyndon Johnson. Carter’s victory actually showed how difficult it is for the Democrats to win a majority of the vote—he received only 50.1% of the vote immediately after Watergate dragged down Republicans everywhere.
There is another difference between the way Republicans and Democrats win the Presidency.
Republicans typically win three or more Presidential elections in a row. They won six in a row starting in 1860, four in a row starting in 1896, three in a row starting in 1920, and three in a row starting in 1980. They failed to get three in a row just twice this century. One of those times was the result of Watergate; the other was simply an exception following Eisenhower’s Presidency.
Democrats, with the exception of FDR, have not won three straight Presidential elections since 1836—before the Republican Party even existed. In fact, since Lincoln became the first GOP President, only two Democrats have ever won back-to-back elections—Woodrow Wilson and Bill Clinton. Both of those men won the office in a year when a strong third-party candidate split the Republican vote. Clinton won with 43% of the popular vote in 1992; Wilson with 42% in 1912; and both won re-election with 49% of the vote.
Overall, since Abe Lincoln’s election, Republicans have won 22 elections to the Democrats 14. Without the exception period of Roosevelt's rule, the GOP has the edge 22 to 10.
These trends have something to do with the origins of the current party structure during the Civil War. Republicans were the Union Party. Democrats were the opposition party. In many instances, all that held Democrats together was their dislike of the GOP. That is certainly the case today--Democrats are more united by their dislike of Bush than by their support of Senator Kerry.
In the case of Clinton's second election, it didn't help that the Stupid Party nominated a very weak candidate (in terms of electability): Bob Dole.
Votes for sale.
This will be useful when talking to Dems who rant that GWB did not really win because he didn't have the majority of popular votes.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.