Bush-Cheney Strategy Memo on Recent Polls

George W. Bush ^ | April 20, 2004

[RWR8189]

TO: Campaign Leadership
FROM: Matthew Dowd, BC’04 Chief Strategist
RE: Bush-Cheney Strategy Memo on Recent Polls
DATE: 4/20/04

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New Polls: President Bush Shows Tremendous Resiliency; Kerry Shows Fundamental Weakness

• Despite pundit speculation that the President had been weakened over the course of the last month, the President’s ballot position has improved, he shows tremendous strength over Kerry on handling terrorism and Iraq and he has made significant gains on handling the other important issues of the day.
   
• According to Gallup, the President holds a narrow lead over John Kerry. In yesterday's Gallup poll, the President leads John Kerry, 51% to 46%, among likely voters. Since the beginning of the general election race in early March, the President has gone from trailing Kerry by 8 points to leading him by 5—a net increase of 13 points. This turnaround is confirmed by yesterday's ABC News/Washington Post poll which shows the President going from trailing Kerry by 9 points in early March to leading him by 1 point, 49% to 48%.
   
• The President’s job approval rating remains strong. In yesterday’s Gallup poll, 52% of Americans approve of the job President Bush is doing. This rating is in the same range as President Reagan’s 54% approval rating in April 1984 and President Clinton’s 56% approval rating in April 1996. This poll is also confirmed by the National Annenberg Election Survey which shows that the President’s approval rating at 53%, and yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows the President’s approval rating at 51%.
   
• Despite the recent violence in Iraq, Americans are firm in their support for the President’s policies. In yesterday’s Gallup poll, a majority of Americans, 57%, support the US sending troops to Iraq. A similar number, 58%, believe the recent events in Iraq mean the US should intensify its military efforts, not scale them back.
    
• Americans are increasingly confident in President Bush’s leadership on the economy. In yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll, the President’s job approval on the economy increased by a net of 5 points since March and the number of Americans who say the economy is getting better increased by a net of 3 points. President Bush’s approval on the economy in yesterday’s Gallup poll increased to 46%, a net increase of 7 points since late March and exactly the same as President Clinton’s in the spring of 1996.
    
• Voters have more confidence in President Bush on the important issues of terrorism and Iraq. The President has retained his commanding 21-point lead over Kerry on terrorism in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. Interestingly, President Bush has gone from trailing Kerry by 1 point on handling Iraq in early March to leading him by 11 points today.
   
• In fact, as voters get to know John Kerry, they have less confidence in his ability to lead on the issues. Americans trust President Bush over John Kerry to handle the main challenges the nation will face by a margin of 49% to 44%, making for a net increase of 10 points since early March. On individual issues, the President now leads Kerry by 21 points on terrorism, 16 points on same-sex marriage, 11 points on Iraq, and 6 points on taxes.
  
  
  
   
• The Bush-Cheney campaign has been successful at defining the race. In focus groups recently conducted in Florida, Ohio, and Oregon by Democracy Corps, swing voters cited the President’s resolve and steady leadership and saw John Kerry as indecisive and ready to raise taxes. Participants noted that:
  
  “He [President Bush] performs well under pressure. You know, and he’s not afraid to make a tough decision”. (Florida, non-college educated man)
  
  “He proved himself in a sticky situation and you don't know is this how the next person is going to handle it if it happens again, or something”. (Ohio, non-college educated woman)
     
• “Participants could not point to any core convictions that defined Kerry.” Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg’s own analysis of the focus groups stated that voters were unable to cite Kerry’s basic principles. He also noted that “voters’ language reflected the [Bush] campaign’s assertions as many people said Kerry ‘flip flops’ on issues, is indecisive, and will raise taxes.” Individual participants also made the following comments:
  
  “Well, he [Kerry] flips back and forth it seems. Initially, he was supposedly for us going to Iraq and now he’s screaming for us to get out of there.” (Oregon, college educated woman)
  
  “I heard that in the past he has voted for a lot of tax raises.” (Florida, non-college educated woman)
  
  "You got that vote for the taxes, the gasoline hike and now he switched back here. So, okay, where is he really on the gas hike?” (Ohio non-college educated woman)
     
• Recent national polling confirms that Americans see John Kerry as unprincipled. In yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post survey, 79% of Americans believe that President Bush “takes a position and sticks with it,” while just 41% say the same of Kerry. The President also leads Kerry by 8 points on the attribute of “always truthful in explaining his policies” and by 6 points on “is honest and trustworthy.”

[ken5050]

Matthew Dowd is a superb spokesman for the Bush campaign,bot on the tube and in print.. My own "little" problem is that everytime I see "M. Dowd" in print, I automatically think of Maureen Dowd, and I ignore the piece....

[samadams2000]

Cut government..I mean CUT..EVERYTHING..Lower my taxes and beat back the liberal hordes. Is that too much to ask? Which box shows that does that anger?

[Coop]

FYI

[Pukin Dog]

All this, from the party that Freepers are ready to give up on every time the Media attacks our President. Maybe we could all learn to be more confident in our leader, and pay less attention to the pundits?

[sr4402]

How many of the polls did not include Nader? The press doesn't want to consider Nader in this equation because with Nader in the picture, Kerry doesn't look good.

[JLS]

Thanks for the bump. It is really more and more apparent each presidential election cycle that if either party nominates a Senator, they are basically giving up?

When was the last member of Congress elected President?

G.W.Bush - Nope
Clinton - Nope
G.H.W. Bush - Nope, was a Congressman but won election after being a Veep.
Reagan - Nope
Carter - Nope
Ford - Never elected president
Nixon - Nope long before was a Senator, but was Veep and a private citizen for many years before elected.
Johnson - Assumed the job as a Veep but did win re-election.
Kennedy - Yep the one the press loves. Elected president as a Senator 44 years ago.
Ike - Nope
Truman - Nope was a Senator, but similar to LBJ first Veep, then assumed the job and reelected.
FDR - Nope we are not back to 1932 with one example.

And during this time various parties have nominated various senators like Dole, Mondale, Goldwater all going down to defeat.

[kevkrom]

Thanks for the bump. It is really more and more apparent each presidential election cycle that if either party nominates a Senator, they are basically giving up? When was the last member of Congress elected President?

There were only two sitting Senators elected to the Presidency in the 20th Century.

Part of the reason, and probably a big part, is that Senators are by nature of their positions, deliberate, consensus-seeking animals. They are not leaders in any classical sense of the word.

[1Old Pro]

“Participants could not point to any core convictions that defined Kerry.”

this says it all.

[mwl1]

You are not only correct, it is especially foolish for any party to nominate a member of the minority party in either Chamber of Congress... we will use the Senate rules to destroy him this summer and fall.

[Solson]

The Bush Campaign will do well to note the huge increase due to Same-sex Marriage. It will be a HUGE issue in this election and has the ability to cross over to independents and democrats and get them to vote for Bush. It will also bring over Dem-Catholic voters.

[JLS]

Yeah, I have been mulling that over too. At the very least Kerry will get to vote to renew the Patriot Act or not this summer. He also may get to vote again on the defense of marriage.

[mwl1]

Lots more votes than that. Making the tax cuts permanent. Health care savings accounts. Judges. Defense appropriations, including weapons systems. Perhaps another supplemental for Iraq operations.

Either way he votes on these and other issues, he loses... either his base or the middle of the electorate.

If he ducks the vote, his absenteeism becomes a huge issue. People don't like it when you collect a pay check without going to work.

[GraniteStateConservative]

The President’s job approval rating remains strong. In yesterday’s Gallup poll, 52% of Americans approve of the job President Bush is doing. This rating is in the same range as President Reagan’s 54% approval rating in April 1984 and President Clinton’s 56% approval rating in April 1996. This poll is also confirmed by the National Annenberg Election Survey which shows that the President’s approval rating at 53%, and yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows the President’s approval rating at 51%.

I think everyone who had those kind of job approvals by mid-April went on to win. So, pop the cork!

[GraniteStateConservative]

No, that's silly. McCain would have beaten Gore like a rented mule. Zell Miller would have been a great candidate against Bush.

[Wolfstar]

In all of American history, only three sitting U.S. senators were elected to the presidency, and only one sitting member of the U.S. House. The senators were Benjamin Harrison, Warren G. Harding, and John F. Kennedy. The member of the House was James Garfield. (Oddly, Garfield, Harding and Kennedy all died in office.)

There seems to be something deep and instinctive in the American character that prefers to elect presidents whose immediate job prior to winning the presidency was executive rather than legislative in nature. An overwhelming 91% of all presidents, to date, were either vice president, governor of their state, U.S. secretary of state, ambassador, or military general immediately prior to becoming president, although several had served in the House and/or Senate earlier in their lives.

Even the nation's only unelected president, Gerald Ford, had served as vice president (also unelected) before ascending to the presidency when Nixon resigned.

Does this mean Kerry can't win? No, but the weight of history is against him.

[JLS]

No, that's silly. McCain would have beaten Gore like a rented mule. Zell Miller would have been a great candidate against Bush.
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You can believe that had he been nominated by the GOP, the kid glove treatment would have continued. I wonder if once he was running against a Dim rather than a relatively conservative Republican, McCain's treatment might have been changed? I do. So whether or not McCain would have won or lost is not a foregone conclussion to me.

[NYC Republican]

Zell Miller would have been a great candidate against Bush

They'd probably split the conservative vote, most Dems would go to Zell... That would have been tough

[CurlyBill]

Does this mean Kerry can't win? No, but the weight of history is against him.

Agree. I cannot imagine Kerry winning one Southern state... regardless of whether or not Edwards is his running mate.

[proudpapa]

Wasn't Moondale the VP for Jimma?