A BLOWOUT IN THE MAKING

New York Post ^ | 3/24/04 | DICK MORRIS

[kattracks]

March 24, 2004 -- THE Bush ads are working: Two weeks ago, the Washington Post poll showed Sen. John Kerry ahead of President Bush by 11 points, and the Gallup Poll had him up by 8, while more recent polls reflect a dead heat between the two. Zogby (March 21) has Kerry up by only 48-46, and Rasmussen (March 20) has it Bush 46, Kerry 45.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Don't get me wrong: I really, truly want to believe all of this, as it's all Good News For the Good Guys...

... but... I mean... c'mon. It's Dick Morris, man... :)

[goldstategop]

I agree with Dick Morris. The conventional wisdom is safe but its dead wrong. Baron John F. Munchausen's Faux Au Follies are gradually getting greater public airing and over time you will begin to see a sustained and steady erosion in Kerry's support. His campaign has yet to find a theme song and his Vietnam era commercial is just plain pathetic. No one doubts his service to the country three decades ago but the times have changed and Kerry has yet to explain in a sentence why his 60s wartime credentials make him ready to deal with the national security and foreign policy challenges of the 21st century. In a word, its not the guy's patriotism that's being questioned, its his judgment. And everything we've learned so far tells voters he's not ready to be President. Kerry became the Democrats' presidential nominee solely for one reason: they thought he could beat Bush and not that they liked him or knew anything about what he stood for. The more America learns about him, the less it will like him. As a result, the bottom line's clear: November's gonna be a Bush blow-out.

[Clemenza]

"Don't get too cocky" --- Han Solo to Young Republican Luke Skywalker

[Poundstone]

Whatever you may think about Dick Morris personally, the fact is that he's typical of a small group of people who are 100% political animals. Politics is all they live for; without politics to dominate their every waking hour, they'd probably shrivel up and die.

I'm not saying such people are good or bad; I'm simply noting they exist.

I find Morris to be the sharpest such person among this select group. I really don't think he cares about the party affiliation of the people he's worked for in the past (and he's worked for conservative Republicans as well as liberal Democrats). Morris is in it for the game.

I'm going to file this article of Morris' in my hardrive and bring it up in, say, late September. I have a feeling this article will prove to be an accurate description of how Campaign 2004 will pan out.

[KeyWest]

Fear not. The NYT and LAT will have polls up to the election showing Kerry in a landslide. That will keep our juices flowing.

Bustamante won in Cal, just like the LAT polls showed.

[qam1]

I saw this in a link on another thread.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040323/nytu110_1.html

	3/1	-17/04		3/1	-3/04
	Voters	18-29		All Voters
	Bush Voters	Kerry Voters		Bush Voters	Kerry Voters
Definitely vote for candidate	73	59		82	65
Could change mind	27	40		18	34
Not Sure	-	1		-	1

40 and 34% leaning towards Kerry could change their minds but only 27% to 18% that are leaning towards Bush!!! Bush looks pretty solid with a long way Kerry can (and hopefully will) fall.

[goldstategop]

The partisan media will lie baldly up til Election Day. Afterwards, they will run analyses and commentaries pondering on why they didn't see the defeat of Ketchup Boy coming.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Whatever you may think about Dick Morris personally

Stop right there, please. :) I said nothing whatsoever re: Morris as a person... and you're simply reading your own prejudices into what I did write, in order to kangaroo hop, long-distance, to such a conclusion. Please exercise more care in that regard, in the future.

Dick Morris wrote an article mere days ago (which should still be easy enough to locate, in the FR archives), all but writing off even the faintest, most remote possibility of a Bush victory. For him to now effect such a dizzying 360-degree spinabout -- without even passing reference to his own mirror image predictions, scant days ago -- leads me to the conclusion (a perfectly defensible one, I think) that this does not exactly fall under the heading of Serious and Considered Political Theorizing, is all.

You may agree or disagree with that evaluation, of course, based upon your own standards for evaluating such things. And that's your G-d-given right, unquestionably.

I have a feeling this article will prove to be an accurate description of how Campaign 2004 will pan out.

... and this remains my own fondest hope, as well! :)

[FlyVet]

I'd like to see a blowout, but...Gore won the popular vote. I look forward to November with morbid curiousity, to see if the publik has smartened up any since then.

[qam1]

Dick Morris wrote an article mere days ago (which should still be easy enough to locate, in the FR archives), all but writing off even the faintest, most remote possibility of a Bush victory.

I don't see it, A search of Dick Morris articles shows he has been leaning towards a Bush win

[Clemenza]

I won't feel confident until Zogby shows a ten point lead for Bush.

[goldstategop]

Don't be silly. Zogby will never run a pro-Bush poll.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

If I've (unintentionally) misremembered an earlier column of Morris', then it's my face that has egg all over it, of course.

I really don't think my memory's playing me false on this one, though. And I'll do a Google, and see if I can't scare the sucker up. Fair...? :)

[RichInOC]

Cool. Let's suck it up, work on making it happen, and hope Dick hasn't been huffing the Odor-Eaters again.

[samtheman]

This Democrat, who escaped scrutiny by posing as the un-Dean in the primary, is now being revealed as the leftist he is.

This guy is further left than Dean. Dean's leftism is the leftism of a college professor who wants to make an impression on the girls in his class in the hopes of getting lucky. Kerry is a committed commie ideologue who wants to remake America in the image of some Socialist Paradise of his imagination... and the imagination of his socialist-billionaire ketchup queen wife.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

This isn't the column I was thinking of, originally... but:

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/2/20/115549.shtml

From the article: "Citing the browning of America, Morris said the GOP was 'in danger of extinction' and must do more to attract Latino and black voters.'

“ 'Bush must run up a down escalator just to stay even' as demographic trends reshape the face of America, he said."

This does not seem, to my untutored eye, entirely consistent with his (Morris) now boldly predicting "a Bush landslide." Call me crazy, if you like... but: there you have it. :)

Again: I absolutely, 110% hope that this latest column of his is the more accurate "take" on matters -- ! :)

[avant_garde]

I won't feel confident about it until the liberal media calls it for GWB after election night.

[Naomi4]

When Kerry began to rise after Iowa, I kept telling friends there was no way this guy could win. He looks like a funeral director on a bad day.

He is dour, his face is long, and all the lines in his face go down. A smile is a foreigner on his face. He has no laugh or smile lines, just frown lines.

You compare him to GW Bush who seems to always have a smile, grin or a twinkle of one ready to pop out, except when he is genuinely troubled or concerned, and it is a no-brainer.

Kerry is utterly lacking in the Living Room Factor. The more you see him, the more painful the experience becomes.

Americans won't vote for a pessimistic President who is dark and brooding. And, Kerry is even worse than just morose. He is an elitist snob.

I thought at the beginning that GW would be hard to beat by any of the Democrat dwarves who were running against him. Kerry has only strengthened my opinion.

The only thing that can save the Democrat ticket now is Hillary on it as the VP. Kerry may be forced to take this woman and she will upstage him all the way. They will still lose but not by losing nearly every state. With Hillary on the ticket they will carry more states than Massachusetts and the District of Columbia. She will make it a credible race. She will also bring in the money the Clintons have stashed in those hard to track PAC's run by their friends.

It won't hurt her one bit and will set her up for 2008.

[avant_garde]

John Kerry knows that if he picks "The Beast", who is trying to wiggle her way into the VP slot, he may get to go on picnic in the park just like Vince Foster.