2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, March 22, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[zbigreddogz]

People keep saying that WV is gonna be tougher for Bush this time, but I don't see it. Gore lost it because of Gay issues and Gun Control. Kerry makes Gore look like a piker on these issues, and he's a new england liberal, not a southerner. I just don't see the down home folk from WV voting for a gun-grabbing Mass. lib.

I think Bush should be favored to win WV because of this.

[TomEwall]

I agree with Minnesota, but the other states I think make sense.

17% is about 5 to 1, which is about the same as what Illinois is. That seems about right to me. Maybe a little low, but not too much. It would take about a ten point movement in the polls for Bush to win, which is a lot.

I think Ohio and Florida are correct. For Kerry to win the election, he most likely has to take either Florida, Missouri or Ohio. Kerry is currectly a 3 to 2 dog to win the presidency, which is about the same odds as these states.

Likewise there would have to be quite a large movement in the polls for Louisiana to go to Kerry.

[hresources]

If you look at the States given to Kerry, several of them are close to a 50-50 split. On the other hand, all of the States give to Bush show the probability of him winning those States very high. I can't see Kerry taking any of the States given Bush, but I sure can see Bush taking some of Kerry's.

[TomEwall]

WV has been kind of puzzling for me too. I guess it's the job situation that has made people think WV has moved to Kerry. In addition to the factors you cited, WV is a very patriotic state, which should help Bush.

Bush took WV by 6 points last time, which is quite a lot to move. OTOH, Gore took PA by 5. It seems odds to think that both PA and WV have gotten tighter.

[ought-six]

"They think Bush has a 65% chance of winning Ohio?"

Busg stands a better chance of winning Pennsylvania and Michigan than he does Ohio, and this survey shows Bush losing BOTH Pennsylvania and Michigan. If this survey is anywhere near accurate, we've got a problem.

[Plutarch]

This looks like it means Kerry would have to win Florida, Missouri or Ohio. These states are at 61, 63 and 65 resp.

From Kerry's perspective it looks quite daunting. There are no 50-60% Bush states for Kerry to capture, but plenty of 40-50% Bush states for Bush to work on.

[MattinNJ]

One thing is for sure-don't bet on Jersey. Joisey is lost.

[The Californian]

bump for further study

[cuz_it_aint_their_money]

I would have to agree with the others here,
Pennsylvania (and not just cuz I’m from there) and West Virginia are a statistical “dead heat.”
I think the only reason that they are giving these states to Kerry is to keep betting interest up.

[zbigreddogz]

Why? He lost both last time and won, and this time, because of the census, he could lose a small state he won, such as Navada, New Hampshire, or West Virginia, and still won.

I think he'll carry Ohio, and every other state he carried last time, minus one or two, plus 3 or 4 Gore sates.

[zbigreddogz]

I hope your right about Lousiana, it was a squeeker last time. A point or two I believe.

And I just thought I would point out, because of the census, Missouri won't win it for Kerry if Bush picks up any of the possible Blue States. I think this election will be decided by Ohio and Florida, and I think Bush is strongly favored to win both.

[TomEwall]

Bush won by 8 points, pretty comfortably in that election. http://www.jsonline.com/election2000/nov00/preztally110700.asp

[JohnBDay]

I just don't see the down home folk from WV voting for a gun-grabbing Mass. lib.

They did in 1988.

[TomEwall]

Actually Bush could lose 2 of those states and still win. Given the same results as last time, he would win 278-260 (interestingly enough, this agrees with what is shown above, except WV and NM are flip-flopped). NV, NH and WV have 4 or 5 EV's. Losing 2 of them could make it a tie, in which case Bush would most likely win. Plus there's a chance one of the Maine EV's could go to Bush. (Maine is an odd state that doesn't necessarily give all the delegates to one guy).

I agree with you regarding Ohio. Of the 3 states, OH, PA and FL, I think Ohio is the least likely to go to Kerry. It's really hard to see Bush winning the election if he loses Ohio.

A recent poll shows Bush slightly ahead in Michigan. Given that, it's hard to see how he could be behind in Ohio. I think the people betting the money have it right, and Ohio is a likely Bush state at this point.

[lasereye]

I think this election will be decided by Ohio and Florida, and I think Bush is strongly favored to win both.

According to the polls Kerry leads slightly in FL. I believe Bush is even or slightly ahead in OH. I don't know where you get strongly favored. I think there's a good chance every state goes the same as last time except that one or both of those goes Democratic giving Kerry the election.

[JohnBDay]

Oh, and does Bush really have an 83% chance at winning Indiana? Seems a bit high to me, especially if Kerry picks Evan Bhay (SP?)

To me it seems low. Indiana has gone for the Republican candidate in fifteen of the past sixteen presidential elections.

[NarniaSC]

But what would have to happen for Bush to win D.C.?

Untouched photos of a smiling Kerry in full KKK regalia.

[pctech]

It would be great if someone could track how the figures have changed over the time period this tracking poll has been taking place. Any takers??????

[Momaw Nadon]

It would be great if someone could track how the figures have changed over the time period this tracking poll has been taking place. Any takers??????

See post #2.

[pctech]

I don't mean that exactly, I mean a speadsheet or sorts so us numbnuts (As Congressman Billy Bob likes to say) have something we can point to and actually see the trend.