Numbers do not favor Kerry's bid

The Washington Times ^ | 3-21-04 | David Lambro

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry will have to carry nearly three-fourths of the states in the North, Midwest and West to overcome President Bush's strength across most of the South, presidential campaign advisers said yesterday.

A state-by-state snapshot review of the preliminary electoral numbers shows that at this point in the campaign Mr. Bush continues to maintain his party's vaunted lock on most of the Old Confederacy, the border states and the western Plains states. Of the states in these regions, only three are considered tossups right now

[GeronL]

HAAHHAHAHA

and the liberal media knows this, and they will try their darndest to get Kerry elected

[goldstategop]

Donald Lambro is usually good at figuring out trends but there's a caveat here. He's playing to the conventional wisdom the election will be a rerun of 2000. It could very well be a rerun of 1988.

[stylin19a]

Too many ifs. Key state this time around: Ohio.

[Tall_Texan]

FYI...

Note that he has Nevada among the "safe" states for Bush and New Jersey among the "safe" states for Kerry. Note too that he isn't expecting much of a fight in Arkansas and Louisiana, two places where the "Solid South" strategy is least likely to hold.

[goldstategop]

A fight will be over Pennslyvania and Ohio. President Bush has to carry at least ONE of them to be re-elected in November.

[AUH2OY2K]

Kerry is already starting to implode. The media cover up of Kerry's true colors will become undone as the public slowly turns its eyes to the election.
He promises to be the next Mondale.

[I_dmc]

yep. look for Kerry's campaign to be dealt a death blow just before the Rat convention. Then who could they call on to "save the party"?

[prion]

"The reason why this race is likely to be so close is not because the popular vote is going to be so evenly divided, but also because of the relative strength of the two parties are reflected in the electoral map," Mr. Reed said.

I take his point, that the country is highly and evenly polarized along party lines, but I just can't see it as such a squeaker this time. The professional Bush haters are powerfully emotional, but small in number. All the rest of us...well, John Kerry? He's a desperately unattractive guy, and he's got eight more months to show it to the country.

Of course, I thought Bush was going to walk it in 2000, too.

[LS]

Right now, Bush is ahead in PA, MICH!, and Dales has him in a virtual tossup (if not ahead) in NJ. I live in OH, and there have been no good polls in OH, esp. since the Kerry meltdowns.

[Puzzleman]

A fight will be over Pennslyvania and Ohio.

I agree. I think Ridge and Ashcroft will deliver Pennsylvania. Ridge was a popular governor there, and he is highly visible as Homeland Security Head. And Ashcroft will stop the fraud in Philadelphia.

[alwaysconservative]

Bump for later reading.

[Stentor]

And Ashcroft will stop the fraud in Philadelphia.

He is as likely to pull Excalibur out of a stone.

[The Wizard]

I think GWB has a chance in both NY and California....

[irish guard]

>>>>>>— Florida, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia and New Hampshire — which today would give him 67 more electoral votes, eight more than he needs to win. Mr. Gore won the other six — Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania <<<<<<<<<

Flame me if you will, but they make it sound like Kerry will have a hard time winning some of the other states....Well, he's going to win all the northeast (New Hampshire excluded) and the West (Alaska excluded), so the states listed above are where both of them will campaign entirely.

11 states will receive all the attention in the upcoming election and some of those will continue to be damn tough for Bush....Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin are all still Democrat leaners. New Mexico is a tough call, but I think Bush can win it. Florida does not seem to be a walkover for Bush at this time. New Hampshire should go to Bush and the rest are all rust belt states hit hard by job losses. I just don't see the ease of the win yet. If we have a repeat of 2000 but instead, Bush loses Florida and wins New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, he still loses the election.

[Puzzleman]

He is as likely to pull Excalibur out of a stone.

How about, he will diminish the fraud in Philadelphia.

[LLBeet]

Kerry his own worst enemy, since he is a man of no convictions and has no qualms in saying whatever pleases his latest audience. That kind of man does not deserve to be President, no matter what packaging his handlers wrap around him.

[Libloather]

Hillary on 11/10/00 - "We are a very different country than we were 200 years ago, and I believe strongly that in a democracy, we should respect the will of the people and to me, that means it's time to do away with the Electoral College and move to the popular election of our president."

[Stentor]

How about, he will diminish the fraud in Philadelphia.

I think he lacks human intelligence assets in West Philly. He probably has better sources in Waziristan. ( I really am not trying to be a pain but Philly is a toilet. )

[tet68]

Key state this time around: Ohio.

Yes, YES! We all must remember,
THE KEY STATE IS YOUR STATE!
THAT'S EVERY STATE IN THE UNION!

We cannot afford to have anything less than a MANDATE,
or we will be facing the same blather we have heard for
the last three years,"You didn't really win~!"

Our nation faces a war like it has never seen before,
one fought on our home soil, we cannot be divided and
have a democrat fifth column dragging us to defeat!