Replies

This is the article that explains how we have never had positive job growth two years after a recession. My memory was correct - it's an Investor's Business Daily article:
Article Title: "Job Fears Fall, But Still High, Dec. Poll Finds "
Author: BRIAN MITCHELL
Section: Business & The Economy
Date: 12/8/2003

Things are looking up for President Bush on the jobs front, which keeps improving as he hopes to keep his own job in 2004.

Early results of an ongoing IBD/TIPP poll find job fears down sharply in December.

Just 16% of those polled said they fear a family member will lose a job in the next 12 months. That's down four percentage points from November. It's better than five points below the average of 21.3% for the past six months.

And it's the lowest response to the question since it was first asked in December 2001. The prior low was 18% in April 2002.

"With a positive economic outlook, Americans feel more secure in their jobs," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.

Fewer also said a family member has lost a job in the past year. Just 20% said so in December, compared with 25% in November and 25.3% on average for the past six months.

That also was the lowest response since the question was first asked two years ago.

The previous record low was 22% in April 2002.

Confidence in Bush's economic policies rose six points to 53%. All of the gain was in the "somewhat confident" group. The "very confident" didn't change.

Just 44% said they were not confident, down six points from November. Those who said they were not at all confident dropped four points to 15%.

Slightly fewer Americans blame Bush policies for the weak job market. That number was down two points to 65%. The number who said Bush's policies are not responsible for the weak job market stayed the same.

But finding work remains hard.

"Three-fourths of Americans (74%) still say it is very difficult or somewhat difficult to get a job these days in their neighborhood," Mayur said.

That number has not changed in the past four months.

But the news on jobs and economic growth has changed. Third-quarter gross domestic product surged at a revised 8.2% annual rate, the best since 1984.

Friday's jobs report showed unemployment fell slightly for a second straight month, down to 5.9%.

Jobs, Not Spin

But the economy isn't producing as many jobs as expected. Nonfarm payrolls were up just 57,000. After October's gain of 137,000, economists had expected a November gain of 150,000.

Even 150,000 is well below the administration's predictions.

The president's Council of Economic Advisers said in February the White House's "Jobs and Growth Plan" would create 5.5 million jobs by the end of 2004. That would be 306,000 new jobs each month, starting in July 2003, when the plan went into effect.

November's 57,000 new jobs fell 249,000 jobs short of the plan.

"The administration's tax cuts are failing to generate a healthy number of jobs, no matter how the administration tries to spin this report," said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute.

The EPI notes that for the first time since monthly job statistics began in 1939, there hasn't been positive growth in jobs two years after a recession ended. Instead, there's been a 0.6% decline.

But predictions and comparisons won't matter to voters in 2004, says Larry Sabato, professor of government at the University of Virginia.

"Even uninformed citizens know that it's a step forward and a half-step back in a recovery, but the overall impressions by midsummer, for Bush to benefit, must be a steady progress - must be," Sabato said. "What's important is whether we are adding or subtracting jobs, whether the overall picture is bright or grim."

IBD/TIPP polled 722 adults Dec. 1-4. The margin of error is plus-minus 3.7.