The Poll Results You Haven’t Seen

www.nationalreview.com ^

[bogdanPolska12]

By now you've read about new polls showing Democrat John Kerry leading George W. Bush in the presidential race. The most recent Gallup poll, for instance, has Kerry leading Bush by a 50-percent-to-44-percent margin, with third-party candidate Ralph Nader pulling two percent. Kerry leads Bush 52 percent to 44 percent in a one-on-one match-up.

The results have attracted a lot of coverage. But there are some other results in the poll that haven't gotten as much attention.

For example, Gallup found that the public seems to believe Kerry and the Democratic party have, at least so far, conducted a dirtier campaign than Bush and the Republican party.

Gallup asked, "Would you say that George W. Bush and the Republican party have — or have not — attacked John Kerry unfairly?" Twenty-one percent said yes, Bush and the GOP have attacked Kerry unfairly, while 67 percent said no, they have not. Twelve percent had no opinion.

Then Gallup asked, "Would you say that John Kerry and the Democratic party have — or have not — attacked George W. Bush unfairly?" Thirty-five percent said yes, Kerry and the Democrats have attacked Bush unfairly, while 57 percent said no, they have not. Eight percent had no opinion.

Breaking down the numbers by party, 33 percent of Democrats said Bush and the Republicans have attacked Kerry unfairly. But 53 percent of Democrats said Bush and the Republican party have not attacked Kerry unfairly.

Twenty-one percent of independents said Bush has been unfair, but 65 percent of independents said Bush and the GOP have not attacked Kerry unfairly.

Nine percent of Republicans believe Bush has been unfair, while 84 percent believe he hasn't.

Looked at from the other party's perspective, 59 percent of Republicans said Kerry and the Democrats have attacked Bush unfairly, while just 35 percent said Kerry and the Democrats have not attacked Bush unfairly.

Thirty-five percent of independents said Kerry has been unfair, while 55 percent said Kerry has not attacked Bush unfairly.

Thirteen percent of Democrats said Kerry has been unfair, while 80 percent said he has not.

In all, it appears that Republicans feel more aggrieved at the moment — not surprising, given the months of Democratic campaigning and the Bush campaign's belated counterattacks. But perhaps more importantly, more independents seem to believe that Kerry and the Democrats have been unfair than believe that Bush has been unfair.

Finally, the poll had one more surprising finding. Gallup asked respondents, "Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November?" Fifty-two percent said Bush, while 42 percent said Kerry. Six percent had no opinion.

[July 4th]

"Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November?" Fifty-two percent said Bush, while 42 percent said Kerry.

To quote Dennis Kucinich, "I'm electable if you vote for me!"

[Slings and Arrows]

To quote Dennis Kucinich, "I'm electable if you vote for me!"

Quite possibly for the first time in his life, he's right.

[evad]

Kerry leads Bush 52 percent to 44 percent in a one-on-one match-up.

LOL ;-)
Lotsa special sauce in that poll.

[RasterMaster]

What I wanna know is turnout in these primaries....some time ago I recall a post which stated this is "lowest turnout" in some number of years.

What I think is that if only 20% of democraps actually turned out to cast a ballot, then we are talking LANDSLIDE by epic proportions. So, comparing polling numbers doesn't exactly mean a victory for the opposition.

Anyone have these stats?

[cripplecreek]

I can't speak for other states, but here in Michigan we had 3 types of voting. we had online voting, mail in voting and regular walk in voting.

The number predicted for the night of the caucus was about a half million. In reality only around 160,000 showed up give or take a few.

[DaBroasta]

Here's a poll result you won't see either. I polled 10 likley voters today and Bush lead Kerry with 100% to 0%.

[visualops]

Voter participation in the front-loaded Democratic primaries that helped turn John Kerry into the party's presumptive nominee was among the lowest ever, according to a study released Tuesday.
An estimated 10.3 million people in 19 states and the District of Columbia cast votes in Democratic primaries through March 2, constituting just 11.4 percent of the electorate, said the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. The nonpartisan, nonprofit research organization specializes in voter turnout issues.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/03/09/politics1609EST0713.DTL

If you go to any primary state's results page, you can see the turnout.
For example in Virginia:
Statewide Results
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY ELECTION
Precincts Reporting: 2377 of 2377 (100.00%)
Registered Voters: 4,253,483
Total Voting: 396,181
Voter Turnout: 9.31 %

Now of course you'll have to distinguish between total registered voters and those eligible to vote in the Dem primary. One would also have to compare with previous turnout. This year, early seperate primaries had high turnout (due to money and focus no doubt) such as New Hampshire (something like 23% turnout).

[CyberAnt]

160,000 = is that democrats? I'm assuming it is.

These kinds of stats have been leaking out. The sense I'm getting is that dems are not showing up for the primaries. While that's not all that unusual, the dems seem to be indicating people are showing up in droves; which is apparently not true.

The dems put out there that they're expecting 500,000 people, but they never bother to inform the public on the actual number of people who show up; obviously to give the impression they got what they were expecting.

[CWOJackson]

"For example, Gallup found that the public seems to believe Kerry and the Democratic party have, at least so far, conducted a dirtier campaign than Bush and the Republican party."

Amazing. And we have so many "new" members pushing for President Bush to show some spine and go negative. Hmmmmmm.

[raloxk]

Think Byron York would have written this if Bush was leading

[cinFLA]

Nine percent of Republicans believe Bush has been unfair,

Must be the 'libertarian wing' of the GOP.

[cinFLA]

Nine percent of Republicans believe Bush has been unfair,

Must be the 'libertarian wing' of the GOP.

[RasterMaster]

Thanks for the stats....THAT WAS FAST! I knew I saw it on FR!

[jpf]

The two polls by Gallup are of LIKELY voters and for some reason Gallup thinks Democrats are more energized so hence more likely to vote. One thing, it's only MARCH!!!!!! Among registered voters it's actually only a 2% Kerry lead,well within the margin of error and more in line with the other polls that show this thing dead even.

Yet which one do the media play up?

[alrea]

Voter Turnout: 9.31 %

A high percentage of those that turned out were believed to be government workers that were allowed to leave for the day if they voted.

[JusPasenThru]

I think this is an example of the Clinton legacy destroying the Democratic party.

Clinton was a dirty campaigner and a liar but he was so darn good at it that he made it look easy. Since then other ranking Democratics think they can get away with it, too. However, they are so clumsy and inept that they just look like whiney idiots in the process. What better examples are there of this principle than the nine dwarfs?

Think of it this way, Sir Lawrence Olivier could convince us that something really was rotten in Denmark, but if I tried to emulate his performance, I'd look like an effing Kerry idiot.

Mark my words, this will not go well in our "sin cajones" culture.

[SFConservative]

Finally, the poll had one more surprising finding. Gallup asked respondents, "Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November?" Fifty-two percent said Bush, while 42 percent said Kerry. Six percent had no opinion.

That is the most significant result, because it is the expectation of the outcome that reflects motivation and expresses itself in turnout and in last-minute vote switches to the expected winner. I suspect it also reflects who people would like to really see win as opposed to who they think they are supposed to be for.

[Rodm]

Didn't these stupid polls show Dean winning in Iowa?
Kerry is Toast

[Sola Veritas]

When one looks at the race based on electorial votes, Bush wins. A cross country poll of the popular vote is so much nonsense. They need to effectively poll representative numbers in each state to determine who will win that state's electorial votes. Then say who will win the election.