maui_hawaii MEGA PING!! ;-)
Posted on 03/02/2004 10:20:18 PM PST by maui_hawaii
Since coming into office the Bush Administration has had relatively interesting stances on China. In many ways Bush policies are in contrast to historical realities of US-China relations, the main difference being straight forwardness and clarity to an unprecedented level. In other ways the Bush Administration’s policies are rooted in history. This seeming contrast is not due to a change in policy by this Administration, but by other Administration’s deviance from US-China historical relations and the often time waffling on issues. In this article I wish to discuss and describe many of the factors, actions, reasons, and reasoning behind this Administration’s mode of operations.
The first thing to point out is a solid belief in a historical standard regarding China. In previous Administrations, including, but not limited to the Clinton Administration, China fell into a fuzzy area of foreign policy. In essence China was almost a tool of convenience and the basis for relations with China were not fundamental, nor based on background. In the Bush Administration this was done away with. The powers that be actually began to make use of a large and talented pool of actual experts to make decisions. This was not limited to the Administration, but included Congress also.
One of the main strengths of the current policies, and even the underlying process for making policy, is the use of real experts who understand the intricacies of history, but who refuse to be drawn into the many side tracked debates made about China. Before, there was the “red team” and the “blue team”. You were either for China, or you hated China. Being ‘for’ often ultimately meant and resulted in excusing all sorts of bad behavior from China. Being against meant China could never do anything right. Not only the Bush Administration, but Congress also has done a lot to break this bad cycle.
The Clinton years could easily be considered the most unprincipled years of US China relations. Many decisions were made on a sheer political level without much consideration given to history. It was that low point, combined with dangerous outbursts from China, the Cox Report, China’s emergence on the world economic stage, accusations of spying, biased “intelligence” reporting, and whole host of issues that inspired Congress to create the US China Commission. The reforms instituted largely tried to de-politicize internal dealings regarding China. In recent years it has gone from a personal attack fest to much more of an academic debate. In that professionally conducted academic debate there is strength.
The second point is the Bush Administration has refused to try to ‘differentiate’ itself from previous Administrations in sheer political means. It is operating fundamentally differently, much of which is mentioned above, which that speaks volumes in and of, and for itself.
What I refer to is the Bush Administration has refrained from falling into ‘other politicians did this, so we have to do that’ type of differentiation, or rather disagreeing or changing just for the sake of political purposes. Decisions are made using a much more academic methodology. Again, there has been a systematic and recognizable effort to make our dealings with China seamless, historically consistent, and based on academics.
Doing things in this manner allows us to really tackle the meat and potatoes issues with China. Engagement of this sort means real engagement. One government official said ‘engagement no longer means just drinking tea and playing ping pong’. Before hard issues were not met head on and hence relations were actually rather weak. Everyone was in essence walking on egg shells on both sides of the Pacific. The Bush Administration has succeeded in getting a lot of things previously off limits up and out on the table. Of course that came from shaking up the box. Nothing was considered fragile, not even the fragile feelings of the Chinese. We quite simply ‘let ‘em have it’. The airplane collision aided in this process and galvanized many in Washington for a much more firm stance on China. Politicians and Intelligence officials were forced out of their ideological shells with that one incident. In short, currently the US is dealing with China in a much more forthright manner. Admittedly some of it was an in your face ‘discussion’ often accompanied by threats of one sort or another—from the US. Rightfully though, much of it was not joking. It was serious and taken as such.
Because of those developments China has been much more behaved. In the last couple of years China has been a much more civil and less prone to vile rhetoric. Now in the post 9-11 American mind—and China and the Bush Administration are both very aware of this—America will not be threatened. Because of this the Administration is taking care not to let things spiral downward. Both sides are realizing that we have relations and long term interests in mind. The Bush Administration, while employing the new form of ‘engagement’ is taking the long view of trying to maintain good relations. Mostly they are trying to be civil as of late. This is why the Administration is not taking an ultra hard line on China. They are trying to remain reasonable where many others would not.
One of the issues currently being tackled is regarding currency. While many do not see progress, there in fact has been much. The fact that they are even discussing this in real official talks is progress, but it goes far beyond that. However, the Bush Administration is being realistic, but is also results oriented on this issue. China will reform its system as a direct result of American pressure. Period. Technical talks on how to reform have just been concluded. It is not, nor ever will be a one shot deal, but change is on the way. The Bush Administration is being realistic in recognizing that China cannot turn on a dime. The US is not merely pressuring and demanding, but assisting in technical issues for the ultimate goal to take place. To the layman it might look like nothing is happening, but to the trained eye they are going well into uncharted territory. China knows if they don’t there will be serious consequences.
In short though, the Bush Administration is currently resisting taking too hard of a line on China. For the time being things are cordial. They are doing this in order to prevent a serious downward spiral in relations. This includes issues regarding Taiwan. The Bush Administration is being very aggressive, but is taking pains not to be overly aggressive. They are doing so with relatively short term goals in mind (Korea, currency, war) as well as to maintain a basis for long term relations. In brief, America has taken the role of a mean SOB asshole, but with goals in mind, but also while taking care not to push too far and to have China realize the goals are in their interests too.
In conclusion the US China relationship is currently the most open, and forthright, and productive as it ever has been since normalization. It took carrying a big stick to get there, but the relationship is there and it is producing results.
Make comments at will.
Comments?
I'll get a ping list together, I just don't want to be a ping list abuser...
What are these results?
STOP PINGLIST ABUSE...NOW!!
LOL...MUD
An early test of Bush, forgotten by many. The Chinese thought, and wanted to test out the theory, that they had another Clinton in the WH.
We are winning ~ the bad guys are losing ~ trolls, terrorists and the democrats are sad ~ very sad!
The preperations for these talks have been going on for a long time... I think since the leader of China made his visit last year.
Since that time China has also had a major bank bail out. I think it was due largely in part from foreign pressure.
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BANKING
Currently foreign banks are not permitted to do local currency business with Chinese clients (a few can engage in local currency business with their foreign clients). China imposes severe geographic restrictions on the establishment of foreign banks.
China has committed to full market access in five years for U.S. banks.
Foreign banks will be able to conduct local currency business with Chinese enterprises starting 2 years after accession.
Foreign banks will be able to conduct local currency business with Chinese individuals from 5 years after accession.
Foreign banks will have the same rights (national treatment) as Chinese banks within designated geographic areas.
Both geographic and customer restrictions will be removed in five years
Non-bank financial companies can offer auto financing upon accession
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That is China's WTO agreement on banking...in a nutshell.
The specific technical issues are extremely complex.
As for what specifically its hard to say. They did send Snow and at other times a whole delgation of experts to discuss the issues. They have also stationed people in the embassy (supposedly) to help on the transition.
Again, its not an event we should be looking for. Its a process maybe a year or two long.
In part its to help them comply with the WTO among other things.
Taiwan, Hong Kong, currency, Korea, human rights...
Its not a one dimensional thing.
Its not a fix all or nothing kind of thing.
The mode of operations is more of what I am talking about. Its not at all that one person took over and fixed it all.
In many of those dimensions there has been progress. In others backsliding.
The current way to engage though is accomplishing more difficult issues than at any other time in our relations. I am not talking in absolute terms, but comparing our current engagements with previous methods of engagements.
None of them were 100% effective, but this one is better by far than the previous ones.
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