Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Eleven (The Battlegrounds)

various

[JohnnyZ]

Pure speculation, but I wonder if these NJ numbers reflect any leftover anger/disgust with the whole Torricelli/Lautenburg election law violation?

Or their lovely governor, though his unpopularity didn't help Republicans in the 2003 state leg. elections.

[AntiGuv]

Sure there is. I actually think it is likely that we will come very close to doing just that [recovering everything that's been lost].

You think the economy will create more than 350,000 new jobs per month between now and November?

[Dane]

It always annoys me when people toss out personal anecdotes

Like you did in your reply #40.

As for your personal opinion about Nevada. Nevadans in 2002 struck down by a wide margin a gay marriage amendment in 2002. Also taxes and other social issues will be a major issues, which will also be in play in West Virginia. Add in Bush's more lax policies towards coal and West Virginia isn't the lost cause you think it is. Looking at the history of the state they voted overwhelmingly twice before for Republican incumbants.

Bush hasn't even started campaigning yet, but is ramping up right after super Tuesday, so your personal anecdotes withstanding, there is still a long way to November.

Hope you didn't take any offense.

[Coop]

Why would I take offense? My comments were quite clearly directed at my own "wealth" during the past year and the past three years.

Sorry you're so bothered about personal anecdotes. That's kind of how I feel about the use of selective data.

I don't give a hoot about the NASDAQ. I have one lousy tech stock. On Feb 14, 2000 the DJIA was under 10,500. This morning it is around 10,650.

No offense. :-)

[Dales]

Gee, every time I turn around people keep trying to up the number of jobs lost due to the Clinton recession and the attacks of 9/11. The commonly accepted number is 2.6 million. Do I think the economy is capable of adding 290,000 jobs per month? Sure do.

[AntiGuv]

When you understand the difference between a personal anecdote and a personal opinion then get back to me and I'll read your reply past the first sentence.

Have a g'day Dane.

[AntiGuv]

Personal anecdotes do not bother me at all; I frequently enjoy reading personal anecdotes from my fellow freepers, especially when they involve good news.

What bothers me is personal anecdotes on the economy as if they are representative of anything besides themselves, when there are perfectly good statistics available from which to draw conclusions of general applicability.

Generalizing from personal anecdotes tends to divorce one from a proper perception of wider reality, and usually in the direction of one's biases.

[Dane]

When you understand the difference between a personal anecdote and a personal opinion then get back to me and I'll read your reply past the first sentence.

Well I guess when I see you post again, my stating my anecdote about you being pompous and pointing people to your pompousity on this thread automatically disqualifies you from reading any opinions or points I may be making.

Whatever, people have a right to live with blinders on.

[chimera]

...there is still a long way to November.

Very very true and a good reminder. This is why the Bush team needs to get out there and start delivering some shots to the Rats rather than just taking them. It would be foolish to place all your bets on a post-convention bounce or a late surge. Bush 41 did that in '92 and got creamed, and we suffered through eight years of probably the most ruinous presidency in history, in terms of damage to the office and faith in the system and the moral fiber of the country (and other things as well). It's a mistake we can't afford to repeat. But we will if we get President Kerry and a Rat House and Senate come January.

[Coop]

I can't speak for you, but my 401K and other investments have done extremely well in the past year.

While you are of course entitled to your opinion, I think it's safe to say your argument really doesn't apply to my previous posts.

[AntiGuv]

The last employment report that will be reported before election day will be that of September 2004. The number I tracked down was 2.8 million lost jobs according to the Department of Labor as of January. Those 2.8 million jobs divided by 8 monthly employment reports gives you 350,000 new jobs a month that must be created to restore that which has been lost. If it's 2.6 million (which is fine by me) then the number is 325,000.

I didn't ask if you think the economy is capable of adding 290,000 or 325,000 jobs per month (what is it with people answering the question they want to see). This economy is easily capable of adding at least half a million jobs or more each month. What I did ask was if you think the economy will add 350,000 (or 325,000 or even 290,000 if you prefer) new jobs each month between now and the end of September.

[AntiGuv]

The Dow peaked (near 12,000) in January 2000 whereas the Nasdaq peaked in March, and so it is inaccurate to use the Dow of 2/23 2000 as a comparable barometer. Actually, it's inaccurate to use either, when what one should actually use is the all-time high set that winter for each index. I just didn't feel like looking them up.

[Coop]

I think Nevada will be near impossible for Bush unless he wins a national landslide anyhow.

Huh? I'll be surprised if Dubya loses NV. He won it in '00, and he's now a proven incumbent. Voter registration has favored the GOP since 2000 as well.

2000: GOP - 366.4K, Dems - 365.6K; +900 GOP
http://http://www.gp.org/documents/vote_reg.html

2004: GOP - 376K, Dems - 368K; +8,000 GOP
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/lv-gov/2004/jan/22/516219849.html

[Coop]

It's inaccurate because you say it is? Uh, no. Doesn't work that way. I chose a point three years ago this week, which coincides directly with my "over the past three years" comment. Fascinating, isn't it?

[dpa5923]

Please add me to the ping least.

[AntiGuv]

In 2000, George W. Bush stated that he would oppose approving the Yucca Mountain storage facility unless it met the stricter EPA standards advocated by Nevada (as opposed to those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission), which it never did.

[dpa5923]

Please add me to the ping least list.

[Dales]

I stand by what I said earlier- I think it is likely that the economy will come close to replacing all the jobs. How close? We'll see, just like we will see if I am right at all.

[Dales]

You obviously feel that will be a major factor in Nevada. While I agree it will be a factor, I do not think it will be enough of one to override other factors in the state. But as with everything, we'll see!

[JohnnyZ]

2004: GOP - 376K, Dems - 368K; +8,000 GOP

New voter registration total just came out after Clark County updates the rolls and booted a bunch of people to 'inactive'.

The latest registration figures show Republicans outnumbering Democrats 352,730 to 339,503, the largest margin in years. Nonpartisans numbered 128,039.

State’s number of active registered voters declines