2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 16, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	17.0	0	55
Colorado	80.0	9	0
Connecticut	20.0	0	7
Delaware	40.0	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	68.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	34.0	0	21
Indiana	87.0	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	83.0	9	0
Maine	43.0	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	51.0	17	0
Minnesota	37.0	0	10
Mississippi	94.0	6	0
Missouri	65.0	11	0
Montana	88.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	70.0	5	0
New Hampshire	58.0	4	0
New Jersey	16.0	0	15
New Mexico	58.0	5	0
New York	15.0	0	31
North Carolina	88.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	65.0	20	0
Oklahoma	93.0	7	0
Oregon	43.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	51.0	21	0
Rhode Island	5.0	0	4
South Carolina	82.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	85.0	11	0
Texas	93.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	7.0	0	3
Virginia	85.0	13	0
Washington	35.0	0	11
West Virginia	52.0	5	0
Wisconsin	49.0	0	10
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		321	217

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 321 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 217 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[COEXERJ145]

District of Columbia 2.0

Jee, what a surprise. /sarcasm

[11th_VA]

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pensylvannia, leaning GOP? This is where the battle will be.

[Lunatic Fringe]

Hmm, putting all the key battleground states in Bush's column is a bit optimistic (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan).

[Recovering_Democrat]

Same as last week.

[Dead Dog]

How is their track record in past elections?

[smith288]

Unfortunately, The Columbus Dispatch is apparnelty not going to endorse Bush this year... Ohio is going to ber a battleground as well.

You have the Dispatch (formerly conservative but they brough in some Plain Dealer boobs) and the Cleveland Plain Dealer trying to manipulate voter opinion...

[smith288]

And I need to learn how to press "SPELL" before posting.

[Momaw Nadon]

Michigan (51%) and Pennsylvania (51%) are barely leaning GOP.

Wisconsin (49%) is barely leaning Democrat.

[tkathy]

How anyone in their right mind would not vote for Bush is beyond me.

[CSM]

I am extremely doubtful that MI will go for Bush. Jenny from the bloc is working hard to kill the state and Dems will be able to scream the "it's Bush's fault" loud. The non thinkers will believe it!

[Dan from Michigan]

I think we have a shot if it's a Masshole(apology to Freeps from Massachusetts) Liberal.

[Momaw Nadon]

How is their track record in past elections?

I believe TradeSports.com got started in 2002.

[CSM]

How close was it in 2000?

[alisasny]

Its amazing isnt it. A non political friend told me no offense but Bush has got to go. I said why and she said, " he is bad on us middle-classers." I said what are you talking about your not middle class...you make over 100K. She got confused, and I said I will be giving her an economy lesson for the rest of the year. It amazed me that she was more concerned about finance then security. There lies our problem..we must convince those who dont care but vote in presidential elections every 4 years that SECURITY IS THE ISSUE ....

[no dems]

I WISH! I'm afraid however, that you are wrong on Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio. Not this year.

[Dan from Michigan]

With Record Detroit turnout.

51.28% Alwhore, 46.14% Bush

And Posthumus overperformed Bush

[hosepipe]

What if illegal and legal aliens find a way to vote with a little help or no help at all.... say 5% to 10% of them of 10 to 20 'illions of them... all they would needed is a drivers license and some fake documencation and say an address.. who would challege them.?. in Mexifornia it must already be a common occurance..

[Kath]

I disagre. Bush has a good shot at Michigan. His approval rating is good here. He has gained more support here in Michigan then he had in 2000. It will be close but I believe Bush will take Michigan this time around.