Outside Looking In (Bill Clinton, Al Gore soon will be non-persons to the Democrats)

The Newhouse News Service ^ | February 10, 2004 | Miles Benson

[Mo1]

Where is Edwards going to get the delegates? He won't last much longer.

From the super delegates ... there are enough to maybe swing it his way

That is one to watch out for .. another is who the Clinton go to .. Plus Edwards is broke .. so look for a money trail

Also .. be on the look out for what the Edwards Camp does with hits on Kerry

In Iowa .. it was the Edwards camp that gave the media a copy of the hit fliers on Dean that Kerry was giving out

[Fledermaus]

Aren't all the super delegates part of the unpledged?

If so, that's only a total of 801. So he'll still need to get another 1,360 from the pledged - the share of the votes in each primary if he can get over 15%.

He'd have to come on strong in Wisconsin, and do well on Super Tuesday with the big votes in GA, OH, MI, NY and CA.
But he's going to have a hard time in VT, CT, MD, MA and RI and possibly NY.

Then on 3/9/04 he'd have to real well in FL, LA and TX followed the next week by KS and IL. Then there's not much until CO on 4/13/04 and PA on 4/27/04 where his "two Americas" might sell to the unionized idiots.

After that it's slim pickings with IN at 67 and AL with 54 and even Puerto Rico with 54...then NJ with 107 on 6/08/04 ending up in NC on 6/20/04 with 90.

I haven't yet, but later tonight when I'm bored or tomorrow I'll run the actual numbers and give you a breakdown based on current state primary polls and do some extrapolation after March 9th if Edwards stays alive, which I dought.

I should at least be able to tell how well he has to do in those states, and more I didn't list like Nebraska and Kentucky and Arkansas and Oregon to gain enough mathematically.

[Fledermaus]

Typo: Puerto Rico has 51 pledged delegates.

[CyberAnt]

"It is delusional to think Bill Clinton isn't still running the dimocrat party"

You got it!!

[Mo1]

If so, that's only a total of 801.

Really?? .. I thought the number was higher then that

Anyhow .. you are correct, he would have to pull a strong showing in those states .. which I don't think he can, unless something really bad happens to Kerry

[Pukin Dog]

Edwards will get what he needs at the Convention

[Prodigal Son]

The ticket will be Edwards and Clinton. Count on it.

Out of curiosity, what is the chain of events that will lead to that happening in your opinion?

I'm figuring Kerry's going to hit a roadblock soon but haven't decided if it would be enough to derail him or not.

[Mo1]

OK .. you were right on the number .. but from what I can tell the super delegates can play a big part

http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/USA_elections.htm

The delegates, once at a convention, vote for a candidate for the presidential election. Super-delegates have tended to muddy this system, and therefore the whole voting structure at the national conventions.

Super-delegates are senior civil servants, governors, ex-presidents and old-established figures within the party - be it Democrat or Republican. The super-delegates inflate the number of people who can vote at a convention and they can be very influential in the final decision of who runs for presidency for the party that they represent. Super-delegates are not voted for by state parties and they tend to undermine the issue of state party democracy.



Then check this out

http://www.johnkerry.com/endorsements/pdf/super_delegates.pdf

[Fledermaus]

But with only 801 possible unpledged and/or super delegates, I really can't see how it can effect the pledged if you don't have the votes.

Edwards will need 1,360 pledged delegates to help him win and that assumes he gets all 801 in his corner.

Now, what happens to delegates of candidates that "dropped out" like Gephardt, Clark, etc.? Are they free to change to anyone or have to vote they way their loser backs another candidate like Gephardt to Kerry?

Figures the Dems would make something so simple so complicated! Just the way they do all simple functions of government.

[petertare]

There will eventually be a national examination beyond just Boston media. I cannot decide if his post-Vietnam war activities will play or not. The Dem base will not be influenced by his remarks made while Americans were dying in the field. I do wonder though if the long ago remarks made by the N Vietnamese officer will have impact. I kind of think so.

The bimbos, the anti-defense votes, the do-nothing career, the big donor/lobbyist connections will not stick.

What will impact his chances are events overseas, or another hit on homesoil. A good economy will hurt him, but that has not yet affected the disaffected (other than the professional disaffected of the left) which maintains a permanent opposition.

The crystal ball remains very hazy.

[Mo1]

Oh I don't disagre with you .. I'm just saying the way this Dem primary has been going ... anything is possible at this point

[Prodigal Son]

I'm thinking some veteran's groups are going to have some tough questions for Kerry to answer. I just don't see how he can answer why he took sides and stood with Jane Fonda without pissing even more people off.

He's bound to make a gaffe on that issue somehow and the media would be forced to roll with it from there.

It might look something like this in the headlines:

"Veteran's Group Condemns Kerry"

"Kerry Defends Anti-War Activities"

"Veterans' Group Fires Back at Senator, Says his Comments Outrageous"

"Kerry Apologizes for Comments to Veterans"

"Edwards Notes Kerry Flip-Flop on Anti-War Activities"

"Kerry Trails Edwards in latest Poll after Veterans"

"Jane Fonda Says Kerry Was Right to Protest"

"Kerry Endorses Edwards, Bows Out of Contest"

"Dean Goes Green!"

[Prodigal Son]

"Kerry Trails Edwards in latest Poll after Veterans"

should be

"Kerry Trails Edwards in latest Poll after Veterans Flap"

[oyez]

Kerry = Kennedy(Ted) light.

[Fledermaus]

Oh yeah...at this point!

Kerry could be found with a dead girl or a live boy in his bed next week! LOL

But then, for a Dem, that's normal and expected!

[Pukin Dog]

Kerry is going to get hit with his history and go into the convention looking very weak, and way down in the polls against Bush. The convention will go to Edwards after he pledges to nominate Hillary as his Veep.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Gore has become an object of ridicule for editorial cartoonists, Hess said.

Just "editorial cartoonists," Mr. Hess? Now you're just being modest, surely. :)

[Clock King]

I'm thinking some veteran's groups are going to have some tough questions for Kerry to answer. I just don't see how he can answer why he took sides and stood with Jane Fonda without pissing even more people off.

So far, his campaign handlers have done a good jobs of presenting only the "right" veterans to the media, even on Fox. All of them say Kerry is "one of us." NO ONE brings up his association with Hanoi Jane. None of them answer questions about his voting record.

[Prodigal Son]

Oh, it's going to come. This one's bubbling to the surface, you can sort of feel it. Like the way you feel about four hours after eating curry.

[petertare]

I hope his post-war antics are addressed. But at this point I sense it will be a very short cycle--maybe 48 hours if it does occur. It will be concluded with "that water went over the dam many years ago, and what the American people demand from the likes of G Bush cronies are good solid lesbian unions supported by a fair and decent administration. This President has poisoned.....".

There has not been a major national level examination of Kerry, and I do not see it happening in this campaign. But I do maintain crossed appendages in hopes you are correct.