[RichardW]

This is closer than it was in previous weeks. It appears that Michigan, Florida, New Mexico West Virginia and Pennyslivania are in play. That is enough to tip the election to Kerry.

What would change everything is if Osama is captured. That would give Bush the election. He would have been proven correct in his policy. And he needs to get the Iraq thing wrapped up. Lost another two men today. Death by a thousand cuts.

[FRgal4u]

Osama capture will change everything

but "think like a contrarian" -

The discovery a small amounts, not matter how small - evena vial of antrax, botox, sarin gas in Iraq -

will change everything as well.

The key is timing, we don't want either events to happen before September.

Ideal timing is between late Sept and late Oct.

If Osama is captured in July, people will forget about that in Nov.

Same with the discovery of small amts of WMDs in Iraq.

The other event is Terrorist attack on US soil -

IF we don't have anything by the end of March, any attacks on US soil will NOT hurt Bush in the polls.

In times of crisis, people will look at who has the steady hands, who can they trust. Only after the crisis is over, they would ask all the what if[s] and why not[s]..and if God forbid that we get hit again on US soil, and if the event is after end of March, there simply not enough time to deal with the what if[s] and why not[s]//

I believe the Osama or WMD in Iraq situation as the ELE event for the dims this fall - ELE = Extinction Level Event

Timing is everything and I sure hope our guys will grab Osama or WMD just in the nick of time.