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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, February 9, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 02/09/2004 6:54:46 AM PST by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama 95.0 9 0
Alaska 94.0 3 0
Arizona 78.0 10 0
Arkansas 68.0 6 0
California 20.0 0 55
Colorado 80.0 9 0
Connecticut 20.0 0 7
Delaware 39.0 0 3
District of Columbia 2.0 0 3
Florida 70.0 27 0
Georgia 90.0 15 0
Hawaii 13.0 0 4
Idaho 95.0 4 0
Illinois 38.0 0 21
Indiana 89.0 11 0
Iowa 41.0 0 7
Kansas 91.5 6 0
Kentucky 88.0 8 0
Louisiana 83.0 9 0
Maine 43.0 0 4
Maryland 20.0 0 10
Massachusetts 4.0 0 12
Michigan 51.0 17 0
Minnesota 40.0 0 10
Mississippi 96.0 6 0
Missouri 65.0 11 0
Montana 89.0 3 0
Nebraska 95.0 5 0
Nevada 70.0 5 0
New Hampshire 58.0 4 0
New Jersey 20.0 0 15
New Mexico 58.0 5 0
New York 21.0 0 31
North Carolina 88.0 15 0
North Dakota 95.0 3 0
Ohio 65.0 20 0
Oklahoma 93.0 7 0
Oregon 43.0 0 7
Pennsylvania 51.0 21 0
Rhode Island 5.0 0 4
South Carolina 85.0 8 0
South Dakota 95.0 3 0
Tennessee 86.0 11 0
Texas 95.0 34 0
Utah 95.0 5 0
Vermont 7.0 0 3
Virginia 85.0 13 0
Washington 36.0 0 11
West Virginia 52.0 5 0
Wisconsin 46.0 0 10
Wyoming 95.0 3 0
Totals   321 217


TOPICS: Extended News; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 321 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 217 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 02/09/2004 6:54:47 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
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To: Momaw Nadon
Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

2 posted on 02/09/2004 6:55:07 AM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Pennsylvania - 51% chance, where'd they get that? I'm from Pittsburgh, and these two big cities, Pitts. and Philly suck, all big time Democrat voter fraud, and it will be worse in November. And Bush lost PA in 2000. The whole damn state was red for Bush and only the two sick Democrat/fraud-ridden cities voted for Gore.

That's one thing that pisses me off about that red/blue state map.

The Map is much more illustrative of how much of the country was for Bush in 2000 by showing the precinct by precinct voting!

We'll see about 2004.

3 posted on 02/09/2004 7:06:55 AM PST by thesummerwind (Like painted kites, those days and nights, they went flyin' by)
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To: Momaw Nadon
That's a drop of 34 votes in one week. . .what happened ???
4 posted on 02/09/2004 7:15:42 AM PST by Salgak (don't mind me: the orbital mind control lasers are making me write this. . .)
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To: Salgak
Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), and Wisconsin (10) all went below 50% in the past week.
5 posted on 02/09/2004 7:20:17 AM PST by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
*Interesting* post bump.
6 posted on 02/09/2004 7:23:30 AM PST by FreedomPoster (This space intentionally blank)
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To: thesummerwind
West Alexander, here.

...and that's the problem in Pennsylvania ... the two, well ensconced political machines a-la Daley in the state control the 'votes'.

We have an excellent chance to bring about change by getting Pat Toomey elected and ousting the sphincter.

7 posted on 02/09/2004 7:40:27 AM PST by knarf (A place where anyone can learn anything ... especially that which promotes clear thinking.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
This is closer than it was in previous weeks. It appears that Michigan, Florida, New Mexico West Virginia and Pennyslivania are in play. That is enough to tip the election to Kerry.

What would change everything is if Osama is captured. That would give Bush the election. He would have been proven correct in his policy. And he needs to get the Iraq thing wrapped up. Lost another two men today. Death by a thousand cuts.
8 posted on 02/09/2004 8:27:20 AM PST by RichardW
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To: thesummerwind
Baltimore and D.C. suberbs do the same thing to Maryland.
9 posted on 02/09/2004 9:06:13 AM PST by zygoat
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To: RichardW
Osama capture will change everything

but "think like a contrarian" -

The discovery a small amounts, not matter how small - evena vial of antrax, botox, sarin gas in Iraq -

will change everything as well.

The key is timing, we don't want either events to happen before September.

Ideal timing is between late Sept and late Oct.

If Osama is captured in July, people will forget about that in Nov.

Same with the discovery of small amts of WMDs in Iraq.

The other event is Terrorist attack on US soil -

IF we don't have anything by the end of March, any attacks on US soil will NOT hurt Bush in the polls.

In times of crisis, people will look at who has the steady hands, who can they trust. Only after the crisis is over, they would ask all the what if[s] and why not[s]..and if God forbid that we get hit again on US soil, and if the event is after end of March, there simply not enough time to deal with the what if[s] and why not[s]//

I believe the Osama or WMD in Iraq situation as the ELE event for the dims this fall - ELE = Extinction Level Event

Timing is everything and I sure hope our guys will grab Osama or WMD just in the nick of time.
10 posted on 02/09/2004 9:44:20 AM PST by FRgal4u
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To: zygoat
I hear you...........that's why ALL OF US must get our local friends to do some precinct watches.

It only takes one or two concerned (Republican) folks in one or the other area (precinct) to make a "stink" when wrong is being done.

11 posted on 02/09/2004 11:50:52 AM PST by thesummerwind (Like painted kites, those days and nights, they went flyin' by)
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To: knarf
Scottish Law Eats It!
12 posted on 02/09/2004 11:56:16 AM PST by thesummerwind (Like painted kites, those days and nights, they went flyin' by)
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