Replies

Shah of Iran scenario in Pak with nukes........

Mush has a couple of dangerous months coming up as he attempts to replace senior mil officers.

DAILYTIMES.COM
ISLAMABAD: The six-party religious alliance, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) vowed on Thursday to wage jihad not only for Kashmir but also for the protection of Pakistan’s nuclear technology, and it also accused the government and Army of withdrawing their support on both fronts.

“Our rulers as well as the army have withdrawn from the protection of Pakistan’s nuclear assets of Pakistan and now it is the duty of the masses to wage a campaign to maintain nuclear deterrence and help liberate Kashmir from the Indian yoke,” central MMA leader Qazi Hussain Ahmad, announced at a mass rally here on Kashmir Solidarity Day.

The rally, which was attended by thousands of MMA supporters including women, started from Zero Point and ended at Aabpara where the leaders addressed the participants.

Mr Hussain announced that there would be a countrywide strike throughout the country on Friday (today) to express solidarity with the nuclear scientists and to condemn government policies for humiliating them. “We have decided to launch a mass movement for the protection of our nuclear assets which guarantee our national integrity,” he said. Mr Hussain was very critical of the US government and accused it of disarming the country. “It is an effort to disarm Muslim states,” he said. “America never wanted to see any Muslim country become a nuclear power.”

He questioned why the nuclear programmes of India and Israel have not been criticised.

He said the government is paying lip service to the Kashmir cause. “Now the President talks about setting aside the UN resolutions on Kashmir and calls the Kashmir jihad terrorism,” he said.

“A stable nuclear Pakistan is necessary to win a war on the Kashmir front.”

Hi All,

I slept off my bug, and as we have a new thread here, I guess I missed some posts. Sorry about that. I am so far behind I may not be able to keep up with this thread for too long . . . so I cut and pasted a Friday "document dump" and maybe someone can play "connect the dots" if they are interested. I would have just posted the links, but the sites have long documents and I am just pulling the relevant sections or articles. I probably won't do this again, but since I have had the benefit of perusing some of the material posted here, I thought I'd return the favor (albeit all at once) . . . you have to read all of this if you want to "put it all together" . . . I'll post the other articles in a bit . . .

I did catch a post questioning who besides China is an offensive nuclear threat. At the risk of appearing to be some trenchcoat-wearing shadowy source blowing smoke in some underground garage a la "All the President's Men" I'd say . . ."follow the weapons" (missiles and WMD) . . . the threat from Iraq may have been more imminent than the world will ever know . . and the threat posed by Iran and North Korea is not properly appreciated by most . . .

I was not exaggerating when I say this is the most dangerous time in modern American history. . .

Yes, Russia is cozy with Iran, but they are not the *hub* of the axis.

If you stand back, the forest can be seen through the trees.

North Korea, Iran, Iraq . . . (where have we heard those three names before?)

"Things to watch in coming months"

Watch the Khan thing unravel in Pakistan and see where it goes

Watch the connections with ISI and AQ come into clearer focus

Watch the timing of 1998 AQ "nuclear fatwa" and Pakistan going nuclear

Watch who facilitated the North Korean-Pakistani transfers.

Watch the development of new North Korean Taepo-Dong (TD-3) ICBMs

Watch the similarity of the TD-3 to the Chinese Dong-Feng ICBM

Watch contingents of North Koreans working years at Iranian missile facilities

Watch evidence emerge that Iraq was trying to buy a North Korean ICBM

Watch the unraveling web unearth covert uranium programs of Iran and North Korea

Fired from North Korea, the TD-2 can hit everything west of a line from Chicago down to El Paso, and the TD-3 (three-stage TD-2) can hit all of US. Fired from Iran or Iraq, the TD-2 can hit east coast cities, TD-3 would cover most of US

missiles or martyrs . . . six of one a half dozen of the other . . .

From the 2001 NIE released days before the "axis of evil" speech . . .

"Most Intelligence Community agencies project that before 2015 the United States most likely will face ICBM threats from North Korea and Iran, and possibly from Iraq—barring significant changes in their political orientations—in addition to the longstanding missile forces of Russia and China."

North Korea . . .

"The Taepo Dong-2 in a two-stage ballistic missile configuration could deliver a several-hundred-kg payload up to 10,000 km—sufficient to strike Alaska, Hawaii, and parts of the continental United States. If the North uses a third stage similar to the one used on the Taepo Dong-1 in 1998 in a ballistic missile configuration, then the Taepo Dong-2 could deliver a several-hundred-kg payload up to 15,000 km—sufficient to strike all of North America. A Taepo Dong-2 flight test probably would be conducted as an SLV with a third stage to place a small payload into the same orbit the North Koreans tried to achieve in 1998. "

Iran . . .

"All agencies agree that Iran could attempt to launch an ICBM/SLV about mid-decade, although most agencies believe Iran is likely to take until the last half of the decade to do so. One agency further judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve a successful test of an ICBM before 2015.
Iranian acquisition of complete systems or major subsystems—such as North Korean TD-2 or Russian engines—could accelerate its capability to flight-test an ICBM/SLV.

If Iran were to acquire complete TD-2 systems from North Korea, it could conduct a flight test within a year of delivery, allowing time to construct a launch facility. Iran is unlikely to acquire complete ICBM/SLV systems from Russia."

Iraq . . .

"After observing North Korean missile developments the past few years, Iraq would be more likely to pursue a three-stage TD-2 approach to an SLV or ICBM, which would be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon-sized payload to the United States. Some postulations for potential Iraqi ICBM/SLV concepts and timelines from the beginning of UN prohibition relief include:

If Iraq could buy a TD-2 from North Korea, it could have a launch capability within a year or two of a purchase.

It could develop and test a TD-1-type system within a few years.

If it acquired No Dongs from North Korea, it could test an ICBM within a few years of acquisition by clustering and staging the No Dongs—similar to the clustering of Scuds for the Al Abid SLV.

If Iraq bought TD-2 engines, it could test an ICBM within about five years of the acquisition."

- - from the National Intelligence Estimate, (unclassified) December 2001 (CIA website)