Kerry 45% Bush 44% (Rasmussen Reports)

January 30, 2004--Massachusetts Senator John Kerry has taken a one-point lead over President George W. Bush in the latest Rasmussen Reports tracking survey of 1,500 Likely Voters. On the Friday morning after New Hampshire, the Democrat's front runner attracts support from 45% of the nation's voters while the President earns 44% support. Kerry's lead among Democrats is also growing as the nominating process looks forward to February 3.

It has been a remarkable two weeks for the Senator. He trailed the President by 15-points immediately prior to the Iowa caucuses.

Rasmussen Reports will release more detailed comparisons of how the voting public compares Bush and Kerry later today.

There are several reasons for the Senator's surge. Initially, his gains reflected the fact that Kerry became the front runner on the night of the Iowa caucuses. Another is that the Democrats have enjoyed a surge of positive publicity resulting from coverage of Iowa and New Hampshire.

At the same time, things have not gone as well for the President. Just before Iowa, Bush introduced an immigration proposal that was not well received. His State-of-the-Union address was overshadowed by the Democratic nominating process, and confidence in the economy has been declining.

Some Republicans indicate that they believe the public will eventually reject Kerry because he is a Massachusetts liberal. However, at this point in the process, just 37% of Americans identify the Massachusetts Senator as a liberal. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Americans view him as a moderate while 11% say he is a political conservative.

From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports will continue to monitor the race between Bush and Kerry on a daily basis. However, we will no longer measure ballot tests for other Democrats until and unless the results of future primaries suggest another contender could topple Kerry.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, Kerry now has twice the support of his nearest rivals.

In a match between President Bush and a generic Democrat, the Democrat now leads 49% to 42%.

In addition to our daily political tracking, Rasmussen Reports measures the economic confidence of American consumers and Investors on a daily basis.

The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports over the past three nights. Margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

[I posted the following analysis on another thread -- it's thesis is relevant to this thread as well!]

REALITY CHECK -- several points about this poll/polls at this point in a presidential election cycle:

1.) ARG polls ALWAYS trend lower than the major polls, e.g., in Sept and Oct ARG also put the President's job approval rating at 47% when the majors put his rating in the mid-50s.

2.) This particular ARG poll merely confirms that the President's approval ratings have returned to normative ARG levels (Sept-Nov 2003) after receiving a temporary bump in December from two intersecting phenomena: a.) the capture of Saddam Hussein, and b.) improved public perception of the economy.

3.) ALL pollsters know that a President's job approval rating closing tracks the public's perception of the economy. According to various tracking polls, the public's perception of the economy spiked in December and has declined precipitously since the January 9 jobs report. [NOTE: This decline is primarily reflected in polling data from Independents -- Republicans have consistently rated the economy positively; Democrats have consistently rated the economy negatively; Independents are the only cohort group that demonstrably alters its view from polling period to polling period.]

4.) When analyzing any pollster's data, one should always consider polling data from other Pollsters gleaned during a comparable polling period:

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY (registered voters):
53% approve 40% disapprove
[This approval rating is HIGHER than their rating for the President in early December (51%) and consistent with the President's QU approval ratings for the LAST SEVEN MONTHS. This poll also has the President LEADING Kerry in a head-to-head match-up]

RASMUSSEN (likely voters):
54% approve 45% disapprove (Rasmussen uses a 4-pt schemata which drives the disapproval rating higher than a typical 2- pt schemata]

Rasmussen's approval rating is statistically unchanged from January 1, 2004 when it put the President's approval rating at 55%.

However, Rasmussen does put the President and Kerry in a statistical tie relative to a head-to-head match-up [The increase in Kerry's match-up ratings directly correlate with a corresponding DECREASE in economic confidence post the January 9 jobs report.]

5.) The next jobs report is February 6 (I think) -- if it's a good report, i.e., exceeds the economists' expectations, the President's approval ratings will improve. If the report misses estimates, the President's approval ratings will take another hit -- IT'S AS SIMPLE AS THAT!!!!!

6.) THIS ELECTION WILL BE CLOSE FOR ONE REASON -- THE LEFT CONTROLS THE MEDIA AND, IN TURN, CONTROLS THE PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION OF THE ECONOMY/JOB MARKET. In the final analysis, this election will turn on the public's perception of the economy/job market in Oct/Nov (any other issue is tangential at best)!

7.) REMEMBER THE OLD POLITICAL AXIOM: The winter and spring belongs to the challenger(s), the summer is moot, and the fall belongs to the incumbent. POLLS WILL MEAN NOTHING UNTIL THE FALL!!!!
[EVERY PRESIDENT HAS TRAILED THE CHALLENGER DURING THE WINTER/SPRING OF THE ELECTION YEAR! THE FALL IS WHAT MATTERS!]

FYI: The President has been travelling 3-4 days a week this month; his surrogates have been every where (including Iowa and New Hampshire) -- if you weren't aware of this, it's because the leftist media refuses to cover the President/surrogates. [Clinton got more coverage yesterday than the President's gotten in weeks!]

FYI2: NEWSWEEK will probably release it's leftist-leaning, 'Kerry-for-President' poll tonight or tomorrow (just in time for the Sunday talk shows)! Expect the worst!

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No problem folks. This is a poll taken before the Kerry dirt is released. (Oh! There's a lot the general public does not know YET.)

No problem folks. This is a poll taken before the Kerry dirt is released.

(Oh! There's a lot the general public does not know YET.)