2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, January 26, 2003 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Dem Electoral Votes
Alabama	95.0	9	0
Alaska	94.0	3	0
Arizona	83.0	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	25.0	0	55
Colorado	86.0	9	0
Connecticut	27.5	0	7
Delaware	42.5	0	3
District of Columbia	2.0	0	3
Florida	70.0	27	0
Georgia	90.0	15	0
Hawaii	13.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	38.0	0	21
Indiana	89.0	11	0
Iowa	71.0	7	0
Kansas	91.5	6	0
Kentucky	93.0	8	0
Louisiana	90.0	9	0
Maine	46.0	0	4
Maryland	17.5	0	10
Massachusetts	7.5	0	12
Michigan	56.0	17	0
Minnesota	56.0	10	0
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	73.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	95.0	5	0
Nevada	77.5	5	0
New Hampshire	63.0	4	0
New Jersey	27.5	0	15
New Mexico	71.5	5	0
New York	24.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	78.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.5	7	0
Oregon	58.0	7	0
Pennsylvania	63.0	21	0
Rhode Island	7.5	0	4
South Carolina	93.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	89.0	11	0
Texas	98.0	34	0
Utah	95.0	5	0
Vermont	9.5	0	3
Virginia	92.5	13	0
Washington	48.0	0	11
West Virginia	62.5	5	0
Wisconsin	61.5	10	0
Wyoming	95.0	3	0
Totals		355	183

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 355 Electoral Votes and the Democratic candidate would receive 183 Electoral Votes.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Last week's projection:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[epluribus_2]

This is, of course, BEFORE the arrest of Bin Laden and the passing of the bill to make the tax cuts permanent. (heehee)

[Common Tator]

There are indications in the two parties strategies that have been very accurate predictors of election outcomes in the past.

Click Here

[Onelifetogive]

Delaware 42.5
Maine 46.0
Michigan 56.0
Minnesota 56.0
Oregon 58.0
Washington 48.0

This indicates that only 6 states are really in play...

[Momaw Nadon]

Thank you for the link Common Tator.

That is an interesting read.

[sirshackleton]

This is weird. I'm looking at it, and it seems overly optimistic, but when I delve further I can't find really any argument with it...at least not enough of one to make a difference in the outcome. Thanks for this.

[jpl]

Bush has a 70% chance of winning Florida? I wish I could believe that, I really do, but I just don't. I think he will win it, but to say it's 70% likely strikes me as irrational exuberance.

[Husker24]

From what I hear, Ohio is in play, and on here they have it 78% for Bush. I wouldnt read a whole lot into this.

[Momaw Nadon]

This indicates that only 6 states are really in play...

Even if President Bush loses in all of these 6 states, he still wins the election with 321 Electoral Votes.

[LS]

That's almost exactly how I have calculated it on numerous threads around here---340-350 EVs for Bush.

The only thing that could turn this into a Bush landslide would be one of the really biggies, NY, CA, or IL, going to Bush. That isn't out of the question.

[LS]

I think Bush will win Minn. and Or. I think the others are going to be tough.

[BplusK]

This figures will have to change when we know who is the final candidate for the Democrats. When people will compare George W. Bush with the actual Democrat candidate, they will be able to make their minds more specifically. I believe that many will prefer Bush.

[LS]

What you have to do is ask yourself this: "What states that Bush won in 2000 can a Dem win today?"

You won't find many. MAYBE FL with the "right" candidate . . . except any named candidate gets creamed by Bush.

Now, ask "what states that Bush lost in 2000 can he win in 04?" I think you have to say MN, NM, IO, OR, PA, WI, and possibly NJ and MI. Throw in the fact that JUST the states Bush won in 2000 already have an additional 7 electoral votes (meaning he begins with 278 and the Dem has 7 fewer) and you see the magnitude of the Dem challenge.

[LS]

I live in OH. It ain't in play, and wasn't all that close in 2000.

[jmaroneps37]

Iowa and Oregon are a bit too optimistic. Oregon has by-mail voting that spell rat voter fraud opportunity.

[The South Texan]

"Iowa and Oregon are a bit too optimistic. Oregon has by-mail voting that spell rat voter fraud opportunity."

I always thought Iowa was a conservative state because of it being rural, etc. What's the deal there?

[StriperSniper]

Interesting site.

[lasereye]

According to the new Newsweek poll, Kerry leads Bush. These numbers will start to change.

[Gorjus]

I always thought Iowa was a conservative state because of it being rural, etc.

Nobody lives on farms anymore in Iowa. Like the old saying goes: "It's easy to make a million dollars farming . . . if you start with two million dollars."

Iowa is retired people (can you say, "Social Security"?) and city people (not big cities, mind you, but not rural).

Obviously, those statements are exaggerated for effect. And in fact, Iowa was close in the last election. But lots and lots of conservatives left years ago - like I did - to go where the jobs are.