(Ex Governor) Beasley bid for Senate expected (Beasley WILL Run For Hollings' Seat!)

Charlotte Observer ^ | Jan. 14, 2004 | HENRY EICHEL

[Pubbie]

COLUMBIA - Former S.C. Gov. David Beasley is expected to announce today that he is jumping into an already-crowded pool of candidates for the U.S. Senate seat that will come open when Fritz Hollings retires at the end of this year.

Beasley, 46, a Republican who was defeated for re-election in 1998, has called a 1 p.m. news conference in Columbia. GOP sources say Beasley has already told a number of people that he will make the race.

The former governor would neither confirm nor deny that in a telephone interview Tuesday from Darlington, S.C. But he did say, "I'll definitely have a decision."

Four other Republican candidates have been campaigning for months: 4th District U.S. House member Jim DeMint of Greenville, former S.C. Attorney General Charlie Condon and developer Thomas Ravenel, both of Charleston, and Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride.

The primary is June 8, with a June 22 runoff if necessary. The winner will face state Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, who has only token opposition for the Democratic nomination. Hollings, a Democrat, is leaving the Senate after 38 years.

Because the Republicans hold only a two-vote majority in the Senate, both parties are expected to wage an all-out effort to capture the seat in the November general election.

Although DeMint, who has represented his Upstate district since 1998, is sitting on a campaign bank account of about $1.5 million, the most of any candidate in the race so far, Beasley's entry would change the race dramatically, political observers say.

"As soon as he gets in, he'll be the front runner," said former Democratic Gov. Jim Hodges, who defeated Beasley for re-election in 1998. "None of the other candidates has really cemented a statewide base."

A private poll in October of likely Republican primary voters had Beasley at 24 percent, with DeMint and Condon at 8 percent each. Former Lt. Gov. Bob Peeler, who decided not to run, had 16 percent. The poll was conducted by GOP political consultant Richard Quinn, who has been encouraging Beasley to run.

Political observers said any poll at this early stage would show Beasley ahead because of his name recognition. Except for Condon, who got a disappointing 16 percent of the vote in the 2002 Republican primary for governor, none of the others is well known outside his home area.

However, a spokesman for DeMint said Tuesday that the congressman is unfazed by Beasley's entry into the race.

"Our plan has always been focused on us, on what we were going to do, and never on anybody else," said campaign press secretary Terry Sullivan.

"Like it or not," he said, "campaigns are about raising and spending money, and nobody is going to raise more and spend more than us, and nobody is going to spend it smarter than us."

Another DeMint strength is his 4th District political base. Twenty percent of the total Republican primary vote statewide comes out of the three-county area that takes in Greenville, Spartanburg, and Union counties.

But Beasley has a strong political base as well: the religious conservatives who make up about 30 percent of Republican primary voters. "There's been no Republican primary candidate who's been able to sweep up the Christian right like Beasley," said Francis Marion University political science professor Neal Thigpen.

The former governor has baggage, however. Some polls have shown him with high negative ratings. Political observers say that reflects several factors, including Beasley's push in 1996 for removing the Confederate flag from the State House dome after earlier supporting it there. The flag was removed in 2000, after Beasley left office.

[Pubbie]

*Ping*!

Now we have a heavy hitter candidate in SC!

Right now we have very strong candidates in all the 5 Open Southern Senate seats!

If the WH can convince Harris to stay out of the race in Florida, then we could see the GOP gain all 5 seats this November.

[TheBigB]

If Beasley lost his re-election race for Governor, is he really a strong candidate?

[Pubbie]

Johnny, you should be especially happy the Beasley is in!

[JohnnyZ]

I wish we had more than that one poll to go on. I worry about DeMint 'cause he's from upstate and supports free trade, two things stupid South Carolinians (and there are many of them) are willing to vote against even if they agree with him on everything else. 'Course stupid South Carolinians could vote against Beasley because of the flag, too, but I don't think that's such a big deal any more. It took a perfect storm of events to get Beasley defeated in '98, and I think he'd win in '04 without much trouble.

[The Old Hoosier]

He polls strongest against Inez.

[Pubbie]

Even in the 1998 race, he still got 48% despite all of his problems.

I agree that he will win too.

[JohnnyZ]

If Beasley lost his re-election race for Governor, is he really a strong candidate?

See number 3. It took a strong Democrat year in '98, heavy black turnout, massive anti-Beasley spending by gambling interests, and fresh voter anger over the relocation of the Confederate flag to sweep Jim Hodges into office.

2004 will be a GOP year, there's no indication of strong black turnout, gambling won't be an issue, and the flag thing is over and has been resolved. Some people will hold grudges, but not enough to make a difference, I think.

News reports just indicate Beasley did, in fact, announce today that he's running, so it's officially official.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

If Beasley is a favorite of the Christian right vote in South Carolina, he may indeed be our best candidate. Who better to run when Howard "Job is my favorite book of the New Testament" Dean is on the ballot?

[TheBigB]

I'll take your word for it and cross my fingers. Wonder if DeMint might pull out and run for reelection to the House.

[Pubbie]

I'd suggest DeMint stay in the House now that Beasley is in - DeMint is a very good Conservative (He voted against the Prescription Drug bill).

He can build up seniority in the House for a long time rather than run against Beasley.

[Jan Hus]

Beasley is a RHINO.He lost to "Goober Hodges" who was dumped big time by Mark Sanford.He got a "Profile in Courage" award from the Kennedy School for being a "loser" and taught a course in "losing" up there at Harvard as a consolation prize.He's a neer do well opportunist who jumped parties to run for Governor in 1994 or 95.He'an empty suit at best!

[JohnnyZ]

DeMint term-limited himself. He's in this all the way, and without polling it's hard to tell what his upstate location and free trade stance will mean in terms of votes. It's all very well for us to guess at weaknesses and whatnot (as I've been doing), but the evidence is anecdotal and anecdotes can be very misleading.

So who knows, he could go all the way. Or Condon could. Or Ravenel. Or, as is my guess, Beasley.

[KQQL]

SC:
The poll showed none of the GOP candidates could decisively beat Democratic candidate Inez Tenenbaum.

Beasley 45% v Tenenbaum 35%
http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/sunnews/news/local/7465708.htm

[KQQL]

Quinn's poll question on primary runoff choices is especially significant, Thigpen said.

It shows Condon barely edging DeMint 23 percent to 22 percent, with 55 percent undecided.

But Beasley beats Condon 44 percent to 28 percent

and DeMint 44 percent to 24 percent,

while the undecideds drop drastically.

[samanella]

Sanford will be a one-termer, too. He is losing strength in the Upstate. I hope Bob Inglis re-runs for Congress or Senate. He is the best of the best.

[JohnnyZ]

Sanford will be a one-termer, too.

Good one! Ha ha!

[republicanwizard]

If he is a friend of the Christian Right, then, when combined with residual affection African-Americans may have for his brave stand, he would easily sweep the field.

[Moose4]

Damn. That's all we need, David Weaseley. I thought this guy'd had a stake put through his political heart when he sold out on the flag issue and got dumped by a weak Jim "lottery lottery lottery lottery" Hodges in 1998.

Watch out for this guy. He makes "Zig Zag" Zell Miller look consistent.

}:-)4