Skip to comments.Ohio Woman Admits Lying in Lotto Case
Posted on 01/08/2004 10:02:49 AM PST by AppyPappyEdited on 04/29/2004 2:03:40 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
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More likely, IMO, the pressure exerted by the local DA, in response to politicians who really do not want each giant jackpot to draw hordes of scam artists. This would complicate administration and damage the lottery's appeal, thus reducing revenues.
True, but then you have NO shot at winning.
When you play the lottery, you have VIRTUALLY NO shot.
I'm happy some folks feel there's a difference.
I think most people that play the lottery know the odds are not in their favor. Same goes with any gambling, except for poker if you know how to play.
When the lottery gets into the high multi-millions, I will plop down $20 bucks just to have a shot. It is not like I expect to win but it is fun to dream about the possiblities. It is not as though $20 bucks is going to kill me.
BUBBA:Cain't we jest move on already?
On the contrary, I specifically said that the qualitative components are not reflected in the expectation value. I mentioned the political power that accompanies $100 million; others mentioned the entertainment value of anticipating a big win. But I don't take those things into account when I play: I only look at the expectation value.
The expectation value in the case of Powerball is the average payout per $1 play. That's strictly calculated in terms of dollars. Pick-3 games typically have a payout of $500 for a $1 play, so the expectation value is fixed at 50¢. There's a fool's game for you. Powerball seems to be even worse: one chance in something like 80 million to win 10 million dollars is only 12.5¢ on average.
[Geek alert: the expectation value for Powerball is actually much more complicated. There are a bunch of different ways to win smaller amounts of money, and these actually dominate at the low end, to the point that it's much better than a $500 pick-3 game. Then, too, you have to correct for the probability of multiple jackpot winners, which brings it down at the high end.]
If the payout gets high enough, however, the average payout--again, strictly in terms of dollars--becomes greater than $1 for a $1 play for that particular drawing. This is possible because the total probability includes a chain of prior drawings where no jackpot was paid out at all. You don't have to worry about the prior drawings when you play, though, as you have no chance of losing them. Those losers have already lost. A fraction of those payouts, however, is still in the kitty.
So the next time the Powerball jackpot gets really high, put a few bucks on it, and think to yourself: "This is a good investment. A lot of fools paid a lot of money to create this opportunity for me."
There was a winner of a huge jackpot here in IL in the last few years. He wasn't poor either. He owned a brewery. I think he split a jackpot over $200 million with another winner.
Your assuming he/she won't hit the big one. Of course that is a good assumption but you never know. I play once in awhile too and assure you I save atleast 30% of my income yearly in my 401k, stock account and regular savings. I hardly think $100 bucks a year will do me much harm. Sure it is probably a waste of money, but so are a lot of things.
Atleast when I buy a ticket, I can dream at the possiblities for a day or two. That is worth the money in itself.
Unfortunately some, with pasts, haven't yet passed.
My deepest regrets.
The probability of the event is constant, determined by the Powerball format. The jackpot varies (increasing if the previous draw produced no big winner). If the jackpot rises above $70-million-something, by basic arithmetic the expectation rises above $1.
The bottom line is that it's cheap entertainment, and harmless if you treat it as one item in a total entertainment budget you can afford without compromising higher budget priorities.
Note added in proof: Having calculated it myself after the fact, it seems to add about 17¢ to the expectation value. It does dominate, but it's less than 50¢. Don't believe everything you read, I guess.
It's effectively impossible if the cropier is properly launching the ball in the direction opposite the wheel's spin -- at first contact, the ball bounces hard, and rather unpredictably, in the direction of the wheel's spin.
Of course, all bets must be on the table before the ball leaves the croupier's hand.
This isn't a hard-math exercize. While the $73M would indeed net out at about 30M, the ENTERTAINMENT value is still $73M. And I doubt you'd turn down the $30M just because it's less than 73....
The lottery costs us all a lot more than that. It feeds into the belief that the world owes each of us a living.
Don't want to work hard? Don't feel like depriving yourself of that video collection by saving? Hey, your ship just hasn't come in yet! Keep buying tickets, and you'll eventually get the lifestyle that you're entitled to!
Hucksters in Vegas sell this fantasy all the time, but its easy to point out that they are weasels getting rich from ordinary people's fantasies. And, they do provide a bit more entertainment value and a cheap buffet to the suckers than the lottery. But when the almighty State sanctions this, it legitimizes the entire welfare mentality.
This crazy b!tch in OH just took her entitlement delusions to their logical conclusion. Still, I hope her kids get taken away, while she's in prison until far past her childbearing years. We don't need her pups learning from her example.
Is that true? In The Eudaemonic Pie (supposedly a true story), a group of hackers computed the outcome based on the timing of the ball's motion. It seems that they were able to place bets after the ball was in play. The prediction wasn't perfect, of course, but it doesn't take much of a statistical edge to beat roulette on average.
You didn't say WHICH lottery you got the 5-of-6, but if you get the first five in a row on Powerball, you get 100K, no matter how many matching tickees were sold. The pari-mutuel nature of Powerball is only on the top jackpot prize (where you share a cut). All other winning prizes are a static amount.
The payouts are amusing to note between the different games in the various states. In Lotto South, which is VA, GA and KY, if you get five-for-six, you get a whopping $750.00. But if you play a Pick Five and get all five, you get 100 Gees.
Powerball is slightly easier to win, odds-wise, than Mega Mullions. That's because Mega has that sixth ball drawn from a larger set than the Powerball second set. For that reason - and the fact that there are more states in Powerball, which more rapidly gin up the size of the jackpots - I hope Tennessee's new lottery joins Powerball. But the lottery director comes from GA, which is a Mega-Mullions state. So it's anyone's guess right now.
We start the scratch-and-sniff games in two weeks, the online pickems start in March. I imagine we'll have a daily Pick 3 (perhaps two per day, a noon and night), a Pick 4 alternate days, a Pick 5, and a bi-weekly Lotto Tennessee (pick six from one set of numbers 1-49 if my guess is right).
The new TN lottery is kinda fun to watch. When the voters finally lifted the constitutioinal ban on lotteries, you could see that the various powers that be wanted a Nice Little Quiet Lottery to satisfy the nutcases who voted for it. Instead, we hired the Big Gorilla of state lotto directors away from GA, paid her handsomely with lots of bonuses, she then got the lottery to start up three weeks ahead of schedule,and it looks like we're going to have the Tennessee Lotto Spectacular. The local newspaper, lib-rag The Tennessean, is clearly uncomfortable. First, the lottery setup is that the Lottery Corporation is a quasi-private corp, not a state agency. As such, it can hire whom it wants and pay whatever it takes to get the best. This has angered the paper, who would rather have had it be a state agency staffed by Inner City Minorities who would love the chance to be a part of another quagmired bureaucracy. When the lottery hired Rebecca Paul and paid her up to %750K with bonuses, you could FEEL the paper quietly calculating how many Houses For Humanity that sum would buld in a poor neighborhood or how many TennCare patients it would pay for.
It's really comical.
Absolutely. These giant jackpots have a 100% chance of being given away. If you have a ticket, you have a chance, no matter how remote. No tickee, no chancee.
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