I know he believes this but I think he's wrong. I believe his regime is in more danger if it keeps it's nukes than it would be if it gave them up.
I'm afraid that Kim is entirely correct. This is the core of our problem, and why the North Korean problem has defied resolution. Kim cannot fix his country, even if he wanted to. He needs tribute from his neighbors in order to feed his people. Since one cannot demand tribute except from a position of strength, Kim needs a real big stick.
Their once formidable conventional threat is now a rusted out joke. North Korea fields a larger military than they can afford, and the quality suffers badly for it. Forty year old tanks with a quarter tank of gas each are not credible threats to anyone in Kim's neighborhood. A conventional war would lead to carnage for the South and utter defeat for the North.
Kim is stuck. He has to deliver, if only to keep himself in power. When his people starve in large numbers it threatens his pool of manpower, and he runs the risk of collapse. The last ten years have brought North Korea into new lows of misery, they won't survive another ten more like this. Kim is running out of time, but sees that nuclear weapons are a great way to get people to listen to his demands. He truly has no other way out.
He cannot make peace. Fear of foreign threats gives his people purpose and focus. It explains why they are miserable, and why they suffer. He cannot make war. The only result of aggression is total defeat. What he can make are threats, veiled or overt, and use fear as a bargaining tool. Any conflict with North Korea could kill millions and lay waste to entire cities; the temptation to pay Kim off is clear and understandable.
His neighbors understand that he has no options, and that he is a desperate man in a tight corner. Once you realize that Kim has no options that will allow him to keep his head attached to his neck, and that his life is the only one he cares about, you'll understand his assessment of the situation, which is, simply put, "The risk of having nuclear weapons is far less than the risk of being unarmed."
No siree, NO champagne here, and I for one won't let the Bush relection 2004 bandwagon sweep me into a mindset of euphoria over this. This is EXACTLY how they co-opted the Clintonites. It is still time for military, intelligence and diplomacy in our dealings with North Korea.
I would say it again to all: NO 2004 PARTISAN RE-ELECTION POLITICS AND NAIVE WESTERN, JUDEO CHRISTIAN SUPER OPTIMISM ABOUT ANY MOVES BY THE CURRENT KWP REGIME IN PYONGYANG!
People MUST slow down and realize how this beast actually works!!!